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Line 1: − [[Image:Presidential election map.gif|right|thumb|350px|Battleground states]] The '''2008 United States Presidential Election''' is scheduled for Tuesday, November 4, 2008.<ref>http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2008/calendar/</ref> The primary season for both the [[Republican Party]] and the [[Democratic Party]] officially began on January 3, 2008 with the [[Iowa Caucus]]es and will end on June 3, 2008.<ref>http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2008/calendar/</ref> The 2008 election cycle has seen a major shift to the primary election calendar, frontloading many primaries into early February.<ref>http://www.miamiherald.com/515/story/43160.html</ref> Senator [[John McCain]] of [[Arizona]] has won the Republican nomination, while [[Barack Obama|Senator Barack Obama]] is the nominee for the [[Democratic Party]]. + − ==First election without incumbents since 1928== − If eligible to do so, the President of the United States often runs for reelection. If the President does not run, the Vice President of the United States will often run to replace the President after he leaves office. 2008 may mark the first time since the 1928 election in which there is neither an incumbent President nor an incumbent Vice President running for his party's presidential nomination and thus not running in the Presidential election. In the [[United States presidential election of 1952]], the race was between Republican candidate Dwight D. Eisenhower and Democratic candidate Adlai Stevenson. Vice President Alben Barkley sought but failed to win the Democratic nomination. Current Vice President [[Dick Cheney]] has repeatedly stated he will not run for President. "I will say just as hard as I possibly know how to say... If nominated, I will not run; if elected, I will not serve," Cheney said on ''Fox News Sunday''. − ==Differences between 2008 and other elections== − In 2008, [[CNN]]-[[YouTube]] held the first debate in which the questions asked of the nominees in each party came primarily from YouTube viewer submitted videos. The debates received high ratings, however, CNN was criticized for not picking questions that were 'tough' or pertinent enough. One such example was during the Democratic Debate, when CNN chose to ask a question from a snow man, talking about [[global warming]]. During the Republican debate, some claimed that many of the questions were from Democratic supporters just meant to embarrass the Republican candidates. For example, a question over whether or not homosexuals should serve in the U.S. military was asked by retired general and gay activist Keith Kerr, an adviser to Hillary Clinton's campaign. − The internet has also played a major role in the election, with then-Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul and Democratic candidate Barack Obama being very active on the internet. − + − The United States has become so regionally polarized that even though the 2004 presidential election was close nationwide, only nine states had outcomes having less than 4% margin between the candidates: − State, margin of victory, party that won the state in 2004 − #Wisconsin, 0.38% (Dem)+ − #Iowa, 0.67% (Repub)+ − #New Mexico, 0.79% (Repub)+ − #New Hampshire, 1.37% (Dem)+ − #Ohio, 2.11% (Repub)+ − #Pennsylvania, 2.50% (Dem)+ − #Nevada, 2.59% (Repub)+ − #Michigan, 3.42% (Dem)+ − #Minnesota, 3.48% (Dem)+ − + − + − + − #Wisconsin (Obama 50% - McCain 37%, [http://www.news.wisc.edu/15313 University of Wisconsin])+ − #Iowa (Obama 45% - McCain 38%, [http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/iowa/election_2008_iowa_presidential_election Rasmussen])+ − #New Hampshire (Obama 48% - McCain 43%, [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nh/new_hampshire_mccain_vs_obama-195.html#polls Rasmussen])+ − #Ohio (Obama 48% - McCain 39%, [http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=b03c08ab-30b9-463d-8be2-5cb118e05b74 Survey USA])+ − #Pennsylvania (Obama 45% - McCain 43%, [http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/pennsylvania/election_2008_pennsylvania_presidential_election2 Rasmussen])+ − #Nevada (McCain 46% - Obama 40%, [http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/nevada/election_2008_nevada_presidential_election Rasmussen])+ − #Michigan (Obama 45% - McCain 42%, [http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/michigan/election_2008_michigan_presidential_election Rasmussen])+ − #Minnesota (Obama 52% - McCain 39%, [http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/minnesota/election_2008_minnesota_presidential_election Rasmussen])+ − #Florida (McCain 45% - Obama 41%, [http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1180 Quinnipiac])+ − #Missouri (Obama 43% - McCain 42%, [http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/missouri/election_2008_missouri_presidential_election Rasmussen])+ − #Virginia (Obama 49% - McCain 42%, [http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=9901f8fc-034e-4a1d-ab36-f6e5c918614e Survey USA])+ − #Colorado (Obama 48% - McCain 42%, [http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/colorado/election_2008_colorado_presidential_election Rasmussen])+ − + − In addition, there are four states leaning Democratic totaling 37 electoral votes, and eight states leaning Republican totaling 69 electoral votes. The addition of these states to the battleground puts 24 states and 260 electoral votes in play.+ − + − == Republican Strategy ==+ − Strategists believe that the Republican presidential nominee must win Wisconsin or Minnesota, and hold Iowa but that the outcome in New Mexico, which has only 5 electoral votes, is irrelevant. Minnesota's margin of victory for the Democrats in 2004 probably places it out of reach for Republicans in 2008.+ − + − The inescapable conclusion is that the Republican nominee must win Wisconsin and hold Iowa in order to win the general election.{{fact}}+ − + − The Republican Party nominee is Senator John McCain, who received a majority of the delegates on the March 4th primaries. − − ===Declared Republican Party Candidates=== − − − UN Ambassador [[Alan Keyes]] − − Senator [[John McCain]], [[Arizona]] − − ===Withdrawn Republican Party Candidates=== − Senator [[Sam Brownback]], [[Kansas]], withdrew October 19, 2007, citing a lack of funding.<ref>http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5ifK7vLWH4aU4urzB-4bSX1u4QF9QD8SC0EI00</ref> Brownback also had done poorly at key conservative milestones, such as the [[Value Voters Debate]].<ref>http://www.valuesvoterdebate.com/pollresults.cfm, Brownback lost sizably to [[Mike Huckabee]].</ref> He endorsed Senator [[John McCain]] of [[Arizona]]. − − Former Governor [[Jim Gilmore]], [[Virginia]], withdrew July 14, 2007 − − Former Mayor [[Rudy Giuliani|Rudolph Giuliani]], [[New York City]] He withdrew after a defeat in [[Florida]], on which he had depended on heavily. He endorsed John McCain afterwards. − − Former Governor [[Mike Huckabee]], [[Arkansas]]. He withdrew from the race once McCain recieved the 1,191 delegates needed to win the nomination. He also promised to support McCain as the nominee, thus giving his endorsement to him. − − Representative [[Duncan Hunter]], [[California]] 52nd, withdrew January 19, 2008 and endorsed Governor Mike Huckabee. − − Representative [[Ron Paul]], [[Texas]] 14th, withdrew June 12, 2008. − − Former Governor [[Mitt Romney]], [[Massachusetts]], suspended his campaign after poor showings on [[Super Tuesday]] and later endorsed John McCain. − − Representative [[Tom Tancredo]], [[Colorado]] 6th, withdrew December 20, 2007. He endorsed fmr. Governor [[Mitt Romney]] of [[Massachusetts]]. − − Former Senator [[Fred Thompson]], [[Tennessee]]. He endorsed [[John McCain]] of Arizona. − − Former Governor and HS Secretary [[Tommy Thompson]], withdrew August 12, 2007. He endorsed fmr. Mayor [[Rudy Giuliani]] of [[New York]]. − − ===Potential Republican Candidates Who Declined to Run=== − *Former Senator [[George Allen]], Virginia - endorsed Fred Thompson. − *Former Governor [[Jeb Bush]], [[Florida]] - endorsed John McCain. − *[[Vice President]] [[Dick Cheney]] − *Former Senate Majority Leader [[Bill Frist]], Tennessee − *Former [[Speaker of the House]] [[Newt Gingrich]], [[Georgia]] − *Senator [[Chuck Hagel]], [[Nebraska]] − *Former Governor [[George Pataki]], New York − *[[Secretary of State]] [[Condoleezza Rice]] − *Governor [[Mark Sanford]], [[South Carolina]] − *Former Senator [[Rick Santorum]], [[Pennsylvania]] − − ===Potential Republican Vice-Presidential Candidates=== − *[[Haley Barbour]] - Governor of [[Mississippi]] − *[[Matt Blunt]] - Governor