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Line 14: − == Analysis of State by Region == − Because of the [[electoral college]] system in the United States, it is important to analyze the presidential election by each state. These states are grouped into regions. − + − + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + − === Mid-Atlantic ===+ − [[New York]], [[Delaware]], and [[Maryland]] are solidly Democrat and will vote for Obama this election. [[New Jersey]] is less so, but still has Democratic leanings, and will probably go for Obama. [[Pennsylvania]] is a very important swing state for both candidates, as it has 21 electoral votes, fifth most in the nation, and has both liberal and conservative elements. In recent years, the state has moved toward becoming Democrat. However, it is not yet at the point that is safely in the Democratic camp, and will still be focused on heavily by both candidates during this election cycle. McCain still has a very good chance because Obama was unable to connect with the working-class citizens of Pennsylvania during the Democratic primary. − === South-Atlantic ===+ − [[Washington, D.C.]] is overwhelmingly liberal and will vote for Obama; however, with three electoral votes its significance is limited. [[Virginia]] has become a competitive state; despite the relative success of Republicans in the state in the past, polling indicates that this year, the state could go either way. Democrats will work on increasing the voter turnout in the northern part of the state, with a high population of D.C. transplants. McCain has stayed strong in the state, relying on the southern regions and a strong military presence to support him. In the Carolinas, which usually votes Republican, McCain is seen as having the edge, but Obama may be competitive in these states if he mobilizes the African-American population. [[Georgia]] is the state where a third-party candidate can make the most difference. At this point John McCain is still considered the favorite, however, if [[Bob Barr]] takes away a significant portion of the Republican vote the Obama may have a chance, especially if there is a large black turnout. [[Florida]] is a very close swing state, most famously known for its role in [[Election 2000]]. In recent years, recognizing, for example Barack Obama's naive declaration that he would meet with leaders such as [[Fidel Castro]], Floridians have leaned Republican. An important constituency in this state is the [[Jewish]] population, who are continuing to support Obama over McCain, according to recent polling. Cuban-Americans, who would be most upset with the idea of meeting with Fidel Castro, are also very important. − === Deep South ===+ − John McCain will do very well in the deep south. This includes the states of [[Texas]], [[Alabama]], [[Mississippi]], [[Louisiana]], [[Oklahoma]], [[Arkansas]], [[Tennessee]], [[Kentucky]] and [[West Virginia]]. This area is generally [[conservative]], and many of these states have not voted for a Democrat in a long time. Here, John McCain is very popular, and there should be no contest. Although Obama believes in a fifty-state strategy, it is unlikely that such a strategy will be helpful in getting out the vote in these states apart from the black population. Line 45:
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Line 411: − − == Democratic Strategy == − As usual, the best strategy for Democrats is a hot topic for debate among members of that party and independent [[pundits]]. [[Daily Kos]] can occasionally provide arguments on the strategy that should be pursued by Democrats, although most posts there are simply rants against the Republicans or Democrats deemed insufficiently [[liberal]], which led [[Barack Obama]] to say in 2006 that he found the site "predictable." A majority of Democrats are confident that the cratering popularity of [[President]] [[George W. Bush]] and particularly [[Operation Iraqi Freedom]] puts them in a highly favorable position for 2008, to the extent it may even be their race to lose. − − However, evaluating the race in [[Electoral College]] terms forces caution upon the Democrats. Between the [[United States presidential election, 2000]] and the [[United States Presidential election, 2004]], only three states budged from one party to the other: New Mexico (from Democratic to Republican), Iowa (from Democratic to Republican) and New Hampshire (from Republican to Democratic). The American people would seem to be not only strongly divided, but in the vast majority of states, faithful over a period of years to their chosen parties. Not even the [[September 11, 2001 attacks]] could persuade the people of New York to vote Republican, for example, and it is highly unlikely that the depopulation of [[New Orleans]] will be considered a good reason for the majority of voters in Louisiana to become Democrats. The phrase [[Second Coming Republicans]] (or