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'''Bayesian reasoning''' is a method of [[Logical reasoning|logical analysis]] that updates beliefs in a structured, proportional way as new evidence becomes available. It is named after the 18th‑century minister and mathematician Thomas Bayes, whose work was later expanded by Pierre‑Simon Laplace. The central idea is that rational thinkers should begin with an initial estimate of how likely a claim is — a prior [[probability]] — and then revise that estimate when new information appears. This approach treats knowledge as something that improves gradually rather than through sudden, all‑or‑nothing conclusions, making it a valuable tool for scientific inquiry, [[Decision making|decision‑making]], and everyday reasoning.

'''Bayesian reasoning''' is a method of [[Logical reasoning|logical analysis]] that updates beliefs in a structured, proportional way as new evidence becomes available. It is named after the 18th‑century minister and mathematician Thomas Bayes, whose work was later expanded by Pierre‑Simon Laplace. The central idea is that rational thinkers should begin with an initial estimate of how likely a claim is — a prior [[probability]] — and then revise that estimate when new information appears. This approach treats knowledge as something that improves gradually rather than through sudden, all‑or‑nothing conclusions, making it a valuable tool for scientific inquiry, [[Decision making|decision‑making]], and everyday reasoning.