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[[File:Latin America (orthographic projection).svg|thumbnail|200px|right|Many [[Latin America]]n middle-income countries haven't become high-income countries and have half the [[labor productivity]] of countries that are technological leaders.<ref>[https://www.brookings.edu/articles/is-economic-growth-in-middle-income-countries-different-from-low-income-countries/ Is economic growth in middle-income countries different from low-income countries?] by Barry Eichengreen, Donghyun Park, and Kwanho Shin, [[Brookings Institute]], September 25, 2017</ref><ref>[https://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/research-files/repec/cam/pdf/cwpe2267.pdf Is Southeast Asia falling into a Latin American style “middle-income trap”?], Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, CWPE 2267. Published 9 November 2022. Website www.econ.cam.ac.uk/cwpe</ref>]]
[[Middle-income countries]] is the term which the [[World Bank]] defines as: "economies with a gross national income (GNI) per capita between $1,136 and $13,845 as of 2024. MICs consist of lower-middle-income countries and upper-middle-income countries, both of which are part of the income categories that the World Bank uses to classify economies for operational and analytical purposes,"<ref>[https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/middle-income-countries.asp Middle-Income Countries (MICs): Characteristics and Significance], Investopedia</ref> as measured in [[US]] [[Petrodollar]]s.
The '''middle-income trap''' refers to an economic theory where middle-income countries are failing to transform themselves into high-income economies due to its rising costs and declining competitiveness (Historically few countries successfully manage the transition from low to middle to high income).<ref>[https://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/10.1596/9780821387856_CH04#:~:text=The%20middle%2Dincome%20trap%20refers,to%20middle%20to%20high%20income. Middle-Income Trap]</ref><ref>[https://asiasociety.org/new-york/china-may-be-running-out-time-escape-middle-income-trap China May Be Running Out of Time To Escape the Middle-Income Trap], Asia Society, 2017</ref><ref>[https://www.adb.org/publications/tracking-middle-income-trap-what-it-who-it-and-why-part-1 Tracking the Middle-Income Trap: What is It, Who is in It, and Why? (Part 1)], Asia Development Bank, 2012</ref><ref>[https://www.adb.org/publications/tracking-middle-income-trap-what-it-who-it-and-why-part-2 Tracking the Middle-Income Trap: What is It, Who is in It, and Why? (Part 2)], Asia Development Bank, 2012</ref>
The Asia Society describes the middle-income trap thusly: "The “middle-income trap” is a theory of economic development in which wages in a country rise to the point that growth potential in export-driven low-skill manufacturing is exhausted before it attains the [[Innovation|innovative]] capability needed to boost [[productivity]] and compete with developed countries in higher value-chain industries. Thus, there are few avenues for further growth — and wages stagnate."<ref>[https://asiasociety.org/new-york/china-may-be-running-out-time-escape-middle-income-trap China May Be Running Out of Time To Escape the Middle-Income Trap], Asia Society, 2017</ref>
The 2023 [[Mint News]] article ''There is no easy escape from the middle-income trap'' indicates: "Graduating from middle income to developed world status is the greatest prize in development economics. Only a handful of [[East Asia]]n and [[Central Europe]]an countries have made the transition so far, along with a few fortunate resource-rich countries."<ref>[https://archive.ph/MrPyA#selection-1799.0-1799.51 ''There is no easy escape from the middle-income trap''], Mint News, 2023</ref>
Slowing growth in emerging markets during the [[Financial Crisis of 2008|post-2007/2008 financial crisis]] period provided a new impetus to the “middle-income trap” debate.<ref>[https://www.brookings.edu/articles/is-economic-growth-in-middle-income-countries-different-from-low-income-countries/ Is economic growth in middle-income countries different from low-income countries?] by Barry Eichengreen, Donghyun Park, and Kwanho Shin, [[Brookings Institute]], September 25, 2017</ref>
A 2017 [[Brookings Institute]] article notes: "A number of structural factors, such as the shift from input-led growth to productivity- and innovation-led growth, make the middle-to-high transition more challenging. The idea of a middle-income trap resonates especially in [[Latin America]], where many countries have been trapped at middle income for a long time."<ref>[https://www.brookings.edu/articles/is-economic-growth-in-middle-income-countries-different-from-low-income-countries/ Is economic growth in middle-income countries different from low-income countries?] by Barry Eichengreen, Donghyun Park, and Kwanho Shin, [[Brookings Institute]], September 25, 2017</ref>
== Asian Development Bank: The middle-income countries transition to high-income counties around the globe: Characteristics of graduation and slowdown ==
The Asian Development Bank is a regional development bank established in 1966 with 31 offices in the world designed to promote social and economic development in Asia. The Bank is headquartered in Manilla, [[Philippines]].