of [[Missouri]] − *[[Sam Brownback]] - U.S. Senator from [[Kansas]] − *[[Jeb Bush]] - former Governor of [[Florida]] − *[[Tom Coburn]] - U.S. Senator from [[Oklahoma]] − *[[Charlie Crist]] - Governor of [[Florida]]] − *[[Jim DeMint]] - U.S. Senator from [[South Carolina]] − *[[Bill Frist]] - former U.S. Senator and Senate Majority Leader from [[Tennessee]] − *[[Rudy Giuliani]] - former Mayor of [[New York City]] − *[[Lindsey Graham]] - U.S. Senator from [[South Carolina]] − *[[Mike Huckabee]] - former Governor of [[Arkansas]] − *[[Kay Bailey Hutchison]] - U.S. Senator from [[Texas]] − *[[Bobby Jindal]] - Governor of [[Louisiana]] − *[[Joe Lieberman]] - U.S. Senator from [[Connecticut]] − *[[Bill Owens]] - former Governor of [[Colorado]] − *[[Sarah Palin]] - Governor of [[Alaska]] − *[[Tim Pawlenty]] - Governor of [[Minnesota]] − *[[David Petraeus]] - Commanding General, Multinational Force [[Iraq]] − *[[Colin Powell]] - former United States [[Secretary of State]] − *[[Condoleezza Rice]] - United States Secretary of State − *[[Tom Ridge]] - former Homeland Security Secretary and Former Governor of [[Pennsylvania]] − *[[Mitt Romney]] - former Governor of [[Massachusetts]] − *[[Mark Sanford]] - Governor of South Carolina − *[[Michael Steele]] - former Lt. Governor of [[Maryland]] − *[[Fred Thompson]] - former U.S. Senator from Tennessee − *[[John Thune]] - U.S. Senator from [[South Dakota]] − − == Democratic Strategy == − As usual, the best strategy for Democrats is a hot topic for debate among members of that party and independent [[pundits]]. [[Daily Kos]] can occasionally provide arguments on the strategy that should be pursued by Democrats, although most posts there are simply rants against the Republicans or Democrats deemed insufficiently [[liberal]], which led [[Barack Obama]] to say in 2006 that he found the site "predictable." A majority of Democrats are confident that the cratering popularity of [[President]] [[George W. Bush]] and particularly [[Operation Iraqi Freedom]] puts them in a highly favorable position for 2008, to the extent it may even be their race to lose. − − However, evaluating the race in [[Electoral College]] terms forces caution upon the Democrats. Between the [[United States presidential election, 2000]] and the [[United States Presidential election, 2004]], only three states budged from one party to the other: New Mexico (from Democratic to Republican), Iowa (from Democratic to Republican) and New Hampshire (from Republican to Democratic). The American people would seem to be not only strongly divided, but in the vast majority of states, faithful over a period of years to their chosen parties. Not even the [[September 11, 2001 attacks]] could persuade the people of New York to vote Republican, for example, and it is highly unlikely that the depopulation of [[New Orleans]] will be considered a good reason for the majority of voters in Louisiana to become Democrats. The phrase [[Second Coming Republicans]] (or Democrats) takes on new meaning in light of the relative lack of party-switching in response to these events. − − Had all three of the above [[swing states]] voted Democratic in 2000, and everything else remained the same, [[Al Gore]] would have become President in 2001, so this is the result Democrats should especially aim for. This does not necessarily mean they can let their guard down in the states that voted their way in both of the last two elections. − − Evaluating the race by historic analogy, the last Senator elected President and the last Northern Democrat elected President were the same person: [[John F. Kennedy]], in the [[United States presidential election, 1960]]. If this pattern continues to hold true this cycle, the candidate best positioned this year was [[Bill Richardson]], who was cast somewhat against type as a member of the [[National Rifle Association]] and also has the distinction of being from one of the three [[swing states]] cited above. In strong second place would probably be [[John Edwards]], but it has been difficult for Democrats to carry the state of [[North Carolina]] in a Presidential election. [[Lyndon B. Johnson]] was the last person to do so, just after writing off most of the South for the Democratic Party by passing the [[1964 Civil Rights Act]]. Still, the Democrats, as pointed out above, feel for the most