Democrats) takes on new meaning in light of the relative lack of party-switching in response to these events. − − Had all three of the above [[swing state]]s voted Democratic in 2000, and everything else remained the same, [[Al Gore]] would have become President in 2001, so this is the result Democrats should especially aim for. This does not necessarily mean they can let their guard down in the states that voted their way in both of the last two elections. − − Evaluating the race by historic analogy, the last Senator elected President and the last Northern Democrat elected President were the same person: [[John F. Kennedy]], in the [[United States presidential election, 1960]]. If this pattern continues to hold true this cycle, the candidate best positioned this year was [[Bill Richardson]], who was cast somewhat against type as a member of the [[National Rifle Association]] and also has the distinction of being from one of the three swing states cited above. In strong second place would probably be [[John Edwards]], but it has been difficult for Democrats to carry the state of [[North Carolina]] in a Presidential election. [[Lyndon B. Johnson]] was the last person to do so, just after writing off most of the South for the Democratic Party by passing the [[1964 Civil Rights Act]]. Still, the Democrats, as pointed out above, feel for the most part that this is their race to lose and may "let it all hang out" in the belief that any of their first-tier candidates will handily defeat a generic Republican candidate. − − The ''move on masses'' of the blogosphere require that any Democratic candidate frame the election as an attack on George Bush. Since they can't run against the President, the attack will be on ''Bush Politics'', chiefly the Iraq War and the Bush tax cuts. That stance will be echoed repeatedly regardless of whatever real situation taking place in Iraq (where American forces turned over strategic control of the last province, Al Anbar) or in the economy (where the Dow hit record highs, before accounting for inflation, as recently as October 2007 and unemployment is near all time lows). The blogosphere led democrats to be overconfident in 2004, over estimating their voting support among young people who actually vote. However, with Democrats in control of both houses this election remains critical. − Line 294:
Line 457: − ==Third parties and Independents== − ===Libertarian party=== − The [[Libertarian Party]] selected former Representative [[Bob Barr]] of [[Georgia]] as its 2008 presidential candidate on May 25, 2008.<ref>http://www.lpconvention.org/</ref> Former Democratic canididate [[Mike Gravel]] sought the Libertarian nomination but lost to Barr.<ref> http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/05/25/libertarians-pick-barr-as-presidential-nominee/ </ref> − − Barr has, on his campaign website, linked to a proposed Libertarian strategy laid out by a member of his campaign staff. Although Barr has not officially claimed this as his strategy, the link appears to be a tacit endorsement. The strategy is called the "gold states" strategy. Instead of waging a 50-state campaign with the aim of securing 270 electoral votes and an outright electoral college win, Barr would focus on about 18-20 states where neither Obama or McCain has strong support. Winning that number of states could net Barr from 180-200 electoral votes, and would exceed either Obama or McCain's number and prevent either of them from reaching 270. Under US Constitution Amendment 12, with no candidate having an electoral vote majority, the election would be thrown into the House of Representatives, which would have to choose the president from the top three electoral vote getters. At this stage, Barr could argue that as the top electoral vote recipient, he should become the President, and might draw support from conservative Democrats displeased with Obama's positions, and from Republicans who dislike McCain. − − Although winning the largest number of electoral votes would assist Barr in making such an argument, it is not absolutely necessary. Given the close divide in the electoral vote in the 2000 and 2004 elections, Barr could throw the vote into the House by winning a handful of states to garner perhaps 15-20 electoral votes. − − The House of Representatives currently has a Democratic majority, but it is important to note that under the US Constitution Amendment 12, the vote is not a straight vote of the members of the House. Instead, each ''State'' gets one single vote, and that vote is determined by the members from that State. Although many large states like California and New York have large Democratic majorities, these will be balanced by the many smaller Southern and Midwestern states with Republican majorities. A handful of states have an even number of House members, and are split down the middle for control. − − ===Constitution Party=== − The [[Constitution Party]] held its convention in Kansas City, Kansas, on April 24 through April 27. The party nominated Pastor [[Chuck Baldwin]] over former U.N. Ambassador and Republican presidential candidate [[Alan Keyes]].