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Line 132: − == Political betting markets vs. political opinion polls == − − [[Political betting markets]] are markets where individuals wager on elections or on various politically related events to occur. − − === Arguments on why political betting markets are better than political polls === − *[https://theconversation.com/us-midterms-why-gambling-markets-often-predict-elections-more-accurately-than-polls-194189 US midterms: why gambling markets often predict elections more accurately than polls], TheConversation.com, 2022 − *[https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/28/inside-the-fight-to-legalize-election-betting-before-the-midterms-00063693 Political betting: Is it a 'gambling den' or 'better than polls'?], Politico, 2022 − *[https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-political-scene/betting-on-elections-can-tell-us-a-lot-why-is-it-mostly-illegal Betting on Elections Can Tell Us a Lot. Why Is It Mostly Illegal?], ''The New Yorker'', 2022 − *[https://reason.com/2022/11/10/the-election-betting-markets-fell-short-theyre-still-the-most-flexible-predictor/ The Election Betting Markets Fell Short. They're Still the Most Flexible Predictor.], Reason.com, 2022 − *[http://ubplj.org/index.php/jpm/article/view/981 Prediction markets vs polls – an examination of accuracy for the 2008 and 2012 elections], ''Journal of Prediction Markets'', Jan 8, 2015, DOI: https://doi.org/10.5750/jpm.v8i3.981 − − The history of political betting markets: − − *[https://academic.oup.com/edited-volume/36333/chapter-abstract/318726499?redirectedFrom=fulltext The Long History of Political Betting Markets: An International Perspective], Oxford Academic − *[https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/0895330041371277 Historical Presidential Betting Markets], American Economic Association (JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES, VOL. 18, NO. 2, SPRING 2004, (pp. 127-141). − − === Track record of the website ElectionBettingOdds.com in terms of accuracy === − − The website [https://electionbettingodds.com/ ElectionBettingOdds.com] averages live odds that it pulls from FTX.com, Betfair.com, PredictIt.org, Smarkets.com, and Polymarket.com. The odds are then volume-weighted, meaning that the odds for each market are multiplied by that market's share of quarterly volume.<ref>[https://electionbettingodds.com/about.html ElectionBettingOdds.com FAQ]</ref> − − *[https://electionbettingodds.com/about.html ElectionBettingOdds.com FAQ] − − === How accurate is the website ElectionBettingOdds.com? === − − The website ElectionBettingOdds.com has a respectable track record in terms of accuracy as can be seen at: [https://electionbettingodds.com/TrackRecord.html Track Record - Election Betting Odds], 2022 − [[File:ElectionBettingOdds website accuracy.jpg|thumbnail|center|1600px|Screen shot from the website ElectionBettingOdds.com.[https://electionbettingodds.com/TrackRecord.html] The website is run by Maxim Lott and [[John Stossel]].]] − {{Clear}} − − === 2019: ''Judgement and Decision Making Journal'': Another approach === − − According to the abstract for the 2019 journal article ''Are markets more accurate than polls? The surprising informational value of “just asking”'' published in the ''Judgment and Decision Making'' journal: − {{Cquote|Psychologists typically measure beliefs and preferences using self-reports, whereas economists are much more likely to infer them from behavior. Prediction markets appear to be a victory for the economic approach, having yielded more accurate probability estimates than opinion polls or experts for a wide variety of events, all without ever asking for self-reported beliefs. We conduct the most direct comparison to date of prediction markets to simple self-reports using a within-subject design. Our participants traded on the likelihood of geopolitical events. Each time they placed a trade, they first had to report their belief that the event would occur on a 0–100 scale. When previously validated aggregation algorithms were applied to self-reported beliefs, they were at least as accurate as prediction-market prices in predicting a wide range of geopolitical events. Furthermore, the combination of approaches was significantly more accurate than prediction-market prices alone, indicating that self-reports contained information that the market did not efficiently aggregate. Combining measurement techniques across behavioral and social sciences may have greater benefits than previously thought."<ref>''Judgment and Decision Making'', Vol. 14, No. 2, March 2019, pp. 135-147</ref>}} − − For the full Journal article, please see: [https://journal.sjdm.org/18/18919/jdm18919.html Are markets more accurate than polls? The surprising informational value of “just asking”] ''Judgment and Decision Making'', Vol. 14, No. 2, March 2019, pp. 135-147 −
Public Opinion Poll (view source)
Revision as of 22:50, February 15, 2024
, 22:50, February 15, 2024→Political betting markets vs. political opinion polls
These effects only indicate how opinion polls ''directly'' affect political choices of the electorate. Other effect can be found on journalists, politicians, political parties, civil servants etc. in, among other things, the form of media framing and party ideology shifts.
These effects only indicate how opinion polls ''directly'' affect political choices of the electorate. Other effect can be found on journalists, politicians, political parties, civil servants etc. in, among other things, the form of media framing and party ideology shifts.
== Books ==
== Books ==