part that this is their race to lose and may "let it all hang out" in the belief that any of their first-tier candidates will handily defeat a [[generic]] Republican candidate. − − The ''move on masses'' of the blogosphere require that any Democratic candidate frame the election as an attack on George Bush. Since they can't run against the President, the attack will be on ''Bush Politics'', chiefly the Iraq War and the Bush tax cuts. That stance will be echoed repeatedly regardless of whatever real situation taking place in Iraq (where American forces turned over strategic control of the last province, Al Anbar) or in the economy (where the Dow hit record highs, before accounting for inflation, as recently as October 2007 and unemployment is near all time lows). The blogosphere led democrats to be overconfident in 2004, over estimating their voting support among young people who actually vote. However, with Democrats in control of both houses this election remains critical. − − ===Declared Democratic Party Candidates=== − − Senator [[Barack Obama]], [[Illinois]] − − === Withdrawn Democratic Party candidates === − − Senator [[Joseph Biden]], [[Delaware]]<ref> http://youdecide08.foxnews.com/2008/01/04/chris-dodd-abandons-presidential-campaign-after-poor-showing-in-iowa/ </ref> He withdrew after a disappointing finish in the [[Iowa Caucus]]. − − Senator [[Hillary Clinton]], [[New York]] Suspended her campaign after Obama reached the number of needed delegates. She endorsed him shortly afterwards. − − Senator [[Chris Dodd]], [[Connecticut]]<ref> http://youdecide08.foxnews.com/2008/01/04/chris-dodd-abandons-presidential-campaign-after-poor-showing-in-iowa/</ref> He withdrew after a disappointing finish in the [[Iowa Caucus]] and later endorsed Senator [[Barack Obama]]. − − Former Senator [[John Edwards]], [[North Carolina]]. He withdrew after losing in all of the early primary states. He later endorsed Senator Obama after Obama won the North Carolina primary. − − Former Senator [[Mike Gravel]], [[Alaska]]. He withdrew to seek the Libertarian party nomination (which he lost to Bob Barr.) He also endorsed Green Party Candidate, Jesse Johnson. <ref> http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/03/12/democratic-candidate-gravel-endorses-green-party-presidential-hopeful/ </ref> − − Representative [[Dennis Kucinich]], [[Ohio]] 10th<ref> http://youdecide08.foxnews.com/2008/01/24/kucinich-drops-presidential-bid/ </ref> He withdrew to keep his seat in the House of Representatives. − − Governor [[Bill Richardson]], [[New Mexico]]<ref> − [http://youdecide08.foxnews.com/2008/01/09/ap-bill-richardson-drops-out-of-democratic-presidential-race/ AP: Bill Richardson Drops Out of Democratic Presidential Race], [[Associated Press]], [[Fox News Channel]], January 9, 2008</ref> He withdrew after twin fourth-place finishes (in Iowa and New Hampshire) that showed his credentials could not compete with his rivals’ star power. He later endorsed Senator Obama. − − Former Governor [[Tom Vilsack]], Iowa. He endorsed [[Hillary Clinton]] of [[New York]] − − ===Potential Democratic Candidates Who Declined to Run=== − *Senator [[Evan Bayh]], [[Indiana]] - endorsed Hillary Clinton − *[[General]] [[Wesley Clark]] (Ret.) - endorsed Hillary Clinton − *Former Senate Minority Leader [[Tom Daschle]], [[South Dakota]] − *Former Governor and current DNC Chairman [[Howard Dean]], [[Vermont]] − *Senator [[Russ Feingold]], [[Wisconsin]] − *Former Vice President [[Al Gore]], [[Tennessee]] − *Senator [[John Kerry]], Massachusetts - endorsed Barack Obama − *Rev. [[Al Sharpton]] − *Former Governor [[Mark Warner]], [[Virginia]] − − ===Potential Democratic Vice-Presidential Candidates=== − *Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana − *Senator Joe Biden of Delaware − *General Wesley Clark (Ret.) − *Senator Hillary Clinton of New York − *Former Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle of South Dakota − *Former Senator and 2004 Vice-Presidential nominee John Edwards of North Carolina − *Governor [[Ed Rendell]] of [[Pennsylvania]] − *Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico − *Senator Barack Obama of Illinois − *Governor [[Ted Strickland]] of [[Ohio]] − *Former Governor Tom Vilsack of Iowa − *Governor Tim Kaine of Virginia − *Former Governor Mark Warner of Virginia − *Senator [[Jim Webb]] of Virginia − − ==Third parties and Independents== − ===Libertarian party=== − The [[Libertarian Party]] selected former Representative [[Bob Barr]] of [[Georgia]] as its 2008 presidential candidate on May 25, 2008.