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Talk:Financial Crisis of 2008 (view source)
Revision as of 16:10, November 22, 2008
, 16:10, November 22, 2008no edit summary
:::I'm not sure the numbers are as dire as predicted. The auto sector makes up less of a percentage of the U.S. workforce than it did during the Chrysler bailout, and that only cost 1.2 billion. Many of the jobs would 'shift'. For instance Americans would still buy cars, so car salesmen wouldn't go out of business, they would merely be selling Toyota or Honda or some other non-US model instead. Many of the car plants that would close down enmasse would be bought by competitors who would be itching to make the sales that the American car manufacturers previously made in the world's largest economy. There would be some hard times during the transition, but the overall volume of product and how it is delivered wouldn't change much. Foreign car companies already have plants in the U.S. They would just turn up with a lot more of them. [[User:Learn together|Learn together]] 02:15, 22 November 2008 (EST)
:::I'm not sure the numbers are as dire as predicted. The auto sector makes up less of a percentage of the U.S. workforce than it did during the Chrysler bailout, and that only cost 1.2 billion. Many of the jobs would 'shift'. For instance Americans would still buy cars, so car salesmen wouldn't go out of business, they would merely be selling Toyota or Honda or some other non-US model instead. Many of the car plants that would close down enmasse would be bought by competitors who would be itching to make the sales that the American car manufacturers previously made in the world's largest economy. There would be some hard times during the transition, but the overall volume of product and how it is delivered wouldn't change much. Foreign car companies already have plants in the U.S. They would just turn up with a lot more of them. [[User:Learn together|Learn together]] 02:15, 22 November 2008 (EST)
::::I am very pessimistic. I predict if GM goes down the transplants will not make up the gap for several years; instead they will cut back production because they can't get parts (many parts companies will go under and the transplants depend on them). (It takes years and billions of dillars to build one new auto plant--we will need 20+ new plants and where is the money coming from?) US auto sales will plunge, prices will soar --like the Prius. People will pay $40k for a car that now costs $25k, and will have to wait 6 to 12 months (like in 1945-47). Americans will be very unhappy. Most GM dealers will close--they are major factories in every Main Street in the USA and are in trouble right now. The closing costs will be hundreds of billions, and a million or two well paid people (like salesmen) will be badly hurt. [[User:RJJensen|RJJensen]] 07:33, 22 November 2008 (EST)
::::I am very pessimistic. I predict if GM goes down the transplants will not make up the gap for several years; instead they will cut back production because they can't get parts (many parts companies will go under and the transplants depend on them). (It takes years and billions of dillars to build one new auto plant--we will need 20+ new plants and where is the money coming from?) US auto sales will plunge, prices will soar --like the Prius. People will pay $40k for a car that now costs $25k, and will have to wait 6 to 12 months (like in 1945-47). Americans will be very unhappy. Most GM dealers will close--they are major factories in every Main Street in the USA and are in trouble right now. The closing costs will be hundreds of billions, and a million or two well paid people (like salesmen) will be badly hurt. [[User:RJJensen|RJJensen]] 07:33, 22 November 2008 (EST)
:::::I definitely see a period of adjustment, but it's not like there are no other car companies in the world, and they are still very competitive among themselves and would try hard to get the open market of the largest car buying nation in the world. I do agree the waves could last for years as it takes time to adjust plants to other manufacturers as well. The biggest problem with the bailout right now is will it work? Unions have contracts that workers have to be paid even if they are laid off, and their pensions and medical plans are untouchable. The car companies are bleeding heavily and putting more blood into open wounds won't solve the problem. Costs are so high that the first slowdown would kill the industry -- and the upcoming slowdown looks to be as bad or worse than what they are going through presently. With the way books are kept its hard to tell how much money they really lost, but on paper it was almost 20 billion dollars in the last quarter among the three. With losses like that, apart from helping them to live a bit longer, how is any economic stimulus package going to help them? Chrysler had a plan when they needed help 30 years ago, and they implemented it to turn themselves around. Where it the plan among the automakers now other than a call for help? [[User:Learn together|Learn together]] 11:10, 22 November 2008 (EST)