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Mr.Schalfly, you keep suggesting that people are somehow disagreeing about the deadly risks of tobacco, but no-one is - they are incontestable, and the CEO's of tobacco companies, and their lawyers, just look utterly foolish as they make their arguments that they are not deadly.  But this thesis of yours, to be similarly incontestable, needs to be have solid reasoning behind it.  I doubt you'd disagree with that?  For example, if you are suggesting that approximately 1 in 7 is the risk factor for women between 18-45 in the 'Hollywood' industry, and you have listed 20 individuals, are you suggesting that the total population of 'Hollywood' types is really just 140 women?  I'm simply trying to get to the bottom of the maths.    [[User:StatsFan|StatsFan]] 20:55, 7 May 2008 (EDT)

Mr.Schalfly, you keep suggesting that people are somehow disagreeing about the deadly risks of tobacco, but no-one is - they are incontestable, and the CEO's of tobacco companies, and their lawyers, just look utterly foolish as they make their arguments that they are not deadly.  But this thesis of yours, to be similarly incontestable, needs to be have solid reasoning behind it.  I doubt you'd disagree with that?  For example, if you are suggesting that approximately 1 in 7 is the risk factor for women between 18-45 in the 'Hollywood' industry, and you have listed 20 individuals, are you suggesting that the total population of 'Hollywood' types is really just 140 women?  I'm simply trying to get to the bottom of the maths.    [[User:StatsFan|StatsFan]] 20:55, 7 May 2008 (EDT)

One other note - the posint you make about "watch your smoker relatives drop dead" is an example of selective sampling also.  I had two uncle's who smoked until they died in their nineties, neither of smoking-related illnesses.  It doesn't prove for a moment though that smoking does not kill - t simply shows the effects of selective bias.  [[User:StatsFan|StatsFan]] 20:59, 7 May 2008 (EDT)

One other note - the point you make about "watch your smoker relatives drop dead" is an excellent example of selective sampling.  I had two uncle's who smoked until they died in their nineties, neither of smoking-related illnesses.  It doesn't prove for a moment though that smoking does not kill - it simply shows the effects of selective bias.  [[User:StatsFan|StatsFan]] 20:59, 7 May 2008 (EDT)