The abstract for the Asian Development Bank 2015 paper entitled ''The Middle-Income Transition around the Globe: Characteristics of Graduation and Slowdown'' indicates:
{{Cquote|The paper investigates the situation of middle-income economies around the world. Since 1965, only 18 economies with a population of more than 3 million and not dependent on oil exports have made the transition to being high-income. Many more have not been able to move beyond the middle-income stage. We conduct statistical tests of differences between two groups of economies across a range of growth and development variables. The results suggest that middle-income economies are particularly weak in the following areas: governance, infrastructure, savings and investment, inequality, and quality—but not quantity—of education. The findings are used to suggest whether the People’s Republic of China is successfully progressing through the middle-income stage or whether it may get caught in a middle-income trap.<ref>[https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/159840/adbi-wp519.pdf ''The Middle-Income Transition around the Globe: Characteristics of Graduation and Slowdown''] by Paul Vandenberg, Lilibeth Poot, and Jeffrey Miyamoto. Asian Development Bank. ADBI Working Paper Series. No. 519. March 2015</ref>}}
== Criticisms of the middle-income trap theory ==
*[https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S030438782100064X The new era of unconditional convergence], ''Journal of Development Economics'', Volume 152, September 2021, 102687
*[https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/224601/adbi-wp646.pdf Transitioning From Low-income Growth To High-income Growth: Is There a Middle Income Trap, Asia Development Bank], Asia Development Bank, 2017
== Material related to whether or not China escapes the middle-income trap ==
[[File:Flag of the PRC.png|thumbnail|right|205px|Flag of [[China]]]]
''See also:'' [[China]]
=== China may escape the middle-income trap ===
*[https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3319278/china-could-become-high-income-country-year-can-it-stay-one China could become a high-income country this year, but can it stay one?], South China Morning Post, 2025
*[https://archive.ph/cnAyi#selection-893.13-893.107 Is China rich or poor? The question will dog Beijing for years in war of words with Washington], South China Morning Post, 2025
*[https://english.ckgsb.edu.cn/knowledge/article/aiming-for-the-top-can-china-escape-the-middle-income-trap/ Aiming for the Top: Can China Escape the Middle Income Trap?], 2019
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BVzPV8uDE8s How China Plans To Avoid The Middle Income Trap], 2023 video
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JOLceWgfbJ4 Can China Escape the Middle Income Trap?], Dr. Nicholas R. Lardy, Anthony M. Solomon Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, video
=== Arguments that China will not escape the middle-income trap ===
*[https://archive.ph/AcvtG China Confronts the Middle-Income Trap] by Nouriel Roubini (economist), Project Syndicate, 2024
*[https://archive.ph/GAI7O#selection-847.0-847.86 ''China has yet to join the ‘rich country’ club. Has the middle-income trap been sprung?''], ''South China Morning Post'', 2024
*[https://www.nippon.com/en/in-depth/d00922/ With “Xinomics” Caught in a Trap, China Will Not Join the Ranks of Advanced Economies], September 2023, Nippon.com
== India and the middle-income trap ==
*[https://www.thenationalnews.com/opinion/comment/2024/03/21/india-wants-to-become-a-developed-country-can-it-break-out-of-the-middle-income-trap/ India wants to become a 'developed' country - can it break out of the middle-income trap?], 2024
== Philippines is projected to move from a lower middle-income country to an upper middle-income country. Philippines and the middle-income trap ==
''See also:'' [[Middle-income countries]]
[[File:Flag of the Philippines.png|thumb|right|250px|Flag of the [[Philippines]] ]]
According to BusinessWorld Online: "The World Bank currently classifies the Philippines as a lower middle-income country with a GNI per capita of $3,950. The Philippines has been classified as a lower middle-income country since 1987, which is the earliest available data from the World Bank."<ref>[https://www.bworldonline.com/top-stories/2023/11/27/559816/philippines-could-reach-upper-middle-income-status-by-2025-or-2026/#:~:text=The%20World%20Bank%20currently%20classifies,data%20from%20the%20World%20Bank. Philippines could reach upper middle-income status by 2025 or 2026], BusinessWorld Online, 2023</ref>
At the present time, the Philippines has high [[GNP]] growth and it is projected to become an upper [[Middle-income countries|middle-income country]] by 2025/2026.<ref>[https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/philippines-may-achieve-upper-middle-income-status-by-2026-11815881.html Philippines likely to be upper middle-income country by 2026], Money Control website, November 2023</ref><ref>[https://www.bworldonline.com/top-stories/2023/11/27/559816/philippines-could-reach-upper-middle-income-status-by-2025-or-2026/#:~:text=The%20World%20Bank%20currently%20classifies,data%20from%20the%20World%20Bank. Philippines could reach upper middle-income status by 2025 or 2026], BusinessWorld Online, 2023</ref>
