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Line 198: − The largest polls, Rasmussen and Gallop, show Obama with leads of 3% and 4% respectively as of July 15th, 2008.<ref>http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll</ref><ref>http://www.gallup.com/poll/108835/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Maintains-Slight-Advantage.aspx</ref>. Ramussen also finds the favorable rating for each candidate at 55%.<ref>http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll</ref>+ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
United States Presidential Election, 2008 (view source)
Revision as of 16:25, July 17, 2008
, 16:25, July 17, 2008→Opinion polling
==Opinion polling==
==Opinion polling==
{| class="wikitable"
|-
! Polling Outfit
! Date
! Sample
! Obama (D)
! McCain (R)
|-
| [http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll Rasmussen Tracking]
| 07/14 - 07/16
| 3000 LV
| 46
| 46
|-
| [http://www.gallup.com/poll/108862/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Leads-McCain-Three-Points.aspx Gallup Tracking]
| 07/13 - 07/15
| 2638 RV
| 47
| 44
|-
| [http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/CBSNews_polls/JUL08a-Campaign08.pdf CBS News/NYT]
| 07/17 - 07/14
| 1462 RV
| 45
| 39
|-
| [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/abcpolls.pdf ABC News/Wash Post]
| 07/10 - 07/13
| LV
| 49
| 46
|-
| [http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN1535315320080716 Reuters/Zogby]
| 07/09 - 07/13
| 1039 LV
| 47
| 40
|-
| [http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1295.xml?ReleaseID=1192 Quinnipiac]
| 07/08 - 07/13
| 1725 LV
| 50
| 41
|-
| [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ibdtippjuly08.pdf IBD/TIPP]
| 07/07 - 07/11
| 854 RV
| 40
| 37
|-
| [http://www.newsweek.com/id/145556 Newsweek]
| 07/09 -07/10
| 1037 RV
| 44
| 41
|}
Ramussen finds the favorable rating for each candidate at 55%.<ref>http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll</ref>
Most polling that has been done fails to include all the candidates who will actually be on the ballot in November. A Rasmussen poll on May 18, reported on a four-way race between Barack Obama, John McCain, Ralph Nader and Bob Barr. The poll, which was conducted before Barr became the Libertarian nominee and made a number of high-profile talk show appearances, found that Barr would finish in third place with 6% of the vote, and Nader with 4%.<ref>http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/will_third_party_candidates_tip_the_presidential_race</ref> Another poll conducted around that time showed Barr picking up 8% of the vote in [[Georgia]], seriously hurting McCain's chances of winning that state.<ref>http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_520_404.aspx</ref> It should be noted that in the actual elections, third party candidates such as Barr and Nader generally have much lower percentage of votes cast for them than they poll beforehand.
Most polling that has been done fails to include all the candidates who will actually be on the ballot in November. A Rasmussen poll on May 18, reported on a four-way race between Barack Obama, John McCain, Ralph Nader and Bob Barr. The poll, which was conducted before Barr became the Libertarian nominee and made a number of high-profile talk show appearances, found that Barr would finish in third place with 6% of the vote, and Nader with 4%.<ref>http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/will_third_party_candidates_tip_the_presidential_race</ref> Another poll conducted around that time showed Barr picking up 8% of the vote in [[Georgia]], seriously hurting McCain's chances of winning that state.<ref>http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_520_404.aspx</ref> It should be noted that in the actual elections, third party candidates such as Barr and Nader generally have much lower percentage of votes cast for them than they poll beforehand.