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→Weather forecasting
A '''forecast''' is a statement of expected future occurrences such as events or trends. Investopedia defines forecasting as "a technique that uses historical data as inputs to make informed estimates that are predictive in determining the direction of future trends."<ref>[https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/forecasting.asp Forecasting: What It Is, How It’s Used in Business and Investing]</ref> A [[business forecast]] is management's best estimate of what will happen during the forecast period.
A '''forecast''' is a statement of expected future occurrences such as events or trends. Investopedia defines forecasting as "a technique that uses historical data as inputs to make informed estimates that are predictive in determining the direction of future trends."<ref>[https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/forecasting.asp Forecasting: What It Is, How It’s Used in Business and Investing]</ref> A [[business forecast]] is management's best estimate of what will happen during the forecast period.
== Characteristics of excellent forecasters according to data from the Good Judgement Project ==
== Personal characteristics of superforecasters according to the research ==
Characteristics of "superforecasters":<ref>[https://jaknguyen.medium.com/superforecasting-the-art-and-science-of-prediction-summary-7d2bb0eea2e1 Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction — Summary]</ref><ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20180719205012/https://research-doc.credit-suisse.com/docView?language=ENG&format=PDF&source_id=em&document_id=1053681521&serialid=gRAGx5o9KjpeAGBLPq7bpyJRa6r6fj06KjHB6PGBbGU%3D Sharpening Your Forecasting Skills], Credit Suisse's overview of the Good Judgement Project's research and the work of Philip E. Tetlock</ref>
- Temperament: Cautious, Humble, Non-[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Determinism Determinist].
- Cognition: [[Openness|Open-Minded]] (Beliefs are hypotheses to be tested, not treasures to be protected), Intelligent, Curious (Intellectually curious, enjoy puzzles and mental challenges), Reflective ([[Introversion|Introspective]] and self-critical), Numerate.
- Analytical: Pragmatic (Not wedded to any idea or agenda), [https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn27015-dragonfly-eyes-see-the-world-in-ultra-multicolour/ Dragonfly-Eyed] (Value diverse views and synthesize them into your own), Probabilistic, Thoughtful Updaters (When facts change, they change their minds), Intuitive Psychologist (Aware of the value of checking thinking for cognitive and emotional biases).
- Work Ethic: [[Growth mindset|Growth Mindset]], [[Grit (personality trait)|Grit]] (Determined to keep at it however long it takes)
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[[File:Mind of a superforecaster.png|thumbnail|center|500px|The mind of a superforecaster<ref>[https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2021/06/05/The-Superforecasters.html The Superforecasters]</ref>]]
{{Clear}}
=== Mindset of superforecasters ===
*[https://www.richardhughesjones.com/superforecasting-summary/ Superforecasting: The Art & Science of Prediction – Summary]
*[https://web.archive.org/web/20180719205012/https://research-doc.credit-suisse.com/docView?language=ENG&format=PDF&source_id=em&document_id=1053681521&serialid=gRAGx5o9KjpeAGBLPq7bpyJRa6r6fj06KjHB6PGBbGU%3D Sharpening Your Forecasting Skills], Credit Suisse's overview of the Good Judgement Project's research and the work of Philip E. Tetlock
*[https://fs.blog/ten-commandments-for-superforecasters/ Ten Commandments for Aspiring Superforecasters]
*[https://goodjudgment.com/superforecasters-toolbox-beliefs/ Superforecasters’ Toolbox: Beliefs as Hypotheses], Good Judgement Project website
== Weather forecasting ==
== Weather forecasting ==