'''Articles on the Philippines and the middle-income trap:'''
*[https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2023/07/24/535512/philippines-47-years-in-lower-middle-income-country-limbo/ Philippines: 47 years in lower middle-income country limbo], BusinessWorld, 2023
*[https://www.philstar.com/news-commentary/2022/10/05/2214460/philippines-and-middle-income-trap The Philippines and the middle-income trap], PhilStar Global, 2022
== Former high-income countries that are now middle-income countries ==
Former high-income countries and the year(s) during which they held such classification is/are shown in parentheses.<ref>"[http://databank.worldbank.org/data/download/site-content/Trac.xls comparison with the previous fiscal year]". World Bank. Retrieved 2018-04-22.</ref>
*[[Argentina]] (2014, 2017)
*[[Equatorial Guinea]] (2007–14)
*[[Mauritius]] (2019)
*[[Mayotte]] (1990)
*Netherlands Antilles (1994–2009)
*[[Palau]] (2016–20)
*[[Venezuela]] (2014)
== Journal articles and other scholarship ==
*[https://www.hoover.org/sites/default/files/research/docs/middleincometrap.pdf The Political Economy of the Middle Income Trap], Hoover Institution, 2024
*[https://jps.scholasticahq.com/article/73083-how-to-escape-the-middle-income-trap-lessons-for-the-oda-policy Kim, B. (2023). How to Escape the Middle-Income Trap: Lessons for the ODA Policy]. ''Journal of Policy Studies'', 38(1), 45–58. https://doi.org/10.52372/jps38104
*[https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/23311886.2023.2286035 ''Escaping the middle-income trap: A study on a developing economy''], ''Cogent Social Sciences'', Volume 9, 2023 - Issue 2
*[https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12116-023-09385-0#:~:text=Scholars%20often%20portray%20Mexico%20as%20caught%20in%20a%20%E2%80%9Cmiddle%2Dincome,Gallagher%202011%3B%20Levy%202018). Can Partial Growth Coalitions Build Pathways Out of the Middle-Income Trap? The Case of Querétaro, México], ''Studies in Comparative International Development''. 10 February 2023. DOI:10.1007/s12116-023-09385-0Corpus ID: 256772652
*[https://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/research-files/repec/cam/pdf/cwpe2267.pdf Is Southeast Asia falling into a Latin American style “middle-income trap”?], Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, CWPE 2267. Published 9 November 2022. Website www.econ.cam.ac.uk/cwpe
*[https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S030438782100064X The new era of unconditional convergence], ''Journal of Development Economics'', Volume 152, September 2021, 102687
*[https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/world-politics/article/abs/middleincome-trap/68926E62CA9AE38B9D48FDA3E572AC62 The Middle-Income Trap. More Politics than Economics], Cambridge University Press: 30 August 2016
*[https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/joes.12175 CAUGHT IN THE MIDDLE? THE ECONOMICS OF MIDDLE-INCOME TRAPS], ''Journal of Economic Surveys'', 22 August 2016. https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12175
*[https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2049330 ''Tracking the Middle-Income Trap: What is it, Who is in it, and Why?''], Levy Economics Institute, Working Paper No. 715, May 2, 2012
== External links ==
*[https://odi.org/en/insights/how-to-avoid-the-middle-income-trap/ How to avoid the 'middle-income trap'], ODI Global Advisory
*[https://archive.ph/hYDGe#selection-1115.1-1115.14 Which countries have escaped the middle-income trap?], ''The Economist'', March 30, 2023
*[https://archive.ph/MrPyA#selection-1797.0-1797.51 There is no easy escape from the middle-income trap], Mint News, 2023
*[https://www.brookings.edu/articles/is-economic-growth-in-middle-income-countries-different-from-low-income-countries/ Is economic growth in middle-income countries different from low-income countries?] by Barry Eichengreen, Donghyun Park, and Kwanho Shin, [[Brookings Institute]], September 25, 2017
*[https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w23126/w23126.pdf Re-examing the Middle Income Trap Hypothesis (MITH): What to Reject and What to Revive], National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper by Xuehui Han and Shang-Jin Wei, Working Paper 23126, 2017<ref>[https://www.nber.org/papers/w23126 Re-examining the Middle-Income Trap Hypothesis (MITH): What to Reject and What to Revive?], Xuehui Han and Shang-Jin Wei, WORKING PAPER 23126
DOI 10.3386/w23126, ISSUE DATE February 2017</ref>
Videos:
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nkv69h-MhBY Middle Income Trap- Explained in 2 Minutes]
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kCVFD_GNmG8 What is Middle Income Trap: Who Are The Middle Income Countries]
== References ==
<references/>
[[Category: Essay]]