<ref> http://www.constitutionparty.com/news.php?aid=751 </ref> − − ===Green Party=== − [[Cynthia McKinney]], who was defeated in her bid for re-election to the U.S. House of Representatives after voting against the [[Iraq War]] and being arrested on battery charges after striking a Capitol Hill police officer, won the [[environmentalist]] [[Green Party]]'s nomination for president at the party convention July 12, 2008. Running for Vice President on the Green ticket is "Hip-Hop activist and journalist" Rosa Clemente.<ref>http://www.gp.org/press/pr-national.php?ID=79</ref> − − ===Independents=== − [[Ralph Nader]] announced his independent candidacy for president on February 24, 2008, to focus on "stem[ming] corporate crime and Pentagon waste and promot[ing] labor rights", issues he feels are ignored by the main parties.<ref>http://www.foxnews.com/wires/2008Feb24/0,4670,APNader,00.html</ref> His [[running mate]] is former President of the San Francisco Board of Supervisors [[Matt Gonzalez]].<ref>http://www.votenader.org/about/matt-gonzalez/</ref> − − New York City Mayor [[Michael Bloomberg]] has been frequently mentioned as a possible independent candidate for the 2008 presidential election and fueled that speculation when he left the Republican Party in June 2007. However, he declared in a February 28, 2008, op-ed article in ''The New York Times'', "I am not—and will not be—a candidate for president," but added that "[i]f a candidate takes an independent, nonpartisan approach—and embraces practical solutions that challenge party orthodoxy—I’ll join others in helping that candidate win the White House."<ref>[http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/28/opinion/28mike.html?_r=1&oref=slogin "I'm Not Running for President, but..."]</ref> − − ==Opinion polling== − {| class="wikitable" − |- − ! Polling Outfit − ! Date − ! Sample* − ! Obama (D) − ! McCain (R) − |- − | [http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll Rasmussen Tracking] − | 07/30 - 08/01 − | 3000 LV − | 44 − | 43 − |- − | [http://www.gallup.com/poll/109219/Gallup-Daily-Race-Tied-44.aspx Gallup Poll] − | 07/29 - 07/31 − | 2682 RV − | 44 − | 44 − |- − | [http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/07/30/campaign.poll/index.html CNN] − | 07/27 - 07/29 − | 914 RV − | 51 − | 44 − |- − | [http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,390301,00.html Fox News Channel] − | 07/22 - 07/23 − | 900 RV − | 41 − | 40 − |- − | [http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/sections/news/080723_Released.pdf NBC/WSJ] − | 07/18 - 07/21 − | 1003 RV − | 47 − | 41 − |- − |} − − *RV refers to registered voters, LV refers to likely voters. − − Most polling that has been done fails to include all the candidates who will actually be on the ballot in November. A Rasmussen poll on May 18, reported on a four-way race between Barack Obama, John McCain, Ralph Nader and Bob Barr. The poll, which was conducted before Barr became the Libertarian nominee and made a number of high-profile talk show appearances, found that Barr would finish in third place with 6% of the vote, and Nader with 4%.<ref>http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/will_third_party_candidates_tip_the_presidential_race</ref> Another poll conducted around that time showed Barr picking up 8% of the vote in [[Georgia]], seriously hurting McCain's chances of winning that state.<ref>http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_520_404.aspx</ref> It should be noted that in the actual elections, third party candidates such as Barr and Nader generally have much lower percentage of votes cast for them than they poll beforehand. − − Due to the nature of the presidential election, relying on state-by-state electoral votes as opposed to the nationwide popular vote, nationwide polls may be less predictive of the election results. An alternative approach is to take aggregate results of state-by-state polling in order to create an electoral map. Using this approach, Pollster.com currently places 284 electoral votes in the Democratic column and 147 electoral votes in the Republican column, with 107 toss-up votes. <ref>http://www.pollster.com/</ref>
United States Presidential Election, 2008 (view source)
Revision as of 18:33, August 2, 2008
, 18:33, August 2, 2008More states, rearranging
The internet has also played a major role in the election, with then-Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul and Democratic candidate Barack Obama being very active on the internet.
The internet has also played a major role in the election, with then-Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul and Democratic candidate Barack Obama being very active on the internet.
