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→Expected growth of Muslim population in the UK
Assuming patterns of net immigration do not change significantly, the Pew Forum thinks that there will be just over 5.5 million British Muslims, representing 8.2 per cent of the UK population, by 2030.
Assuming patterns of net immigration do not change significantly, the Pew Forum thinks that there will be just over 5.5 million British Muslims, representing 8.2 per cent of the UK population, by 2030.
In April 2010, [[Eric Kaufmann]] indicated concerning the future of Islam in Europe:
{{cquote|I address this in some detail in the book, as well is in a [http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/features/europes-muslim-future recent article in the April issue of Prospect magazine] here in Britain. The short answer is that I don’t foresee a Muslim-majority Europe in this century or in the next. Why? Mainly because [[Islam|Muslim]] birthrates are plunging both in Europe and the Muslim world. Already, Iran, Tunisia, Turkey, Azerbaijan and several other Muslim countries have replacement-level fertility or below. In the UK, Bangladeshi and Pakistani fertility has halved in a generation and is now under 3 children per woman. This means their long-term growth will begin to tail off. The other part of the equation is the rise of non-Muslim immigrant groups (African and West Indian Christians, Hindus, Buddhists and other Eastern faiths) who are also increasing and therefore making Europe more plural and, in the process, rendering it harder for Muslims to increase their share of the population.
That said, Muslim membership retention and in-group marriage is exceptionally high (over 90 per cent) and they are a much younger population than the host society. So they are on course for steady growth. My colleagues and I expect their fertility to fall to host levels by 2030, but they will still make up 5-15 per cent of most West European countries by 2050 and 10-25 per cent by 2100. This is a major change from the 2-6 per cent levels of today<ref>[http://www.mercatornet.com/articles/view/shall_the_religious_inherit_the_earth/#sthash.nE0JGi2Y.dpuf ''Shall the religious inherit the earth?''], 2010 Interview with [[Eric Kaufmann]] by MercatorNet</ref>}}
The 2019 journal article ''When will European Muslim population be majority and in which country?'' published in ''PSU Research Review'' indicates: "Among three scenarios, the most likely mid-point migration scenario identifies 13 countries where the Muslim population will be majority between years 2085 and 2215: Cyprus (in year 2085), Sweden (2125), France (2135), Greece (2135), Belgium (2140), Bulgaria (2140), Italy (2175), Luxembourg (2175), the UK (2180), Slovenia (2190), Switzerland (2195), Ireland (2200) and Lithuania (2215). The 17 remaining countries will never reach majority in the next 200 years".<ref>[https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/PRR-12-2018-0034/full/html When will European Muslim population be majority and in which country?], Pierre Rostan, Alexandra Rostan, PSU Research Review, ISSN: 2399-1747, Open Access. Article publication date: 28 August 2019 Reprints & Permissions, Issue publication date: 28 August 2019</ref>
None of this is an exact science, and [http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol19/16/19-16.pdf some demographers] say total fertility rate overestimates the lifetime fertility of immigrants because it doesn’t adjust for the fact that they tend to have children soon after arriving.<ref>[http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/factcheck-will-britain-have-a-muslim-majority-by-2050/13690 FactCheck: will Britain have a Muslim majority by 2050?]</ref>}}
None of this is an exact science, and [http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol19/16/19-16.pdf some demographers] say total fertility rate overestimates the lifetime fertility of immigrants because it doesn’t adjust for the fact that they tend to have children soon after arriving.<ref>[http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/factcheck-will-britain-have-a-muslim-majority-by-2050/13690 FactCheck: will Britain have a Muslim majority by 2050?]</ref>}}