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→Russia's demographic decline
While the death rate is growing at the same time, the natural population decline continues to accelerate: 264,300 people per quarter, or 7.3 people per 100,000 of the population – new all-time lows for the entire modern history of the country.<ref name="IntelliNews">[https://intellinews.com/russian-fertility-rates-fall-to-record-lows-on-the-back-of-a-deteriorating-economy-and-sanctions-pressure-243191/ Russian fertility rates fall to record lows on the back of a deteriorating economy and sanctions pressure], bne IntelliNews, 2022</ref>}}
While the death rate is growing at the same time, the natural population decline continues to accelerate: 264,300 people per quarter, or 7.3 people per 100,000 of the population – new all-time lows for the entire modern history of the country.<ref name="IntelliNews">[https://intellinews.com/russian-fertility-rates-fall-to-record-lows-on-the-back-of-a-deteriorating-economy-and-sanctions-pressure-243191/ Russian fertility rates fall to record lows on the back of a deteriorating economy and sanctions pressure], bne IntelliNews, 2022</ref>}}
According to the Russian demographer Salavat Abylkalikov the war in Ukraine makes Russia's demographic crisis worse.<ref>[https://en.thebell.io/is-russia-dying-out-our-interview-with-a-demographer/ Is Russia dying out? Our interview with a demographer], The Bell website, July 2023</ref>
Salavat Abylkalikov indicates:
{{Cquote|In 2022, Russia's population growth rate was -0.38%. Assuming this rate persists, the population will halve in 184 years (according to Rosstat figures, Russia currently has 146.4 million inhabitants — The Bell). According to the UN's latest projection, Russia's population will be 112.2 million by 2100 under average circumstances.
The Covid-19 pandemic caused life expectancy in Russia to fall by 3.3 years. It quickly began to recover in 2022, rising by 2.7 years. However, the war has disrupted this progress, and life expectancy is now impacted by war-related deaths and stress-induced substance abuse. Lower incomes and worsening access to medication, diagnostics, equipment and treatment are further reducing life expectancy.
The war may also cause a decrease in inward migration, which has previously helped offset Russia's natural population decline. From 1992-2019, the natural loss was 13.8 million people, but inward migration compensated with 9.6 million. Russia could now find itself in a situation where natural and migratory losses reinforce one another...
Shifts in the age structure of the population pose a substantial demographic risk for Russia's economy. The generations born in the 1990s and 2000s, when Russia's birth rate was at its lowest, are now entering the labor market. This will exacerbate the existing crisis due to a lack of young workers. Meanwhile, the post-war generations of the 1950s and 60s are aging and approaching retirement.<ref>[https://en.thebell.io/is-russia-dying-out-our-interview-with-a-demographer/ Is Russia dying out? Our interview with a demographer], The Bell website, July 2023</ref>}}
[[File:Putin I'm not bluffing.PNG|thumbnail|200px|right|Russian demography has long been an existential issue to [[Essay: Vladimir Putin is a corrupt kleptocrat and an authoritarian|Vladimir Putin]]. In 2021, he declared “saving the people of Russia is our top national priority".<ref>[https://fortune.com/2022/10/18/russia-population-historic-decline-emigration-war-plunging-birth-rate-form-perfect-storm/ Russia’s population is in a historic decline as emigration, war and a plunging birth rate form a ‘perfect storm’], Fortune magazine, 2022</ref> ]]
'''The main consequences of Russia's demographic crisis according to the Russian demographer Salavat Abylkalikov'''
The Russian demographer Salavat Abylkalikov says the main consequences of Russia's demographic crisis will be the following:
{{Cquote|According to the average version of the [[UN]] forecast, Russia's population by 2050 may be about 133.4 million people, which is 14th in the world and below countries such as Egypt, the Philippines, and Mexico. But if Russia goes not according to the average, but according to the low option that is quite likely at the present time, then with a population of 123.2 million people we will drop to 16th place and will already be neighbors with Tanzania and Vietnam. Thus, the price of switching to the low scenario could be -10 million people, as well as a decrease in the place in the top countries in terms of population. Moreover, the low version of the UN forecast did not include too low or even negative migration growth.
A smaller population means a country's lower economic potential, a shrinking domestic market, worsening demographic problems and an aging population, as well as a decrease in the country's geopolitical power. The population size still correlates with the weight in international relations, the ability to promote their interests on the world stage. And the declining population for the largest country in the world may cause some neighbors on the continent, especially the eastern ones, to be tempted to solve their internal growing problems by some external adventures. But will Russia find anyone and how to fight back, will there be allies?<ref>[https://thebell.io/do-kontsa-veka-nas-khvatit-demograf-salavat-abylkalikov--o-tom-vymiraet-li-rossiya-i-chto-s-etim-delat?ref=en.thebell.io "Until the end of the century, we will be enough." Demographer Salavat Abylkalikov - about whether Russia is dying and what to do about it], Russian demographer Salavat Abylkalikov</ref>}}
[[Category: Russia]]
[[Category:Demography]]
[[Category:Demography]]