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''Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?'' is a 2005 book by Philip E. Tetlock (The newer edition of the book was published in 2017). Philip E. Tetlock is a Canadian-American [[political science]] writer, and is currently the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, where he is cross-appointed at the Wharton School and the School of Arts and Sciences.  

''Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?'' is a 2005 book by Philip E. Tetlock (The newer edition of the book was published in 2017). Philip E. Tetlock is a Canadian-American [[political science]] writer, and is currently the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, where he is cross-appointed at the Wharton School and the School of Arts and Sciences.  

The book notes how political experts are often no more accurate at making political predictions than most people, and in instances where they are wrong, they are rarely held accountable.<ref>[https://archive.ph/saXJ2 Everybody’S an Expert:Putting predictions to the test] by Louis Menand, ''The New Yorker'', 2005</ref>

The book notes how political experts are often no more accurate at making political predictions than most people, and in instances where they are wrong, they are rarely held accountable.<ref>[https://archive.ph/saXJ2 Everybody’S an Expert:Putting predictions to the test] by Louis Menand, ''The New Yorker'', 2005</ref> The book analyzed which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. APA PsycNet notes that Tetlock shows that there is a "perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgment and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits - the single minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat."<ref>[https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2005-09833-000 Expert political judgement: How good is it? How can we know?], APA PsycNet, American Psychological Association</ref>

 

Tetlock co-authored the 2016 book ''[[Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction]]''. Jason Zweig wrote about the book Superforcasting in the [[Wall Street Journal]]: “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”<ref>Zweig, Jason. "[https://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/09/25/can-you-see-the-future-probably-better-than-professional-forecasters/ Can You See the Future? Probably Better Than Professional Forecasters]". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved September 25, 2015. I think Philip Tetlock's "Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction," ..., is the most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's "Thinking, Fast and Slow."</ref> The ''Harvard Business Review'' likened the book Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction to the book How Not to Be Wrong: The Power of Mathematical Thinking by Jordan Ellenberg.<ref> Frick, Walter. "[https://hbr.org/2015/10/question-certainty Question Certainty]". Harvard Business Review. Retrieved September 26, 2015.</ref>

Tetlock co-authored the 2016 book ''[[Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction]]''. Jason Zweig wrote about the book Superforcasting in the [[Wall Street Journal]]: “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”<ref>Zweig, Jason. "[https://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/09/25/can-you-see-the-future-probably-better-than-professional-forecasters/ Can You See the Future? Probably Better Than Professional Forecasters]". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved September 25, 2015. I think Philip Tetlock's "Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction," ..., is the most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's "Thinking, Fast and Slow."</ref> The ''Harvard Business Review'' likened the book Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction to the book How Not to Be Wrong: The Power of Mathematical Thinking by Jordan Ellenberg.<ref> Frick, Walter. "[https://hbr.org/2015/10/question-certainty Question Certainty]". Harvard Business Review. Retrieved September 26, 2015.</ref>