== Uncommitted Electorate ==
== Uncommitted Electorate ==
As of July 30th, 2008 14% of respondents are undecided, almost twice as high as the 8% at a similar time period in 2004.<ref>http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/in_white_house_race_twice_as_many_voters_uncommitted_compared_to_four_years_ago</ref>
As of July 30th, 2008 14% of respondents are undecided, almost twice as high as the 8% at a similar time period in 2004.<ref>http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/in_white_house_race_twice_as_many_voters_uncommitted_compared_to_four_years_ago</ref>
=== New England ===
==Opinion polling==
[[Barack Hussein Obama]] is almost certain to win almost every state in this region, which tend to be very [[liberal]]. The only exception is in New Hampshire, where [[John McCain]] is well liked and George Bush won in 2000. This state is expected to be competitive. On the other hand, with only four electoral votes, the impact on the election will not be as great as some other battleground states.
{| class="wikitable"
|-
! Polling Outfit
! Date
! Sample*
! Obama (D)
! McCain (R)
|-
| [http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll Rasmussen Tracking]
| 07/30 - 08/01
| 3000 LV
| 44
| 43
|-
| [http://www.gallup.com/poll/109219/Gallup-Daily-Race-Tied-44.aspx Gallup Poll]
| 07/29 - 07/31
| 2682 RV
| 44
| 44
|-
| [http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/07/30/campaign.poll/index.html CNN]
| 07/27 - 07/29
| 914 RV
| 51
| 44
|-
| [http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,390301,00.html Fox News Channel]
| 07/22 - 07/23
| 900 RV
| 41
| 40
|-
| [http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/sections/news/080723_Released.pdf NBC/WSJ]
| 07/18 - 07/21
| 1003 RV
| 47
| 41
|-
|}
*RV refers to registered voters, LV refers to likely voters.
Most polling that has been done fails to include all the candidates who will actually be on the ballot in November. A Rasmussen poll on May 18, reported on a four-way race between Barack Obama, John McCain, Ralph Nader and Bob Barr. The poll, which was conducted before Barr became the Libertarian nominee and made a number of high-profile talk show appearances, found that Barr would finish in third place with 6% of the vote, and Nader with 4%.<ref>http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/will_third_party_candidates_tip_the_presidential_race</ref> Another poll conducted around that time showed Barr picking up 8% of the vote in [[Georgia]], seriously hurting McCain's chances of winning that state.<ref>http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_520_404.aspx</ref> It should be noted that in the actual elections, third party candidates such as Barr and Nader generally have much lower percentage of votes cast for them than they poll beforehand.
Due to the nature of the presidential election, relying on state-by-state electoral votes as opposed to the nationwide popular vote, nationwide polls may be less predictive of the election results. An alternative approach is to take aggregate results of state-by-state polling in order to create an electoral map. Using this approach, Pollster.com currently places 284 electoral votes in the Democratic column and 147 electoral votes in the Republican column, with 107 toss-up votes. <ref>http://www.pollster.com/</ref>
== State by State Breakdown ==
== State by State Breakdown ==
It is assumed that the 2008 election will be similar where close battles in a few states could determine the outcome. Individual state polling numbers for the 2008 election so far:
It is assumed that the 2008 election will be similar where close battles in a few states could determine the outcome. Individual state polling numbers for the 2008 election so far:
* Red = Republican
* Red = McCain leading
* Blue = Democrat
* Blue = Obama leading
{| class="wikitable"
{| class="wikitable"
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/alaska/election_2008_alaska_presidential_election Rasmussen]
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/alaska/election_2008_alaska_presidential_election Rasmussen]
| 7/31/08
| 7/31/08
|- style="backround:white; color:red"
|Arkansas
|37%
|47%
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/arkansas/election_2008_arkansas_presidential_election Rasmussen]
|7/17/08
|- style="backround:white; color:red"
|Arizona
|40%
|49%
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/arizona/election_2008_arizona_presidential_election Rasmussen]
|6/25/08
|- style="backround:white; color:blue"
|California
|50%
|38%
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/california/election_2008_california_presidential_election Rasmussen]
|7/24/08
|- style="backround:white; color:blue"
|- style="backround:white; color:blue"
