Changes

:[Grok: Within what time will the US see a major economic downturn. Give me scenarios and probabilities].

:[Grok: Within what time will the US see a major economic downturn. Give me scenarios and probabilities].

:"Probabilistic forecasts from models and surveys (e.g., New York Fed's yield curve model, economist panels) suggest a '''25-40% chance of a recession starting within the next 12 months (by November 2026), rising to 40-50% within 24 months''' (by November 2027). These are consensus estimates; outliers like UBS's 93% credit-stress scenario appear tied to niche metrics and are not widely echoed. Betting markets (e.g., Polymarket) align closer to 30-38% for 2025-2026.

:"Probabilistic forecasts from models and surveys (e.g., New York Fed's yield curve model, economist panels) suggest a '''25-40% chance of a recession starting within the next 12 months (by November 2026), rising to 40-50% within 24 months''' (by November 2027). These are consensus estimates; outliers like UBS's 93% credit-stress scenario appear tied to niche metrics and are not widely echoed. Betting markets (e.g., Polymarket) align closer to 30-38% for 2025-2026.

:More caca from [[User:Conservative]] & [[AI]]. {{unsigned|TobSmith}}

:More caca from [[User:Conservative]] & [[AI]]. {{unsigned|RobSmith}}

Sooner or later, 20 years of wrongheaded thinking about international politics by you will go down the drain! [[User:Conservative|Conservative]] ([[User talk:Conservative|talk]]) 13:34, November 13, 2025 (EST)

Sooner or later, 20 years of wrongheaded thinking about international politics by you will go down the drain! [[User:Conservative|Conservative]] ([[User talk:Conservative|talk]]) 13:34, November 13, 2025 (EST)

:Again, as has been explained dozens of times, your wrongheaded thinking about my [[foreign policy]] views is incorrect. My epiphany on a [[American]] [[warmongering]] came during the [[Libyan war]] - when your [[warmongering]] [[anti-Trump]] heroes [[Hillary Clinton]] and [[John Brennan]] used the supposed "defensive" organization [[NATO]] to attack [[Africa]].

:Again, as has been explained dozens of times, your wrongheaded thinking about my [[foreign policy]] views is incorrect. My epiphany on a [[American]] [[warmongering]] came during the [[Libyan war]] - when your [[warmongering]] [[anti-Trump]] heroes [[Hillary Clinton]] and [[John Brennan]] used the supposed "defensive" organization [[NATO]] to attack [[Africa]].

[[File:Anti-hitler.png|thumb|center|450px|This user does NOT support [[Hitler]] or any other Nazi scum or [[nazisymp]] past, present, or future, to include [[Volodymyr Zelensky]] and supporters of [[Ethnic cleansing in the Donbas]].]]

[[File:Anti-hitler.png|thumb|center|450px|This user does NOT support [[Hitler]] or any other Nazi scum or [[nazisymp]] past, present, or future, to include [[Volodymyr Zelensky]] and supporters of [[Ethnic cleansing in the Donbas]].]]