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We have the potential
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:::Ours goes even a little deeper Ed.  Because an economy needs spending to grow and to continue, cutting back on spending leads to negative growth and a recession.  Since about 2/3rds of spending is at the consumer level, the economic condition is very much dependent upon perception -- and therefore to press manipulation.  So if the press keeps telling people we are in a recession, and people start to believe it and cut back their spending, then we will go into a recession.  It's a self-fulfilling prophecy.  If you see my first comment at the top of the page, the slightly negative economic growth that we sustained in the last quarter would have actually been almost 2% growth if consumer spending had just stayed constant.  But people were spooked and therefore took what would have been slow positive growth and turned it into a negative. [[User:Learn together|Learn together]] 12:58, 2 December 2008 (EST)
 
:::Ours goes even a little deeper Ed.  Because an economy needs spending to grow and to continue, cutting back on spending leads to negative growth and a recession.  Since about 2/3rds of spending is at the consumer level, the economic condition is very much dependent upon perception -- and therefore to press manipulation.  So if the press keeps telling people we are in a recession, and people start to believe it and cut back their spending, then we will go into a recession.  It's a self-fulfilling prophecy.  If you see my first comment at the top of the page, the slightly negative economic growth that we sustained in the last quarter would have actually been almost 2% growth if consumer spending had just stayed constant.  But people were spooked and therefore took what would have been slow positive growth and turned it into a negative. [[User:Learn together|Learn together]] 12:58, 2 December 2008 (EST)
 
::::Consumer confidence it at the lowest level in many years.  That's reality: people are NOT buying cars even when there are great deals.  They are NOT buying houses (which means they also buy less furniture, rugs, appliances etc). The stimulus last spring failed because people did not spend when they were told to spend. The banks are worse. they are hoarding their money and it is fairly hard to get a loan or credit card these days.[[User:RJJensen|RJJensen]] 13:13, 2 December 2008 (EST)
 
::::Consumer confidence it at the lowest level in many years.  That's reality: people are NOT buying cars even when there are great deals.  They are NOT buying houses (which means they also buy less furniture, rugs, appliances etc). The stimulus last spring failed because people did not spend when they were told to spend. The banks are worse. they are hoarding their money and it is fairly hard to get a loan or credit card these days.[[User:RJJensen|RJJensen]] 13:13, 2 December 2008 (EST)
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LT, I read the 2% growth thing earlier. I know about the [[placebo effect]] and the [[self-fulfilling prophecy]]. One reason my students have done so well is that I help them to see their potential and encourage them to fulfill my (our) [[expectation]] for them. You might even have heard of the blue eyes, brown eyes test. Economics is not a [[physical science]]. The economy does not "go" into recession. People lead other people. Each decision to buy or to save, to invest/hold/sell is a [[choice]] made by a human being with [[free will]]. (Stop me, before I start giving the [[George Bailey]] Savings and Loan speech! ;-) --[[User:Ed Poor|Ed Poor]] <sup>[[User talk:Ed Poor|Talk]]</sup> 13:27, 2 December 2008 (EST)
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