<ref>http://www.lpconvention.org/</ref> Former Democratic canididate [[Mike Gravel]] sought the Libertarian nomination but lost to Barr.<ref> http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/05/25/libertarians-pick-barr-as-presidential-nominee/ </ref> − − Barr has, on his campaign website, linked to a proposed Libertarian strategy laid out by a member of his campaign staff. Although Barr has not officially claimed this as his strategy, the link appears to be a tacit endorsement. The strategy is called the "gold states" strategy. Instead of waging a 50-state campaign with the aim of securing 270 electoral votes and an outright electoral college win, Barr would focus on about 18-20 states where neither Obama or McCain has strong support. Winning that number of states could net Barr from 180-200 electoral votes, and would exceed either Obama or McCain's number and prevent either of them from reaching 270. Under US Constitution Amendment 12, with no candidate having an electoral vote majority, the election would be thrown into the House of Representatives, which would have to choose the president from the top three electoral vote getters. At this stage, Barr could argue that as the top electoral vote recipient, he should become the President, and might draw support from conservative Democrats displeased with Obama's positions, and from Republicans who dislike McCain. − − Although winning the largest number of electoral votes would assist Barr in making such an argument, it is not absolutely necessary. Given the close divide in the electoral vote in the 2000 and 2004 elections, Barr could throw the vote into the House by winning a handful of states to garner perhaps 15-20 electoral votes. − − ===Constitution Party=== − The [[Constitution Party]] held its convention in Kansas City, Kansas, on April 24 through April 27. The party nominated Pastor [[Chuck Baldwin]] over former U.N. Ambassador and Republican presidential candidate [[Alan Keyes]].<ref> http://www.constitutionparty.com/news.php?aid=751 </ref> − − ===Green Party=== − Former Representative [[Cynthia McKinney]], who was defeated after voting against the [[Iraq War]] and arrested on battery charges after striking a Capitol Hill police officer, is considering bid on the [[environmentalist]] [[Green Party]] ticket.<ref>http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,62891,00.html</ref> The Green Party will nominate its candidate for president at its convention in July 2008.<ref>http://www.gp.org/2008-elections/index.shtml</ref> − − ===Independents=== − [[Ralph Nader]] announced his independent candidacy for president on February 24, 2008, to focus on "stem[ming] corporate crime and Pentagon waste and promot[ing] labor rights", issues he feels are ignored by the main parties.<ref>http://www.foxnews.com/wires/2008Feb24/0,4670,APNader,00.html</ref> His [[running mate]] is former President of the San Francisco Board of Supervisors [[Matt Gonzalez]].<ref>http://www.votenader.org/about/matt-gonzalez/</ref> − − New York City Mayor [[Michael Bloomberg]] has been frequently mentioned as a possible independent candidate for the 2008 presidential election and fueled that speculation when he left the Republican Party in June 2007. However, he declared in a February 28, 2008, op-ed article in ''The New York Times'', "I am not—and will not be—a candidate for president," but added that "[i]f a candidate takes an independent, nonpartisan approach—and embraces practical solutions that challenge party orthodoxy—I’ll join others in helping that candidate win the White House."<ref>[http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/28/opinion/28mike.html?_r=1&oref=slogin "I'm Not Running for President, but..."]</ref> − − ==Opinion polling== − CNN's current "Poll of Polls", an average of four national polls (Gallup, CNN, CBS, and Cook Political Report) currently has [[Barack Obama]] leading [[John McCain]] 47%-43%. [http://www.cnn.com/POLITICS/] − − Real Clear Politics, which uses the average of the above four national polls, in addition to Rasmussen, IBD, and USA Today, has [[Barack Obama]] leading [[John McCain]] 47%-42.7%. [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html] − − In addition, Real Clear Politics uses the average of Rasmussen, CBS News, Pew Research and Newsweek to track favorable/unfavorable ratings for the two candidates. [[John McCain|McCain]] currently has a favorable/unfavorable rating of 47%-41%, a +6 spread.