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The book notes how political experts are often no more accurate at making political predictions than most people, and in instances where they are wrong, they are rarely held accountable.<ref>[https://archive.ph/saXJ2 Everybody’S an Expert:Putting predictions to the test] by Louis Menand, ''The New Yorker'', 2005</ref> The book analyzed which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. APA PsycNet notes that Tetlock shows that there is a "perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgment and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits - the single minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat."<ref>[https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2005-09833-000 Expert political judgement: How good is it? How can we know?], APA PsycNet, American Psychological Association</ref>

The book notes how political experts are often no more accurate at making political predictions than most people, and in instances where they are wrong, they are rarely held accountable.<ref>[https://archive.ph/saXJ2 Everybody’S an Expert:Putting predictions to the test] by Louis Menand, ''The New Yorker'', 2005</ref> The book analyzed which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. APA PsycNet notes that Tetlock shows that there is a "perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgment and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits - the single minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat."<ref>[https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2005-09833-000 Expert political judgement: How good is it? How can we know?], APA PsycNet, American Psychological Association</ref>

Tetlock co-authored the 2016 book ''[[Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction]]''. Jason Zweig wrote about the book Superforcasting in the [[Wall Street Journal]]: “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”<ref>Zweig, Jason. "[https://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/09/25/can-you-see-the-future-probably-better-than-professional-forecasters/ Can You See the Future? Probably Better Than Professional Forecasters]". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved September 25, 2015. I think Philip Tetlock's "Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction," ..., is the most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's "Thinking, Fast and Slow."</ref> The ''Harvard Business Review'' likened the book Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction to the book How Not to Be Wrong: The Power of Mathematical Thinking by Jordan Ellenberg.<ref> Frick, Walter. "[https://hbr.org/2015/10/question-certainty Question Certainty]". Harvard Business Review. Retrieved September 26, 2015.</ref>

Tetlock co-authored the 2016 book ''[[Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction]]''.  

== Book overview ==

== Book overview ==