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== McCain vs. Obama ==

== McCain vs. Obama ==

McCain had the early edge, wrapping up the Republican nomination before Obama was known to be the choice of the Democrats, but this was one of the few advantages he has had.  Both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama raised far more money than McCain and the Democratic primary saw a surge of new voters coming out leading to a large increase in the rolls of Democrats.  From the historical position of a generally equal number of Republicans and Democrats, the numbers have now tilted 41% Democrat to only 32% Republican.  From the time that Obama was declared the nominee, opinion polling showed him with a modest advantage over McCain in terms of who the voters would choose to be their next President.

McCain had the early edge, wrapping up the Republican nomination before Obama was known to be the choice of the Democrats, but this was one of the few advantages he has had.  Both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama raised far more money than McCain, and the Democratic primary saw a surge of new voters coming out leading to a large increase in the rolls of Democrats.  From the historical position of a generally equal number of Republicans and Democrats, the numbers have now tilted 41% Democrat to only 32% Republican.  From the time that Obama was declared the nominee, opinion polling showed him with a modest advantage over McCain in terms of who the voters would choose to be their next President.

Obama's strategy was to tie McCain to George Bush, a very unpopular President, even though McCain was not a part of the Bush administration and often clashed with Bush during his time as senator.  McCain, for his part, had to walk a fine line with accepting praise from the President to woo conservatives, while at the same time keeping enough distance so as to not alienate moderates.  When possible, McCain went after Obama's lack of foreign policy experience.

Obama's strategy was to tie McCain to George Bush, a very unpopular President, even though McCain was not a part of the Bush administration and often clashed with Bush during his time as senator.  McCain, for his part, had to walk a fine line with accepting praise from the President to woo conservatives, while at the same time keeping enough distance so as to not alienate moderates.  When possible, McCain went after Obama's lack of foreign policy experience.

On paper, the nomination would seem to heavily favor the Democrats.  Overall, Democrat candidates have a +10% advantage over Republicans in a 'generic' election.  The current unpopular President is a Republican, and the economy is treading water.  Also, based on statistical percentages of articles on each candidate, Obama was being focused on with press coverage far more than McCain.  When McCain chastised Obama for his lack of foreign policy experience and that he hadn't been to Iraq or Afghanistan in years, Obama's campaign set up for him to take a trip to both countries.  While this is expected in politics, the decision of every major network to send a team of reporters to follow him was unprecedented.  Obama spoke to 200,000 people in Berlin in a highly covered speech.  McCain spoke to 50,000 in Buffalo shortly thereafter and barely got a whisper.  Obama's numbers started to rise, but a good deal of the populace was noticing the disparity as 48% of those polled felt the press was trying to help Obama win.

On paper, the nomination would seem to heavily favor the Democrats.  Overall, Democrat candidates have a +10% advantage over Republicans in a 'generic' election.  In addition, the current unpopular President is a Republican, and the economy is treading water.  Also, based on statistical percentages of articles on each candidate, Obama was being focused on by the press far more than McCain.  When McCain chastised Obama for his lack of foreign policy experience and that he hadn't been to Iraq or Afghanistan in years, Obama's campaign set up for him to take a trip to both countries.  While this is expected in politics, the decision of every major network to send a team of reporters to follow him was unprecedented.  Obama spoke to 200,000 people in Berlin in a highly covered speech.  McCain spoke to 50,000 in Buffalo shortly thereafter and barely got a whisper.  Obama's numbers started to rise, but a good deal of the populace was noticing the disparity as 48% of those polled felt the press was trying to help Obama win.

Obama seemed pleased to coast on his advantages, but McCain realized he needed to shake things up.  He scored by pushing offshore drilling for oil during a time when oil prices were climbing almost daily.  Obama rejected the idea, but the poll numbers started to show a greater percentage of Americans warming to the concept<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/61_say_congress_should_vote_on_offshore_drilling_right_now Offshore Drilling poll]</ref> and McCain's numbers started to improve.  Obama announced he would accept some measure of offshore drilling, and McCain's momentum was halted and his gains retreated by a couple of points.  McCain started an ad campaign that acknowledged Obama's celebrity status, but asking what it meant.  A few days later at the start of August he called out Obama for 'playing the race card' when Obama made a reference to McCain and Bush trying to scare people because he (Obama) doesn't look like other Presidents on dollar bills.  The Democrats fired back, but quickly let the issue drop when poll numbers showed that most voters did consider Obama's statement to be racist.<ref>http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/only_22_say_mccain_ad_racist_but_over_half_53_see_obama_dollar_bill_comment_that_way</ref>.  The bounce for Obama after the Berlin speech shrank back to pre-trip levels.  While Obama continued to enjoy a slight lead in the polls, McCain continued to keep the race close without either candidate breaking away.  

Obama seemed pleased to coast on his advantages, but McCain realized he needed to shake things up.  He scored by pushing offshore drilling for oil during a time when oil prices were climbing almost daily.  Obama rejected the idea, but the poll numbers started to show a greater percentage of Americans warming to the concept<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/61_say_congress_should_vote_on_offshore_drilling_right_now Offshore Drilling poll]</ref> and McCain's numbers started to improve.  Obama announced he would accept some measure of offshore drilling, and McCain's momentum was halted and his gains retreated by a couple of points.  McCain started an ad campaign that acknowledged Obama's celebrity status, but asking what it meant.  A few days later at the start of August he called out Obama for 'playing the race card' when Obama made a reference to McCain and Bush trying to scare people because he (Obama) doesn't look like other Presidents on dollar bills.  The Democrats fired back, but quickly let the issue drop when poll numbers showed that most voters did consider Obama's statement to be racist.<ref>http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/only_22_say_mccain_ad_racist_but_over_half_53_see_obama_dollar_bill_comment_that_way</ref>.  The bounce for Obama after the Berlin speech shrank back to pre-trip levels.  While Obama continued to enjoy a slight lead in the polls, McCain continued to keep the race close without either candidate breaking away.  

