Changes

On March 25, 2024, the Bank of Finland Institute For Emerging Economies indicated with a note of caution regarding their forecast due to Russia publishing less publically available economic data during the war in Ukraine: "Russian economic growth will decelerate this year. High growth of the second half of 2023 is still sufficient to boost on-year growth this year to around 2 %, even if quarterly growth were to cease altogether in 2024. In the absence of a surprising event, the Russian economy in 2025 and 2026 should grow at around 1 % a year, close to its long-term potential growth rate."<ref>[BOFIT Forecast for Russia 2024–2026], Bank of Finland Institute For Emerging Economies, 25 March 2024</ref>

On March 25, 2024, the Bank of Finland Institute For Emerging Economies indicated with a note of caution regarding their forecast due to Russia publishing less publically available economic data during the war in Ukraine: "Russian economic growth will decelerate this year. High growth of the second half of 2023 is still sufficient to boost on-year growth this year to around 2 %, even if quarterly growth were to cease altogether in 2024. In the absence of a surprising event, the Russian economy in 2025 and 2026 should grow at around 1 % a year, close to its long-term potential growth rate."<ref>[BOFIT Forecast for Russia 2024–2026], Bank of Finland Institute For Emerging Economies, 25 March 2024</ref>

There are other notable factors mentioned above which could make the above long-term forecast worse such as China's financial difficulties causing it to buy less Russian oil in the future and Russia being less able to produce oil post 2035 (See: ).  

There are other notable factors mentioned above which could make the above long-term forecast worse such as China's financial difficulties causing it to buy less Russian oil in the future and Russia being less able to produce oil post 2035 (See: [[Essay: Russia's economy and gas and oil profits will be BADLY damaged when China's economy declines]] and ).  

Prior to the war in Ukraine, Russia practiced fiscal discipline and built up a reserve in order to make it more resilient to Western sanctions.<ref>[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=75GP_tKHZWA Is Russia's economy under pressure?], Roundtable video, March 5, 2024</ref> However, the war is causing labor shortages, some inflation, and war time economies hurt a country's longer-term economic prospects because the money spent on the military is not spent on education, research and development, other factors which help labor productivity and other items which help long term economic growth.<ref>[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=75GP_tKHZWA Is Russia's economy under pressure?], Roundtable video, March 5, 2024</ref><ref>[https://theins.ru/en/opinion/igor-lipsitz/267664 The “no human” factor: How Russia’s workforce shortage rolls back its economic development]</ref>

Prior to the war in Ukraine, Russia practiced fiscal discipline and built up a reserve in order to make it more resilient to Western sanctions.<ref>[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=75GP_tKHZWA Is Russia's economy under pressure?], Roundtable video, March 5, 2024</ref> However, the war is causing labor shortages, some inflation, and war time economies hurt a country's longer-term economic prospects because the money spent on the military is not spent on education, research and development, other factors which help labor productivity and other items which help long term economic growth.<ref>[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=75GP_tKHZWA Is Russia's economy under pressure?], Roundtable video, March 5, 2024</ref><ref>[https://theins.ru/en/opinion/igor-lipsitz/267664 The “no human” factor: How Russia’s workforce shortage rolls back its economic development]</ref>