[http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/mccain_favorableunfavorable-642.html] [[Barack Obama|Obama]] currently has a rating of 51.5%-37.8%, a +13.7 spread. [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/obama_favorableunfavorable-643.html] − − Most polling that has been done fails to include all the candidates who will actually be on the ballot in November. A Rasmussen poll on May 18, reported on a four-way race between Barack Obama, John McCain, Ralph Nader and Bob Barr. The poll, which was conducted before Barr became the Libertarian nominee and made a number of high-profile talk show appearances, found that Barr would finish in third place with 6% of the vote, and Nader with 4%.[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/will_third_party_candidates_tip_the_presidential_race] Another poll conducted around that time showed Barr picking up 8% of the vote in [[Georgia]].[http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_520_404.aspx] − − ==Primaries and Caucuses== − ===Iowa Caucus: January 3, 2008=== − The first caucus in the 2008 presidential election cycle was the [[Iowa Caucus]]. The Democratic winner of the Iowa caucus was [[Barack Obama]], who managed to beat national frontrunner [[Hillary Clinton]] and former [[North Carolina]] Senator, [[John Edwards]]. The official results were: − {| style="backround:white; color:blue" border="1" class="wikitable" − |+ Dem. Iowa caucus results − |- − ! candidates − ! percentage − |- − | Barack Obama − | 38% − |- − | John Edwards − | 30% − |- − | Hillary Clinton − | 29% − |- − | Bill Richardson − | 2% − |- − | Joseph Biden − | 1% − |- − |} − Other candidates such as, [[Chris Dodd]], [[Dennis Kucinich]] and [[Mike Gravel]] did not gain a significant percentage. Because of the Iowa results, [[Barack Obama]] was expected now to beat [[Hillary Clinton]] in the upcoming [[New Hampshire]] primary. Also, [[Joe Biden]] and [[Chris Dodd]] both withdrew from the race because of their low showings in the Iowa caucus. − − On the Republican side, [[Mike Huckabee]] defeated [[Mitt Romney]] by an even closer margin. The results were: − {| {| style="backround:white; color:red" border="1" class="wikitable" − |+ GOP Iowa caucus results − |- − ! Candidate − ! percentage − |- − | Mike Huckabee − | 34% − |- − | Mitt Romney − | 25% − |- − | Fred Thompson − | 13% − |- − | John McCain − | 13% − |- − | Ron Paul − | 10% − |- − | Rudy Giuliani − | 3% − |} − − Candidates such as [[Duncan Hunter]], [[Alan Keyes]] and [[John H. Cox]] didn't come out with a significant percentage. Romney's loss in [[Iowa]] set him back in the upcoming primary in [[New Hampshire]]. Huckabee's win however gave him surge in [[New Hampshire]] where he had before been very low in the polls. McCain's unexpected high showing in Iowa also gave him a little boost in New Hampshire. − − ===New Hampshire Primary: January 8, 2008=== − The next milestone after the Iowa caucus was the New Hampshire primary. (Only the Republican Wyoming primary occurred on January 5, which was won by Romney.) On the Republican side, Mitt Romney's defeat in Iowa helped his most significant opponent, John McCain. Huckabee's victory in Iowa helped boost his campaign and gave him a higher showing than even he had expected. On the Democratic side, Obama's defeat of Clinton and Edwards led to the polls usually predicting a Obama victory in New Hampshire. − The winner for the Repbulicans was John McCain and for the Democrats Hillary Clinton. The Democratic results were: − − {| {| style="backround:white; color:blue" border="1" class="wikitable" − |+ Dem. NH primary results − |- − ! Candidate − ! percentage − |- − | Hillary Clinton − | 39% − |- − | Barack Obama − | 36% − |- − | John Edwards − | 17% − |- − | Bill Richardson − | 5% − |- − | Dennis Kucinich − | 1% − |} − − Hillary Clinton's win was a setback for Obama and much-needed victory for Clinton. The polls reliability was most hurt with these results. (Mike Gravel didn't reach a significant percentage.) − The