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Major events in the Ukraine proxy war, 2026 (view source)
Revision as of 23:59, May 29, 2026
, May 29→NATO attacks from the Baltic States
A [[diplomatic]] kerfuffle blew up into a full-on [[crisis]] in Latvia, with the announced resignation of the Latvian defense minister over this dangerous violation of [[international]] norms and [[law]]. But the shocking news came a day later, when it was revealed the defense minister had not actually resigned as believed, but was in fact fired by Latvian [[prime minister]] Evika Silina: Only a day after that, the Latvian prime minister herself suddenly resigned, as the entire [[government]] essentially collapsed within a week over this very issue of unchecked Ukrainian drone incursions.
A [[diplomatic]] kerfuffle blew up into a full-on [[crisis]] in Latvia, with the announced resignation of the Latvian defense minister over this dangerous violation of [[international]] norms and [[law]]. But the shocking news came a day later, when it was revealed the defense minister had not actually resigned as believed, but was in fact fired by Latvian [[prime minister]] Evika Silina: Only a day after that, the Latvian prime minister herself suddenly resigned, as the entire [[government]] essentially collapsed within a week over this very issue of unchecked Ukrainian drone incursions.
===Ukraine expands the war: Belarus threat and southern logistics collapse===
A new area of tension emerged in northern Ukraine. It refers to the entire border region with [[Belarus]]. On May 22, 2026 Ukrainian President [[Volodymyr Zelensky]] warned of a potential attack from Belarus. ‘The threat is not just to [[Kyiv]] and Chernihiv, but also to the Volyn, Zhytomyr, and Rivne regions,’ he said in an evening address from Rivne. Zelensky even threatened a preemptive strike against Belarus. ‘If there is a threat from Belarusian or Russian border regions, Ukraine is prepared to act preemptively,’ he said.
These statements are not empty [[rhetoric]] or [[political]] [[PR]]. According to reports, the Ukrainian leadership has already begun rapidly fortifying the terrain in border areas for defensive operations. [[Madyar]], commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ Unmanned Systems Forces, said that Ukraine has identified the first 500 targets in Belarus that will be struck if [[Lukashenko]] decides to go to war on Russia’s side. Preparations are also underway to evacuate some populated areas.
Ukrainian troops are using drones to scout targets in Belarus. On May 26, 2026 Alexander Volfovich, Secretary of the country’s Security Council, reported this. ‘Every day, our air defense systems detect [[combat]] [[drone]]s crossing the border between Belarus and Ukraine. In some cases, these are not accidental attacks, but rather, attempts to strike border [[infrastructure]]. There were 116 such incidents late May 2026 alone. Forces on duty responded to them 59 times,’ Volfovich stated. He also addressed the issue of Ukrainians illegally crossing the border to flee forced mobilization. ‘Over the past month, 76 violators have been detained. Some of them are spies with specific missions.’
Overall, an armed conflict with [[Minsk]] would be advantageous for Kyiv. The Belarusian army lacks combat experience and advanced [[technology]] for producing and using unmanned systems of all types. Consequently, holding onto the territories under its control will not require diverting too many forces and resources from the main theaters of the Ukrainian conflict. At the same time, Volodymyr Zelensky will have a compelling reason to demand new [[financial]] assistance and large quantities of arms from his [[Western alliance|Western allies]].
Meanwhile, the situation for Russian forces in southern Ukraine risks deteriorating sharply. Ukrainian forces have increased the range of their guided drones significantly, in some cases extending it up to 100 km. Near Berdyansk, at roughly this distance, a rear supply convoy was destroyed. Similar strikes have increased sharply across the entire former Ukrainian territory. At the same time, the strikes have focused on supply tankers and trucks. By fall 2026, this will lead to the complete paralysis of [[logistics]] from the [[Kharkiv]] region to [[Crimea]], which will make continuing hostilities impossible.
==References==
==References==