In mid-August both candidates came together at the invitation of Pastor [[Rick Warren]] where each was asked a series of the same questions dealing both with political and personal views.  While not a debate, it was the first televised forum where both candidates had a chance to express themselves and their positions.  Obama hoped to appeal to Christian conservatives by expressing a religious side while McCain hoped to solidify the conservative base by sharing his own conservative and religious credentials.  The difference in style between the two was evident as Obama spent more time explaining and expounding on his positions while McCain was more straight-forward and received more laughs with his candid speaking style.  The polling numbers continued as they had been.

In mid-August, both candidates came together at the invitation of Pastor [[Rick Warren]] where each was asked a series of the same questions dealing both with political and personal views.  While not a debate, it was the first televised forum where both candidates had a chance to express themselves and their positions.  Obama hoped to appeal to Christian conservatives by expressing a religious side while McCain hoped to solidify the conservative base by sharing his own conservative and religious credentials.  The difference in style between the two was evident as Obama spent more time explaining and expounding on his positions while McCain was more straight-forward and received more laughs with his candid speaking style.  The polling numbers continued as they had been.

There was a bounce at the start of the Democratic convention, but not what was expected as McCain suddenly drew even in the race.  The friction between Hillary Clinton and Obama as well as the perceived slight of Hillary when Biden was chosen as the Vice Presidential candidate hurt Obama at a time when his approval was expected to climb.  McCain then made a mistake by airing an ad of Hillary Clinton that 'supported' him.  Clinton was set to speak at the convention and it was no secret that there was bad blood between her and Obama and it was widely believed that her support for Obama would be lukewarm at best.  Instead, apparently galvanized by McCain's hubris before her speech, she came out strongly for Obama and rallied those who supported her.  Obama's pre-convention edge returned.  Obama followed it up with a very strong speech the next day in a huge stadium with fireworks and a Greek temple.  [[Dick Morris]], a political pundit usually giving advice to Republicans felt that Obama had done such a good job reaching out to the groups that he needed that he would pull ahead by double-digits.  In order to suppress the bounce from the convention, McCain announced his Vice Presidential candidate the next day, a woman, Alaskan governor [[Sarah Palin]].  The bounce for Obama was muted at first, but increased in the following days to surpass pre-convention levels, especially as Sarah Palin came under heavy attack in the media.

There was a bounce at the start of the Democratic convention, but not what was expected as McCain suddenly drew even in the race.  The friction between Hillary Clinton and Obama as well as the perceived slight of Hillary when Biden was chosen as the Vice Presidential candidate hurt Obama at a time when his approval was expected to climb.  McCain then made a mistake by airing an ad of Hillary Clinton that 'supported' him.  Clinton was set to speak at the convention and it was no secret that there was bad blood between her and Obama and it was widely believed that her support for Obama would be lukewarm at best.  Instead, apparently galvanized by McCain's hubris before her speech, she came out strongly for Obama and rallied those who supported her.  Obama's pre-convention edge returned.  Obama followed it up with a very strong speech the next day in a huge stadium with fireworks and a Greek temple.  [[Dick Morris]], a political pundit usually giving advice to Republicans, felt that Obama had done such a good job reaching out to the groups that he needed that he would pull ahead by double-digits.  In order to suppress the bounce from the convention, McCain announced his Vice Presidential candidate the next day, a woman, Alaskan governor [[Sarah Palin]].  The bounce for Obama was muted at first, but increased in the following days to surpass pre-convention levels, especially as Sarah Palin came under heavy attack in the media.

The edge continued as the Republican convention began.  Losing a day to the hurricane, their shortened convention came out strong as well, emphasizing John McCain as a patriot and a maverick for change who is tested and will do what is right for the country regardless of political affiliation.  It was notable for the secondary role that the sitting President played, talking only briefly and barely being mentioned after that.  The convention tied McCain to [[Ronald Reagan]], a popular Republican President who was able to gain the support of a good number of conservative Democrats, an ability that McCain would badly need to emulate.  While the convention had very high ratings starting with Palin's well received speech, it was unclear what the impact would be in the polls.  Indeed Obama continued to lead directly afterward, but that soon changed with a turn of about 8 points and a slim lead for McCain.  The Republican convention had actually more than balanced out the powerful Democratic convention.

The edge continued as the Republican convention began.  Losing a day to the hurricane, their shortened convention came out strong as well, emphasizing John McCain as a patriot and a maverick for change who is tested and will do what is right for the country regardless of political affiliation.  It was notable for the secondary role that the sitting President played, talking only briefly and barely being mentioned after that.  The convention tied McCain to [[Ronald Reagan]], a popular Republican President who was able to gain the support of a good number of conservative Democrats, an ability that McCain would badly need to emulate.  While the convention had very high ratings starting with Palin's well received speech, it was unclear what the impact would be in the polls.  Indeed Obama continued to lead directly afterward, but that soon changed with a turn of about 8 points and a slim lead for McCain.  The Republican convention had actually more than balanced out the powerful Democratic convention.