|Colorado
|Colorado
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/iowa/election_2008_iowa_presidential_election Rasmussen]
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/iowa/election_2008_iowa_presidential_election Rasmussen]
|7/10/08
|7/10/08
|- style="backround:white; color:red"
|Georgia
|39%
|48%
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/georgia/election_2008_georgia_presidential_election Rasmussen]
|7/17/08
|- style="backround:white; color:blue"
|Illinois
|50%
|37%
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/illinois/election_2008_illinois_presidential_election Rasmussen]
|7/08/08
|- style="backround:white; color:red"
|Kansas
|32%
|52%
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/kansas/election_2008_kansas_presidential_election Rasmuseen]
|7/14/08
|- style="backround:white; color:red"
|- style="backround:white; color:red"
|Kentucky
|Kentucky
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/kentucky/election_2008_kentucky_presidential_election Rasmussen]
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/kentucky/election_2008_kentucky_presidential_election Rasmussen]
|7/29/08
|7/29/08
|- style="backround:white; color:blue"
|Maine
|46%
|36%
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/maine/election_2008_maine_presidential_election Rasmussen]
|7/17/08
|- style="backround:white; color:blue"
|- style="backround:white; color:blue"
|Michigan
|Michigan
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2008_new_hampshire_presidential_election Rasmussen]
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2008_new_hampshire_presidential_election Rasmussen]
|7/23/08
|7/23/08
|- style="backround:white; color:blue"
|New Mexico
|46%
|41%
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_mexico/election_2008_new_mexico_presidential_election Rasmussen]
|7/24/08
|- style="backround:white; color:blue"
|New York
|60%
|29%
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_york/election_2008_new_york_presidential_election Rasmussen]
|6/30/08
|- style="backround:white; color:red"
|North Carolina
|42%
|45%
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/north_carolina/election_2008_north_carolina_presidential_election Rasmussen]
|7/15/08
|-
|North Dakota
|43%
|43%
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/north_dakota/election_2008_north_dakota_presidential_election Rasmussen]
|7/09/08
|- style="backround:white; color:red"
|- style="backround:white; color:red"
|Ohio
|Ohio
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/ohio/election_2008_ohio_presidential_election Rasmussen]
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/ohio/election_2008_ohio_presidential_election Rasmussen]
|7/21/08
|7/21/08
|- style="backround:white; color:blue"
|Oregon
|46%
|37%
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/oregon/election_2008_oregon_presidential_election Rasmussen]
|7/15/08
|- style="backround:white; color:blue"
|- style="backround:white; color:blue"
|Pennsylvania
|Pennsylvania
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/pennsylvania/election_2008_pennsylvania_presidential_election2 Rasmussen]
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/pennsylvania/election_2008_pennsylvania_presidential_election2 Rasmussen]
|7/22/08
|7/22/08
|- style="backround:white; color:red"
|South Dakota
|40%
|44%
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/south_dakota/election_2008_south_dakota_presidential_election2 Rasmussen]
|7/09/08
|- style="backround:white; color:red"
|- style="backround:white; color:red"
|Texas
|Texas
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/virginia/election_2008_virginia_presidential_election Rasmussen]
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/virginia/election_2008_virginia_presidential_election Rasmussen]
|7/16/08
|7/16/08
|- style="backround:white; color:blue"
|Washington
|48%
|39%
|[http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/washington/election_2008_washington_presidential_election Rasmussen]
|7/09/08
|- style="backround:white; color:blue"
|- style="backround:white; color:blue"
|Wisconsin
|Wisconsin
|}
|}
== Analysis of State by Region ==
Because of the [[electoral college]] system in the United States, it is important to analyze the presidential election by each state. These states are grouped into regions.
=== New England ===
[[Barack Hussein Obama]] is almost certain to win almost every state in this region, which tend to be very [[liberal]]. The only exception is in New Hampshire, where [[John McCain]] is well liked and George Bush won in 2000. This state is expected to be competitive. On the other hand, with only four electoral votes, the impact on the election will not be as great as some other battleground states.
