| − | '''Bayesian model selection''' is a technique in probability theory for choosing a [[hypothesis]] (model) to fit observed data. | + | In [[Bayesian Probability]], '''Bayesian model selection''' is a method for choosing the best [[hypothesis]] (model) out of a set of competing models which best explains some observed data. Best here is measured by the [[Bayesian posterior odds]] ratio of the winner compared against all other candidates in the competition. The '''posterior odds ratio''' is the product of the [[Bayes Factor]] and the [[Bayes prior]] odds ratio. |
| − | The model selection implicitly prefers simpler models, and it ensures that the right model, if it exists, will be selected as the size of the dataset increases to infinity.
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