Changes

The rate of warming predicted by AGW is far higher than what has been observed so far. Based on an average of 102 climate models, the UN's Intergovernment Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that the lower troposphere should be warming at a rate of 3.1 degrees per century.<ref name="SpencerCSP2">"[https://www.newcriterion.com//cm/images/THE%20CLIMATE%20SURPRISE%20PAMPHLET.pdf The Climate Surprise Pamphlet]", ''The New Criterion'', 2016. Taken from chart "All 3 Global Temperature Dataset Types Disagree with the Climate Model During the Period of Greatest Greenhouse Concentration."</ref> Satellite data shows that the lower troposphere warmed at a rate of 1.4 degrees per century between 1978 and 2021.<ref name="SpencerCSP">"[https://www.newcriterion.com//cm/images/THE%20CLIMATE%20SURPRISE%20PAMPHLET.pdf The Climate Surprise Pamphlet]", ''The New Criterion'', 2016.</ref><ref name=SpencerUAH>Spencer, Roy, "[https://www.drroyspencer.com/2021/ Archive for 2021]", 2019. This is data from the University of Alabama in Huntsville.</ref> Weather balloon data shows a warming trend of 1.6 degrees per century between 1958 and 2018.<ref>"[https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ratpac/ratpac-a/ RATPAC-A-annual-levels.txt.zip]", NOAA, National Centers for Environmental Information. Based on data for 850-300 mb.</ref>

The rate of warming predicted by AGW is far higher than what has been observed so far. Based on an average of 102 climate models, the UN's Intergovernment Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that the lower troposphere should be warming at a rate of 3.1 degrees per century.<ref name="SpencerCSP2">"[https://www.newcriterion.com//cm/images/THE%20CLIMATE%20SURPRISE%20PAMPHLET.pdf The Climate Surprise Pamphlet]", ''The New Criterion'', 2016. Taken from chart "All 3 Global Temperature Dataset Types Disagree with the Climate Model During the Period of Greatest Greenhouse Concentration."</ref> Satellite data shows that the lower troposphere warmed at a rate of 1.4 degrees per century between 1978 and 2021.<ref name="SpencerCSP">"[https://www.newcriterion.com//cm/images/THE%20CLIMATE%20SURPRISE%20PAMPHLET.pdf The Climate Surprise Pamphlet]", ''The New Criterion'', 2016.</ref><ref name=SpencerUAH>Spencer, Roy, "[https://www.drroyspencer.com/2021/ Archive for 2021]", 2019. This is data from the University of Alabama in Huntsville.</ref> Weather balloon data shows a warming trend of 1.6 degrees per century between 1958 and 2018.<ref>"[https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ratpac/ratpac-a/ RATPAC-A-annual-levels.txt.zip]", NOAA, National Centers for Environmental Information. Based on data for 850-300 mb.</ref>

An analysis of weather station data by U.S. climate researcher [[Roy Spencer]] shows no significant warming since 1943. Unlike the official weather station record, Spencer's data includes only those stations that recorded temperature at a consistent time of day.<ref name="Spencer" /> The heating predicted by AGW but not detected in the temperature record is sometimes said to be accumulating in the oceans. But a study by the Scripps Institution of Oceanography found that ocean temperature has risen by only 0.1 degree Celsius in the last fifty years.<ref>"[https://dailycaller.com/2018/01/05/new-study-shows-past-research-on-rising-ocean-temps-built-on-faulty-science/ New Study Shows Past Research On Rising Ocean Temps Built On Faulty Science]," ''The Daily Caller'', 01/05/2018.</ref>[[File:Global temp chart.jpg|thumb|right|Graph showing temperature connections between solar activity and volcanic eruptions, against a backdrop of historical events.]]

An analysis of weather station data by U.S. climate researcher [[Roy Spencer]] shows no significant warming since 1943. Unlike the official weather station record, Spencer's data includes only those stations that recorded temperature at a consistent time of day.<ref name="Spencer" /> The heating predicted by AGW but not detected in the temperature record is sometimes said to be accumulating in the oceans. But a study by the Scripps Institution of Oceanography found that ocean temperature has risen by only 0.1 degree Celsius in the last fifty years.<ref>"[https://dailycaller.com/2018/01/05/new-study-shows-past-research-on-rising-ocean-temps-built-on-faulty-science/ New Study Shows Past Research On Rising Ocean Temps Built On Faulty Science]," ''The Daily Caller'', 01/05/2018.</ref>[[File:May, Andy, Climate history.png|thumb|right|The last 4,000 years of climate history, but Andy May. Based on ice core date from Greenland.]]

The theory that "greenhouse gases" have a greater warming effect than other gases goes back to the 19th century. The idea that carbon dioxide emissions might lead to catastrophic warming was introduced by Carl Sagan in the 1960s. He was inspired by research on the atmosphere of Venus. Around 1978, the environmental movement decided to promote Sagan's theory. The movement was already advocating energy conservation and renewables as a response to the "energy crisis." That is to say, a desired political outcome was agreed upon and then a "scientific" justification was developed.

The theory that "greenhouse gases" have a greater warming effect than other gases goes back to the 19th century. The idea that carbon dioxide emissions might lead to catastrophic warming was introduced by Carl Sagan in the 1960s. He was inspired by research on the atmosphere of Venus. Around 1978, the environmental movement decided to promote Sagan's theory. The movement was already advocating energy conservation and renewables as a response to the "energy crisis." That is to say, a desired political outcome was agreed upon and then a "scientific" justification was developed.