=== Mid-Atlantic ===
[[New York]], [[Delaware]], and [[Maryland]] are solidly Democrat and will vote for Obama this election. [[New Jersey]] is less so, but still has Democratic leanings, and will probably go for Obama. [[Pennsylvania]] is a very important swing state for both candidates, as it has 21 electoral votes, fifth most in the nation, and has both liberal and conservative elements. In recent years, the state has moved toward becoming Democrat. However, it is not yet at the point that is safely in the Democratic camp, and will still be focused on heavily by both candidates during this election cycle. McCain still has a very good chance because Obama was unable to connect with the working-class citizens of Pennsylvania during the Democratic primary.
=== South-Atlantic ===
[[Washington, D.C.]] is overwhelmingly liberal and will vote for Obama; however, with three electoral votes its significance is limited. [[Virginia]] has become a competitive state; despite the relative success of Republicans in the state in the past, polling indicates that this year, the state could go either way. Democrats will work on increasing the voter turnout in the northern part of the state, with a high population of D.C. transplants. McCain has stayed strong in the state, relying on the southern regions and a strong military presence to support him. In the Carolinas, which usually votes Republican, McCain is seen as having the edge, but Obama may be competitive in these states if he mobilizes the African-American population. [[Georgia]] is the state where a third-party candidate can make the most difference. At this point John McCain is still considered the favorite, however, if [[Bob Barr]] takes away a significant portion of the Republican vote the Obama may have a chance, especially if there is a large black turnout. [[Florida]] is a very close swing state, most famously known for its role in [[Election 2000]]. In recent years, recognizing, for example Barack Obama's naive declaration that he would meet with leaders such as [[Fidel Castro]], Floridians have leaned Republican. An important constituency in this state is the [[Jewish]] population, who are continuing to support Obama over McCain, according to recent polling. Cuban-Americans, who would be most upset with the idea of meeting with Fidel Castro, are also very important.
=== Deep South ===
John McCain will do very well in the deep south. This includes the states of [[Texas]], [[Alabama]], [[Mississippi]], [[Louisiana]], [[Oklahoma]], [[Arkansas]], [[Tennessee]], [[Kentucky]] and [[West Virginia]]. This area is generally [[conservative]], and many of these states have not voted for a Democrat in a long time. Here, John McCain is very popular, and there should be no contest. Although Obama believes in a fifty-state strategy, it is unlikely that such a strategy will be helpful in getting out the vote in these states apart from the black population.
== General Strategy ==
McCain's team wants to convince the electorate of the long-term leadership and experience that John McCain has shown in two decades of government service while emphasizing the relative untested nature of Barak Obama.
Obama's team wants to convince the electorate that Obama is the candidate of fresh ideas while downplaying his relative inexperience compared to the more seasoned McCain. When possible, McCain is lumped together with George Bush, an unpopular President.
== Republican Strategy ==
== Republican Strategy ==
===Swing States (Great Lakes Region)===
===Swing States (Great Lakes Region)===
Strategists believe that the Republican presidential nominee must win Wisconsin or Minnesota, and hold Iowa but that the outcome in New Mexico, which has only 5 electoral votes, is irrelevant. Minnesota's margin of victory for the Democrats in 2004 probably places it out of reach for Republicans in 2008. This is confirmed by recent polling. However, due to the location of the Republican Convention in Minnesota, and if Governor Pawlenty is chosen as McCain's vice presidential pick, the state, with ten electoral votes, can come back into play. The inescapable conclusion is that the Republican nominee must win Wisconsin and hold Iowa in order to win the general election.{{fact}
Strategists believe that the Republican presidential nominee must win Wisconsin or Minnesota, and hold Iowa but that the outcome in New Mexico, which has only 5 electoral votes, is irrelevant. Minnesota's margin of victory for the Democrats in 2004 probably places it out of reach for Republicans in 2008. This is confirmed by recent polling. However, due to the location of the Republican Convention in Minnesota, and if Governor Pawlenty is chosen as McCain's vice presidential pick, the state, with ten electoral votes, can come back into play.