Republican results were: − − {| {| style="backround:white; color:red" border="1" class="wikitable" − |+ GOP NH primary results − |- − ! Candidate − ! percentage − |- − | John McCain − | 37% − |- − | Mitt Romney − | 31% − |- − | Mike Huckabee − | 11% − |- − | Rudy Giuliani − | 9% − |- − | Ron Paul − | 8% − |- − | Fred Thompson − | 1% − |- − | Duncan Hunter − | 1% − |} − − These results put the very survival of Mitt Romney on the line and intensified the upcoming Michigan primary. John McCain's victory helped boost his campaign and he predicted to go on to victory in Michigan and South Carolina. Huckabee also did well and placed an unusual third place. − − ===Michigan, Nevada and South Carolina=== − Romney's second-place defeat in Iowa and New Hampshire, caused his campaign to focus all it's attention on the Michigan Primary on January 15th. He managed to defeat his rivals, John McCain and Mike Huckabee. − Since the Democrats had taken Michigan's delegates away, most of the candidates didn't even bother to get on the ballot. Clinton won easily, because she was one of the only major candidates to be even on the ballot. − Romney and the Democrats turned their attention to the Nevada caucus, while Republicans John McCain, Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson looked to the South Carolina primary. (The Republicans had the South Carolina primary on the same day as the Nevada caucus, January 19th.) − The Democratic results were: − {| {| style="backround:white; color:blue" border="1" class="wikitable" − |+ Dem. Nevada caucus results − |- − ! Candidate − ! Percentage − |- − | Hillary Clinton − | 51% − |- − | Barack Obama − | 45% − |- − | John Edwards − | 4% − |} − − Hillary Clinton probably won because of her strong position on the Yukka Mountain issue, which was critical to Democratic caucus goers. − Romney easily won the Republican Nevada caucus, probably because it is close to Utah, a traditionally Mormon state. Duncan Hunter had been hoping for a strong finish in Nevada and decided to leave the race, because of his poor showings. − − {| {| style="backround:white; color:red" border="1" class="wikitable" − |+ GOP SC caucus results − |- − ! Candidate − ! percentage − |- − | John McCain − | 33% − |- − | Mike Huckabee − | 30% − |- − | Fred Thompson − | 16% − |- − | Mitt Romney − | 15% − |- − | Ron Paul − | 4% − |- − | Rudy Giuliani − | 2% − |} − − McCain’s victory in South Carolina propelled him as the national front-runner. Mike Huckabee’s 2nd place defeat forced him to cut back in expenses due to lack of funds. Fred Thompson’s defeat was irreparable and he withdrew from the race shortly afterwards − − The Democrats prepared for the primary in South Carolina on January 26th. Obama won the primary by a huge margin over Clinton and Edwards. This was a severe loss for Edwards since he had been born in South Carolina and was Senator for North Carolina. Obama probably won because of the state’s huge black population. − − ===Florida Primary: January 29, 2008=== − Because Florida moved it's date to January 29th the Democratic party stripped Florida of it's delegates and the candidates agreed not to campaign there. − The Democratic results were: − {| {| style="backround:white; color:blue" border="1" class="wikitable" − |+ Dem. Florida primary results − |- − ! candidates − ! percentage − |- − | Hillary Clinton − | 50% − |- − | Barack Obama − | 33% − |- − | John Edwards − | 14% − |- − | Joe Biden − | 1% − |- − | Bill Richardson − | 1% − |- − | Dennis Kucinich − | 1% − |} − Florida was the last early primary state and after his loss, John Edwards suspended his campaign. (Although they had withdrawn, candidates Biden, Richardson and Kucinich still received votes. Mike Gravel didn't receive a percentage.) − The Republicans concentrated on Florida more than the Democrats, because the Republican party chose to remove only half of their delegates. Candidate [[Rudy Giuliani]] was so concentrated on Florida, he chose to ignore all of the other primaries before that. John McCain and Mitt Romney both gained momentum and began to lead Giuliani in the polls. − The Republican results were: − {| {| style="backround:white; color:red" border="1" class="wikitable" − |+ GOP Florida primary results − |- − ! candidates − ! percentage − |- − | John McCain − | 36% − |- − | Mitt Romney − | 31% − |- − | Rudy