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| | ==Example== | | ==Example== |
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| − | Define the following: | + | Define the following mean estimator: |
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| | <math>\tilde \mu=\frac{\sum_{i=1}^n X_i}{n}.</math> | | <math>\tilde \mu=\frac{\sum_{i=1}^n X_i}{n}.</math> |
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| | <math>\tilde \mu \sim G(\mu, \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt n})</math> | | <math>\tilde \mu \sim G(\mu, \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt n})</math> |
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| − | Assume the standard notation (''sigma'' is the [[standard deviation]], ''n'' is the [[sample size]]). Assume we want to find the probability that the difference between the mean and its estimator is less than 100. Then: | + | Assume the standard notation (''sigma'' is the [[standard deviation]], ''n'' is the [[sample size]]). You are given that sigma/sqrt(n) is 67.5. Assume we want to find the probability that the difference between the mean and its estimator is less than 100. Then: |
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| | <math>\Pr(|\tilde \mu - \mu| < 100)=2\Pr(\tilde \mu - \mu > 100)</math> | | <math>\Pr(|\tilde \mu - \mu| < 100)=2\Pr(\tilde \mu - \mu > 100)</math> |
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| − | <math>1 - \Pr(\tilde \mu - \mu < 100)</math> | + | <math>\Pr(\tilde \mu - \mu > 100)</math><br/> |
| − | <math>1 - \Pr(\frac{\tilde \mu - \mu}{\sigma / \sqrt n} > \frac {100}{\sigma / \sqrt n})</math> | + | <math>=1 - \Pr(\tilde \mu - \mu < 100)</math><br/> |
| − | <math> | + | <math>=1 - \Pr(\frac{\tilde \mu - \mu}{\sigma / \sqrt n} > \frac {100}{\sigma / \sqrt n})</math><br/> |
| | + | <math>\approx 1 - \phi(\frac{100}{67.5})</math><br/> |
| | + | <math>= 0.069</math>, where ''Phi'' is the [[cumulative distribution function]] for the G(0,1) Gaussian distribution. |
| | + | |
| | + | <math>\Pr(|\tilde \mu - \mu| < 100)=\Pr(-100 < \tilde \mu - \mu < 100)=\Pr(\tilde \mu - 100 < \mu < \tilde \mu + 100)</math><br/> |
| | + | <math>=0.138</math> |
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| | + | Then we conclude that there is a 13.8% chance that the average is within the interval <math>(\tilde \mu - 100, \tilde \mu + 100)</math> |
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| | + | In another practice, the confidence interval is used to find the interval as opposed to the probability. In the above process, you are given the probability (say, 95%) that a parameter falls within an interval, and from there, the interval itself must be found. Then, one can conclude that 95% of times, the parameter will fall within a given interval. |