===Other Important Swing States===
===Other Important Swing States===
Moreover, it is very important for republicans to hold Ohio and Florida. Fortunately, both states have tended to lean republican in the last two presidential elections. Although Florida was disputed in election 2000, it went to Bush undeniably in 2004. Virginia will also be heavily contested this year.
Moreover, it is very important for republicans to hold Ohio and Florida. Fortunately, both states have tended to lean republican in the last two presidential elections. Although Florida was disputed in election 2000, it went to Bush undeniably in 2004. Virginia will also be heavily contested this year.
== Democratic Strategy ==
As usual, the best strategy for Democrats is a hot topic for debate among members of that party and independent [[pundits]]. [[Daily Kos]] can occasionally provide arguments on the strategy that should be pursued by Democrats, although most posts there are simply rants against the Republicans or Democrats deemed insufficiently [[liberal]], which led [[Barack Obama]] to say in 2006 that he found the site "predictable." A majority of Democrats are confident that the cratering popularity of [[President]] [[George W. Bush]] and particularly [[Operation Iraqi Freedom]] puts them in a highly favorable position for 2008, to the extent it may even be their race to lose.
However, evaluating the race in [[Electoral College]] terms forces caution upon the Democrats. Between the [[United States presidential election, 2000]] and the [[United States Presidential election, 2004]], only three states budged from one party to the other: New Mexico (from Democratic to Republican), Iowa (from Democratic to Republican) and New Hampshire (from Republican to Democratic). The American people would seem to be not only strongly divided, but in the vast majority of states, faithful over a period of years to their chosen parties. Not even the [[September 11, 2001 attacks]] could persuade the people of New York to vote Republican, for example, and it is highly unlikely that the depopulation of [[New Orleans]] will be considered a good reason for the majority of voters in Louisiana to become Democrats. The phrase [[Second Coming Republicans]] (or Democrats) takes on new meaning in light of the relative lack of party-switching in response to these events.
Had all three of the above [[swing state]]s voted Democratic in 2000, and everything else remained the same, [[Al Gore]] would have become President in 2001, so this is the result Democrats should especially aim for. This does not necessarily mean they can let their guard down in the states that voted their way in both of the last two elections.
Evaluating the race by historic analogy, the last Senator elected President and the last Northern Democrat elected President were the same person: [[John F. Kennedy]], in the [[United States presidential election, 1960]]. If this pattern continues to hold true this cycle, the candidate best positioned this year was [[Bill Richardson]], who was cast somewhat against type as a member of the [[National Rifle Association]] and also has the distinction of being from one of the three swing states cited above. In strong second place would probably be [[John Edwards]], but it has been difficult for Democrats to carry the state of [[North Carolina]] in a Presidential election. [[Lyndon B. Johnson]] was the last person to do so, just after writing off most of the South for the Democratic Party by passing the [[1964 Civil Rights Act]]. Still, the Democrats, as pointed out above, feel for the most part that this is their race to lose and may "let it all hang out" in the belief that any of their first-tier candidates will handily defeat a generic Republican candidate.
The ''move on masses'' of the blogosphere require that any Democratic candidate frame the election as an attack on George Bush. Since they can't run against the President, the attack will be on ''Bush Politics'', chiefly the Iraq War and the Bush tax cuts. That stance will be echoed repeatedly regardless of whatever real situation taking place in Iraq (where American forces turned over strategic control of the last province, Al Anbar) or in the economy (where the Dow hit record highs, before accounting for inflation, as recently as October 2007 and unemployment is near all time lows). The blogosphere led democrats to be overconfident in 2004, over estimating their voting support among young people who actually vote. However, with Democrats in control of both houses this election remains critical.
