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| | '''Electoral College simulations''' is the forecasting methodology used by ''[[FiveThirtyEight]]'' and ''[[The Hill]]'' for predicting the outcome of an upcoming election, such as the [[2024 presidential election]]. | | '''Electoral College simulations''' is the forecasting methodology used by ''[[FiveThirtyEight]]'' and ''[[The Hill]]'' for predicting the outcome of an upcoming election, such as the [[2024 presidential election]]. |
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| | + | == FiveThirtyEight == |
| | As of June 15, 2024, ''FiveThirtyEight'' said that: | | As of June 15, 2024, ''FiveThirtyEight'' said that: |
| | {{cquote|Trump wins 51 times out of 100 in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election. | | {{cquote|Trump wins 51 times out of 100 in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election. |
| | Biden wins 49 times out of 100. | | Biden wins 49 times out of 100. |
| | <br>There is a less than 1-in-100 chance of no [[Electoral College]] winner.<ref>https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/</ref>}} | | <br>There is a less than 1-in-100 chance of no [[Electoral College]] winner.<ref>https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/</ref>}} |
| − | Interestingly, FiveThirtyEight predicts a Trump victory even though it shows him unlikely to prevail in [[Wisconsin]], [[Michigan]], or [[Pennsylvania]]. But while [[Biden]] leads in each state, it is unlikely that Biden will win all three [[swing state]]s as he needs to prevail. | + | Interestingly, ''FiveThirtyEight'' predicts a Trump victory even though it shows him unlikely to prevail in [[Wisconsin]], [[Michigan]], or [[Pennsylvania]]. But while [[Biden]] leads in each state, it is unlikely that Biden will win all three [[swing state]]s as he needs to prevail. |
| | + | |
| | + | == The Hill == |
| | + | ''The Hill'' runs its own Electoral College predictive simulations: |
| | + | {{cquote|These graphs represent the distribution of outcomes from 14,000,605 simulations of the Electoral College vote for Joe Biden and Donald Trump.<ref>https://elections2024.thehill.com/forecast/2024/president/</ref>}} |
| | + | ''The Hill'' gives Trump a 56% chance of winning the presidency, as of June 15, 2024, and predicts an Electoral College result of 279 votes for Trump and only 259 for Biden. |
| | == References == | | == References == |
| | {{reflist}} | | {{reflist}} |
| | [[category:elections]] | | [[category:elections]] |
| | [[category:politics]] | | [[category:politics]] |