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Line 31: − − Sooner or later, 20 years of wrongheaded thinking about international politics by you will go down the drain! [[User:Conservative|Conservative]] ([[User talk:Conservative|talk]]) 13:34, November 13, 2025 (EST) − + + +
Talk:Open letter to Andy Schlafly (view source)
Revision as of 13:41, November 15, 2025
, 13:41, November 15, 2025no edit summary
:Ukraine didn't do it. Your [[taxpayer|taxdollars]] did. {{unsigned|RobSmith}}
:Ukraine didn't do it. Your [[taxpayer|taxdollars]] did. {{unsigned|RobSmith}}
"Russia faces a 40% chance of a major economic downturn (recession) within 18 months: 30% for a mild recession starting Q4 2025–Q2 2026, and 10% for a severe collapse by mid-2026, driven by high interest rates, sanctions, and oil price risks; 60% likelihood of stagnation with near-zero growth but no deep crisis."[https://grok.com/share/c2hhcmQtNA%3D%3D_488d7af4-f1f4-4e3d-979a-7f78280a25d1]
"Russia faces a 40% chance of a major economic downturn (recession) within 18 months: 30% for a mild recession starting Q4 2025–Q2 2026, and 10% for a severe collapse by mid-2026, driven by high interest rates, sanctions, and oil price risks; 60% likelihood of stagnation with near-zero growth but no deep crisis."[https://grok.com/share/c2hhcmQtNA%3D%3D_488d7af4-f1f4-4e3d-979a-7f78280a25d1]
:[Grok: Within what time will the US see a major economic downturn. Give me scenarios and probabilities].
:[Grok: Within what time will the US see a major economic downturn. Give me scenarios and probabilities].
:"Probabilistic forecasts from models and surveys (e.g., New York Fed's yield curve model, economist panels) suggest a '''25-40% chance of a recession starting within the next 12 months (by November 2026), rising to 40-50% within 24 months''' (by November 2027). These are consensus estimates; outliers like UBS's 93% credit-stress scenario appear tied to niche metrics and are not widely echoed. Betting markets (e.g., Polymarket) align closer to 30-38% for 2025-2026.
:"Probabilistic forecasts from models and surveys (e.g., New York Fed's yield curve model, economist panels) suggest a '''25-40% chance of a recession starting within the next 12 months (by November 2026), rising to 40-50% within 24 months''' (by November 2027). These are consensus estimates; outliers like UBS's 93% credit-stress scenario appear tied to niche metrics and are not widely echoed. Betting markets (e.g., Polymarket) align closer to 30-38% for 2025-2026.
:More caca from [[User:Conservative]] & [[AI]].
:More caca from [[User:Conservative]] & [[AI]]. {{unsigned|TobSmith}}
Sooner or later, 20 years of wrongheaded thinking about international politics by you will go down the drain! [[User:Conservative|Conservative]] ([[User talk:Conservative|talk]]) 13:34, November 13, 2025 (EST)
:Again, as has been explained dozens of times, your wrongheaded thinking about my [[foreign policy]] views is incorrect. My epiphany on a [[American [[warmongering]] came during the [[Libyan war]] - when your [[warmongering]] [[anti-Trump]] heroes [[Hillary Clinton]] and [[John Brennan]] used the supposed "defensive" organization [[NATO]] to attack [[Africa]].
[[File:Anti-hitler.png|thumb|center|450px|This user does NOT support [[Hitler]] or any other Nazi scum or [[nazisymp]] past, present, or future, to include [[Volodymyr Zelensky]] and supporters of [[Ethnic cleansing in the Donbas]].]]
[[File:Anti-hitler.png|thumb|center|450px|This user does NOT support [[Hitler]] or any other Nazi scum or [[nazisymp]] past, present, or future, to include [[Volodymyr Zelensky]] and supporters of [[Ethnic cleansing in the Donbas]].]]