Changes

Had all three of the above [[swing states]] voted Democratic in 2000, and everything else remained the same, [[Al Gore]] would have become President in 2001, so this is the result Democrats should especially aim for.  This does not necessarily mean they can let their guard down in the states that voted their way in both of the last two elections -- particularly if the Republicans nominate [[Rudy Giuliani]], [[Mitt Romney]], or another candidate associated with one of those states.

Had all three of the above [[swing states]] voted Democratic in 2000, and everything else remained the same, [[Al Gore]] would have become President in 2001, so this is the result Democrats should especially aim for.  This does not necessarily mean they can let their guard down in the states that voted their way in both of the last two elections -- particularly if the Republicans nominate [[Rudy Giuliani]], [[Mitt Romney]], or another candidate associated with one of those states.

Evaluating the race by historic analogy, the last Senator elected President and the last Northern Democrat elected President were the same person:  [[John F. Kennedy]], in the [[United States presidential election, 1960]].  If this pattern continues to hold true this cycle, the candidate best positioned this year was [[Bill Richardson]], who was cast somewhat against type as a member of the [[National Rifle Association]] and also has the distinction of being from one of the three [[swing states]] cited above.  In strong second place would probably be [[John Edwards]], but it needs to be said that the Democrat who can carry Edwards' home state of [[North Carolina]] in a Presidential election probably hasn't been born yet.  [[Lyndon B. Johnson]] was the last person to do so, just after writing off most of the South for the Democratic Party by passing the [[1964 Civil Rights Act]].  Still, the Democrats, as pointed out above, feel for the most part that this is their race to lose and may "let it all hang out" in the belief that any of their first-tier candidates will handily defeat a [[generic]] Republican candidate.

Evaluating the race by historic analogy, the last Senator elected President and the last Northern Democrat elected President were the same person:  [[John F. Kennedy]], in the [[United States presidential election, 1960]].  If this pattern continues to hold true this cycle, the candidate best positioned this year was [[Bill Richardson]], who was cast somewhat against type as a member of the [[National Rifle Association]] and also has the distinction of being from one of the three [[swing states]] cited above.  In strong second place would probably be [[John Edwards]], but it has been difficult for Democrats to carry the state of [[North Carolina]] in a Presidential election.  [[Lyndon B. Johnson]] was the last person to do so, just after writing off most of the South for the Democratic Party by passing the [[1964 Civil Rights Act]].  Still, the Democrats, as pointed out above, feel for the most part that this is their race to lose and may "let it all hang out" in the belief that any of their first-tier candidates will handily defeat a [[generic]] Republican candidate.

The ''move on masses'' of the blogosphere require that any Democratic candidate frame the election as an attack on George Bush. Since they can't run against the President, the attack will be on ''Bush Politics'', chiefly the Iraq War and the Bush tax cuts. That stance will be echoed repeatedly regardless of whatever real situation taking place in Iraq (where American forces turned over strategic control of the last province, Al Anbar) or in the economy (where the Dow hit record highs, before accounting for inflation, as recently as October 2007 and unemployment is near all time lows). The blogosphere led democrats to be overconfident in 2004, over estimating their voting support among young people who actually vote. However, with Democrats in control of both houses this election remains critical. The Republican candidate will need to force the Democrats into a vote on the current issues, highlighting experience and being in touch with the views of the average American on issues such as immigration, taxes, and National Security.

The ''move on masses'' of the blogosphere require that any Democratic candidate frame the election as an attack on George Bush. Since they can't run against the President, the attack will be on ''Bush Politics'', chiefly the Iraq War and the Bush tax cuts. That stance will be echoed repeatedly regardless of whatever real situation taking place in Iraq (where American forces turned over strategic control of the last province, Al Anbar) or in the economy (where the Dow hit record highs, before accounting for inflation, as recently as October 2007 and unemployment is near all time lows). The blogosphere led democrats to be overconfident in 2004, over estimating their voting support among young people who actually vote. However, with Democrats in control of both houses this election remains critical. The Republican candidate will need to force the Democrats into a vote on the current issues, highlighting experience and being in touch with the views of the average American on issues such as immigration, taxes, and National Security.