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===Bankruptcy scenario===
===Bankruptcy scenario===
Bankruptcy of the Big Three would be very expensive to the economy as a whole and the federal government. It would mean loss of 240,000 very high paying jobs at the Big Three, a loss of 980,000 high-paying jobs at the suppliers and local dealers, and 1.7 million jobs throughout the economy. It would cause a decline in personal income of $151 billion the first year, and $398 billion over three years. The federal, state and local governments would lose tax revenue and spend on welfare programs a total of $156 billion over three years.<ref> CAR Research Memorandum. "The Impact of the U.S. Economy of a Major Contraction of the Detroit Three Automakers" (Nov 2008) [http://www.cargroup.org/documents/FINALDetroitThreeContractionImpact_3__000.pdf online edition]</ref>
Bankruptcy of the Big Three would be very expensive to the economy as a whole and the federal government. It would mean loss of 240,000 very high paying jobs at the Big Three, a loss of 980,000 high-paying jobs at the suppliers and local dealers, and 1.7 million jobs throughout the economy. It would cause a decline in personal income of $151 billion the first year, and $398 billion over three years. The federal, state and local governments would lose tax revenue and spend on welfare programs a total of $156 billion over three years.<ref> CAR Research Memorandum. "The Impact of the U.S. Economy of a Major Contraction of the Detroit Three Automakers" (Nov 2008) [http://www.cargroup.org/documents/FINALDetroitThreeContractionImpact_3__000.pdf online edition]</ref>
A bankruptcy of the Big Three would not quickly benefit foreign makers. The transplants would be severely hurt by the closing of parts companies like American Axle, Delco and Visteon they share with the Big Three, and their output would fall. There would be far fewer new cars for sale for years, and prices would soar. Eventually imports would come from abroad, but they would be much more expensive than current autos. It takes years to build new plants, and in the current financial crisis there is no funding available for risky multi-billion dollar manufacturing ventures.<ref> Louis Uchitelle, "If Detroit Falls, Foreign Makers Could Be Buffer," [http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/17/business/economy/17impact.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin ''New York Times,'' Nov. 16. 2008] </ref>
==World history==
==World history==
===Germany===
===Germany===