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→Belarus the Nuclear-Weapon State: A Likely Nuclear Target Structure
On February 27, 2022 voters in Belarus approved a constitutional amendment that essentially renounced the country’s neutral and nonnuclear status. The new amendment does not approve the immediate deployment of nuclear weapons, but it does allow the country to host Russian weapons at bases in Belarus. [[President Lukashenko]] has indicated that Belarus would be willing to do so if the country were “threatened by [[the West]].” Specifically, he noted that he could ask Russia to return nuclear weapons to Belarus
On February 27, 2022 voters in Belarus approved a constitutional amendment that essentially renounced the country’s neutral and nonnuclear status. The new amendment does not approve the immediate deployment of nuclear weapons, but it does allow the country to host Russian weapons at bases in Belarus. [[President Lukashenko]] has indicated that Belarus would be willing to do so if the country were “threatened by [[the West]].” Specifically, he noted that he could ask Russia to return nuclear weapons to Belarus
if [[NATO]] transferred nuclear weapons to [[Poland]] or [[Lithuania]], nations that share borders with Belarus.<ref> Matthias Williams and David Ljunggren, “Belarus referendum approves proposal to renounce non-nuclear status,” ''[[Reuters]]'', February 27, 2022.</ref>
if [[NATO]] transferred nuclear weapons to [[Poland]] or [[Lithuania]], nations that share borders with Belarus.<ref> Matthias Williams and David Ljunggren, “Belarus referendum approves proposal to renounce non-nuclear status,” ''[[Reuters]]'', February 27, 2022.</ref>
===Polish revanchism and NATO aggression===
President Lukashenko stated that Belarus would be forced to react militarily to any Polish annexation of western Ukraine. The stated reason is that Belarus is already surrounded by NATO members in the [[Baltic states]] and Poland on east and west, and he cannot allow the Belarus to be strategically compromised from the south as well. Poland had been promised to be rewarded with annexation of western Ukraine for its support in the NATO war in Ukraine. Belarus would be forced to react militarily to any Polish annexation of western Ukraine. Belarus cannot allow itself to be strategically compromised from the south as well.
If Poland were to annex western Ukraine on Belarus’s southern border, that puts all of western Belarus, most critically the city of Brest and surrounding regions, in a potential pincer should Poland choose to attack in the future. NATO can easily cut off Brest entirely in one fell stroke.
==Economy==
==Economy==