Giuliani − | 15% − |- − | Mike Huckabee − | 13% − |- − | Ron Paul − | 3% − |- − | Fred Thompson − | 1% − |} − − The results caused Giuliani to exit the race the next day and endorse the primary winner, John McCain. (Although Fred Thompson had withdrawn he got some support anyway.) − − ===Super Tuesday: February 5, 2008=== − Super Tuesday held the largest number of presidential primary's and caucuses. Twenty-four states were held for one or both parties were held on this date. − − *The Democratic results were: − *Candidates − *Hillary Clinton, 9 states won, ([[American Samoa]], [[Arizona]], [[Arkansas]], [[California]], [[Massachusetts]], [[New Jersey]], [[New Mexico]], [[New York]], [[Oklahoma]], [[Tennessee]].) Number of delegates won, 826. − *Barack Obama, 13 states won, ([[Alabama]], [[Alaska]], [[Colorado]], [[Connecticut]], [[Delaware]], [[Georgia]], [[Idaho]], [[Illinois]], [[Kansas]], [[Minnesota]], [[Missouri]], [[North Dakota]], [[Utah]].) Number of delegates won, 838. − − *GOP Super Tuesday primary results − *John McCain, 9 states won, (Arizona, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma). Number of delegates won: 602. − *Mitt Romney, 7 states won, (Alaska, Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, Utah). Number of delegates won: 201. − *Mike Huckabee, 5 states won, (Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, West Virginia). Number of delegates won: 152. − *Ron Paul, 0 states won. Number of delegates won: 10 − − ===February 9th Primaries=== − The next major primary after Super Tuesday was on February 9, 2008. The Democrats held contests in [[Louisiana]], [[Nebraska]] & [[Washington]]. The Republicans held three other contests in [[Kansas]], [[Louisiana]] & [[Washington]]. − Governor Huckabee won Kansas and Louisiana, but lost to McCain in Washington by a close margin. Barrack Obama won all three Democratic contests, and also won the Maine caucus, the next day on February 10th. − − ===Potomac Primary: February 12, 2008=== − The next primary-date was the Potomac primary on February 12. It is called that because the three states; [[District of Columbia]], [[Maryland]] and [[Virginia]], which all were near the Potomac River, had their primary date on the same date. John McCain won all three Republican contests, while Barrack Obama won all of the Democratic contests. − − ===Super Tuesday 2: March 4, 2008=== − After Obama won his 11th consecutive victory on the February 19th primaries in [[Wisconsin]] and [[Hawaii]], Clinton was desperate to win the March 4th primaries in [[Ohio]], [[Texas]], [[Rhode Island]] & [[Vermont]]. Huckabee also needed more victories to prevent McCain from reaching the needed 1,191 delegates for the Republican nomination. − − Clinton won all of the states except for Vermont, which Obama won. McCain won all of the primaries, causing Governor Huckabee to leave the race that evening. − − ===Pennsylvania Primary=== − After Clinton's victories on Super Tuesday 2, both Democrats looked ahead to the Pennsylvania primary on April 22nd. Obama lost some popularity after his Pastor, Rev. [[Jeremiah Wright]], said "God damn America!" in the pulpit. Obama also commented about people bitterly clinging to guns and religion because they were upset with Washington policies. Clinton beat Obama by 9 percentage points, continuing the long drawn-out contest between the two. John McCain was able to easily win the primary as the Republican party's presumptive nominee. − − ==See Also== − [[Previous Breaking News/2008 Presidential Election|Articles about the '''2008 Presidential Election''' from previous "Breaking News"]] − − == References == − <small><references/></small> − − {{2008 presidential candidates}} − [[Category: United States]]
United States Presidential Election, 2008 (view source)
Revision as of 21:45, June 13, 2008
, 21:45, June 13, 2008Son of Schlafly! Kneel before Ob!
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== Battleground States ==
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[[CNN]] declares that the outcome in [[McCain]] v. [[Obama]] is a toss-up in only 12 states, totaling only 154 electors:<ref>http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/10/electoral.map/index.html</ref> (Most recent poll numbers, and polling outfit)
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[[John H. Cox]]