==Third parties and Independents==
===Libertarian party===
The [[Libertarian Party]] selected former Representative [[Bob Barr]] of [[Georgia]] as its 2008 presidential candidate on May 25, 2008.<ref>http://www.lpconvention.org/</ref> Former Democratic canididate [[Mike Gravel]] sought the Libertarian nomination but lost to Barr.<ref> http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/05/25/libertarians-pick-barr-as-presidential-nominee/ </ref>
Barr has, on his campaign website, linked to a proposed Libertarian strategy laid out by a member of his campaign staff. Although Barr has not officially claimed this as his strategy, the link appears to be a tacit endorsement. The strategy is called the "gold states" strategy. Instead of waging a 50-state campaign with the aim of securing 270 electoral votes and an outright electoral college win, Barr would focus on about 18-20 states where neither Obama or McCain has strong support. Winning that number of states could net Barr from 180-200 electoral votes, and would exceed either Obama or McCain's number and prevent either of them from reaching 270. Under US Constitution Amendment 12, with no candidate having an electoral vote majority, the election would be thrown into the House of Representatives, which would have to choose the president from the top three electoral vote getters. At this stage, Barr could argue that as the top electoral vote recipient, he should become the President, and might draw support from conservative Democrats displeased with Obama's positions, and from Republicans who dislike McCain.
Although winning the largest number of electoral votes would assist Barr in making such an argument, it is not absolutely necessary. Given the close divide in the electoral vote in the 2000 and 2004 elections, Barr could throw the vote into the House by winning a handful of states to garner perhaps 15-20 electoral votes.
The House of Representatives currently has a Democratic majority, but it is important to note that under the US Constitution Amendment 12, the vote is not a straight vote of the members of the House. Instead, each ''State'' gets one single vote, and that vote is determined by the members from that State. Although many large states like California and New York have large Democratic majorities, these will be balanced by the many smaller Southern and Midwestern states with Republican majorities. A handful of states have an even number of House members, and are split down the middle for control.
===Constitution Party===
The [[Constitution Party]] held its convention in Kansas City, Kansas, on April 24 through April 27. The party nominated Pastor [[Chuck Baldwin]] over former U.N. Ambassador and Republican presidential candidate [[Alan Keyes]].<ref> http://www.constitutionparty.com/news.php?aid=751 </ref>
===Green Party===
[[Cynthia McKinney]], who was defeated in her bid for re-election to the U.S. House of Representatives after voting against the [[Iraq War]] and being arrested on battery charges after striking a Capitol Hill police officer, won the [[environmentalist]] [[Green Party]]'s nomination for president at the party convention July 12, 2008. Running for Vice President on the Green ticket is "Hip-Hop activist and journalist" Rosa Clemente.<ref>http://www.gp.org/press/pr-national.php?ID=79</ref>
===Independents===
[[Ralph Nader]] announced his independent candidacy for president on February 24, 2008, to focus on "stem[ming] corporate crime and Pentagon waste and promot[ing] labor rights", issues he feels are ignored by the main parties.<ref>http://www.foxnews.com/wires/2008Feb24/0,4670,APNader,00.html</ref> His [[running mate]] is former President of the San Francisco Board of Supervisors [[Matt Gonzalez]].<ref>http://www.votenader.org/about/matt-gonzalez/</ref>
New York City Mayor [[Michael Bloomberg]] has been frequently mentioned as a possible independent candidate for the 2008 presidential election and fueled that speculation when he left the Republican Party in June 2007. However, he declared in a February 28, 2008, op-ed article in ''The New York Times'', "I am not—and will not be—a candidate for president," but added that "[i]f a candidate takes an independent, nonpartisan approach—and embraces practical solutions that challenge party orthodoxy—I’ll join others in helping that candidate win the White House."<ref>[http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/28/opinion/28mike.html?_r=1&oref=slogin "I'm Not Running for President, but..."]</ref>
==Historical Information==
===Withdrawn Republican Party Candidates===
===Withdrawn Republican Party Candidates===
*[[Fred Thompson]] - former U.S. Senator from Tennessee
*[[Fred Thompson]] - former U.S. Senator from Tennessee
*[[John Thune]] - U.S. Senator from [[South Dakota]]
*[[John Thune]] - U.S. Senator from [[South Dakota]]
=== Withdrawn Democratic Party candidates ===
=== Withdrawn Democratic Party candidates ===
*Senator [[Jim Webb]] of Virginia
*Senator [[Jim Webb]] of Virginia
==Primaries and Caucuses==
==Primaries and Caucuses==