Changes

Most polling that has been done fails to include all the candidates who will actually be on the ballot in November. A Rasmussen poll on May 18, reported on a four-way race between Barack Obama, John McCain, Ralph Nader and Bob Barr. The poll, which was conducted before Barr became the Libertarian nominee and made a number of high-profile talk show appearances, found that Barr would finish in third place with 6% of the vote, and Nader with 4%.<ref>http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/will_third_party_candidates_tip_the_presidential_race</ref> Another poll conducted around that time showed Barr picking up 8% of the vote in [[Georgia]], seriously hurting McCain's chances of winning that state.<ref>http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_520_404.aspx</ref>  It should be noted that in the actual elections, third party candidates such as Barr and Nader generally have much lower percentage of votes cast for them than they poll beforehand.  Also, when possible, polling is reported without counting 'leaners'.  Leaners so far have been favoring McCain.

Most polling that has been done fails to include all the candidates who will actually be on the ballot in November. A Rasmussen poll on May 18, reported on a four-way race between Barack Obama, John McCain, Ralph Nader and Bob Barr. The poll, which was conducted before Barr became the Libertarian nominee and made a number of high-profile talk show appearances, found that Barr would finish in third place with 6% of the vote, and Nader with 4%.<ref>http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/will_third_party_candidates_tip_the_presidential_race</ref> Another poll conducted around that time showed Barr picking up 8% of the vote in [[Georgia]], seriously hurting McCain's chances of winning that state.<ref>http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_520_404.aspx</ref>  It should be noted that in the actual elections, third party candidates such as Barr and Nader generally have much lower percentage of votes cast for them than they poll beforehand.  Also, when possible, polling is reported without counting 'leaners'.  Leaners so far have been favoring McCain.

Due to the nature of the presidential election, relying on state-by-state electoral votes as opposed to the nationwide popular vote, nationwide polls may be less predictive of the election results.  An alternative approach is to take aggregate results of state-by-state polling in order to create an electoral map. So far most polling sites doing this have found the election close and not strongly favoring either Obama or McCain, much as the general polling has shown, although generally dependent on how leaning states vote on election day.<ref>http://www.pollster.com/</ref><ref>[http://www.politico.com/convention/swingstate.html Politico's 2008 Swing State Map]</ref><ref>[http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right]</ref>

Due to the nature of the presidential election, relying on state-by-state electoral votes as opposed to the nationwide popular vote, nationwide polls may be less predictive of the election results.  An alternative approach is to take aggregate results of state-by-state polling in order to create an electoral map. Approximately one month before the election, most polling sites doing this have found the election leaning further towards Obama, much as the general polling has shown.  As of October 10th, Pollster.com showed 158 electoral votes in the McCain column, compared with 320 in the Obama column.<ref>http://www.pollster.com/</ref><ref>[http://www.politico.com/convention/swingstate.html Politico's 2008 Swing State Map]</ref><ref>[http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right]</ref>

== McCain vs. Obama ==

== McCain vs. Obama ==