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Gallup also noted <ref>http://media.gallup.com/PDF/FAQ/HowArePolls.pdf</ref> that insufficient sample size, the random selection technique used in creating the sampling frame and the execution of the sample were important standard and primary caveats.
Gallup also noted <ref>http://media.gallup.com/PDF/FAQ/HowArePolls.pdf</ref> that insufficient sample size, the random selection technique used in creating the sampling frame and the execution of the sample were important standard and primary caveats.
== Political betting markets vs. political opinion polls ==
[[Political betting markets]] are markets where individuals wager on elections.
=== Arguments on why political betting markets are better than political polls ===
*[https://theconversation.com/us-midterms-why-gambling-markets-often-predict-elections-more-accurately-than-polls-194189 US midterms: why gambling markets often predict elections more accurately than polls], TheConversation.com, 2022
*[https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/28/inside-the-fight-to-legalize-election-betting-before-the-midterms-00063693 Political betting: Is it a 'gambling den' or 'better than polls'?], Politico, 2022
*[https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-political-scene/betting-on-elections-can-tell-us-a-lot-why-is-it-mostly-illegal Betting on Elections Can Tell Us a Lot. Why Is It Mostly Illegal?], ''The New Yorker'', 2022
*[https://reason.com/2022/11/10/the-election-betting-markets-fell-short-theyre-still-the-most-flexible-predictor/ The Election Betting Markets Fell Short. They're Still the Most Flexible Predictor.], Reason.com, 2022
*[http://ubplj.org/index.php/jpm/article/view/981 Prediction markets vs polls – an examination of accuracy for the 2008 and 2012 elections], ''Journal of Prediction Markets'', Jan 8, 2015, DOI: https://doi.org/10.5750/jpm.v8i3.981
The history of political betting markets:
*[https://academic.oup.com/edited-volume/36333/chapter-abstract/318726499?redirectedFrom=fulltext The Long History of Political Betting Markets: An International Perspective], Oxford Academic
*[https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/0895330041371277 Historical Presidential Betting Markets], American Economic Association (JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES, VOL. 18, NO. 2, SPRING 2004, (pp. 127-141).
=== Track record of the website ElectionBettingOdds.com in terms of accuracy ===
The website [https://electionbettingodds.com/ ElectionBettingOdds.com] averages live odds that it pulls from FTX.com, Betfair.com, PredictIt.org, Smarkets.com, and Polymarket.com. The odds are then volume-weighted, meaning that the odds for each market are multiplied by that market's share of quarterly volume.<ref>[https://electionbettingodds.com/about.html ElectionBettingOdds.com FAQ]</ref>
*[https://electionbettingodds.com/about.html ElectionBettingOdds.com FAQ]
=== How accurate is the website ElectionBettingOdds.com? ===
The website ElectionBettingOdds.com has a respectable track record in terms of accuracy as can be seen at: [https://electionbettingodds.com/TrackRecord.html Track Record - Election Betting Odds], 2022
[[File:ElectionBettingOdds website accuracy.jpg|thumbnail|center|1600px|Screen shot from the website ElectionBettingOdds.com.[https://electionbettingodds.com/TrackRecord.html] The website is run by Maxim Lott and [[John Stossel]].]]
{{Clear}}
=== 2019: ''Judgement and Decision Making Journal'': Another approach ===
According to the abstract for the 2019 journal article ''Are markets more accurate than polls? The surprising informational value of “just asking”'' published in the ''Judgment and Decision Making'' journal:
{{Cquote|Psychologists typically measure beliefs and preferences using self-reports, whereas economists are much more likely to infer them from behavior. Prediction markets appear to be a victory for the economic approach, having yielded more accurate probability estimates than opinion polls or experts for a wide variety of events, all without ever asking for self-reported beliefs. We conduct the most direct comparison to date of prediction markets to simple self-reports using a within-subject design. Our participants traded on the likelihood of geopolitical events. Each time they placed a trade, they first had to report their belief that the event would occur on a 0–100 scale. When previously validated aggregation algorithms were applied to self-reported beliefs, they were at least as accurate as prediction-market prices in predicting a wide range of geopolitical events. Furthermore, the combination of approaches was significantly more accurate than prediction-market prices alone, indicating that self-reports contained information that the market did not efficiently aggregate. Combining measurement techniques across behavioral and social sciences may have greater benefits than previously thought."<ref>''Judgment and Decision Making'', Vol. 14, No. 2, March 2019, pp. 135-147</ref>}}
For the full Journal article, please see: [https://journal.sjdm.org/18/18919/jdm18919.html Are markets more accurate than polls? The surprising informational value of “just asking”] ''Judgment and Decision Making'', Vol. 14, No. 2, March 2019, pp. 135-147
== See also ==
== See also ==