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Heading for first section.; What I've heard.
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== Is it that bad? ==
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Thank you for all of your hard work.  I would have to question though the starting premise that it is the worst financial disaster since the [[Great Depression]].  I realize that commentators are saying such, but they have a tendency to interject hyperbole to make things sound more grandoise than they should.  Do we really feel, at this point, that the current crisis is worse than the downturn in the early/mid 70's or the hard hit in the early part of Reagan's first term after the Carter Presidency?  Inflation is not 18%, unemployment is not 10%, and the GDP last quarter contracted at -0.3%, which I somehow doubt ranks as high in the list of calamities, especially when you consider that it was induced mostly by fear and a drop in consumer spending.  If consumer spending had stayed the same quarter to quarter than the GDP would have grown 1.9% last quarter instead of the -0.3 that we recorded. And that certainly would not be a 'sky is falling' scenario. [[User:Learn together|Learn together]] 22:53, 14 November 2008 (EST)
 
Thank you for all of your hard work.  I would have to question though the starting premise that it is the worst financial disaster since the [[Great Depression]].  I realize that commentators are saying such, but they have a tendency to interject hyperbole to make things sound more grandoise than they should.  Do we really feel, at this point, that the current crisis is worse than the downturn in the early/mid 70's or the hard hit in the early part of Reagan's first term after the Carter Presidency?  Inflation is not 18%, unemployment is not 10%, and the GDP last quarter contracted at -0.3%, which I somehow doubt ranks as high in the list of calamities, especially when you consider that it was induced mostly by fear and a drop in consumer spending.  If consumer spending had stayed the same quarter to quarter than the GDP would have grown 1.9% last quarter instead of the -0.3 that we recorded. And that certainly would not be a 'sky is falling' scenario. [[User:Learn together|Learn together]] 22:53, 14 November 2008 (EST)
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:::::I definitely see a period of adjustment, but it's not like there are no other car companies in the world, and they are still very competitive among themselves and would try hard to get the open market of the largest car buying nation in the world.  I do agree the waves could last for years as it takes time to adjust plants to other manufacturers as well.  The biggest problem with the bailout right now is will it work?  Unions have contracts that workers have to be paid even if they are laid off, and their pensions and medical plans are untouchable.  The car companies are bleeding heavily and putting more blood into open wounds won't solve the problem.  Costs are so high that the first slowdown would kill the industry -- and the upcoming slowdown looks to be as bad or worse than what they are going through presently.  With the way books are kept its hard to tell how much money they really lost, but on paper it was almost 20 billion dollars in the last quarter among the three.  With losses like that, apart from helping them to live a bit longer, how is any economic stimulus package going to help them?  Chrysler had a plan when they needed help 30 years ago, and they implemented it to turn themselves around.  Where it the plan among the automakers now other than a call for help? [[User:Learn together|Learn together]] 11:10, 22 November 2008 (EST)
 
:::::I definitely see a period of adjustment, but it's not like there are no other car companies in the world, and they are still very competitive among themselves and would try hard to get the open market of the largest car buying nation in the world.  I do agree the waves could last for years as it takes time to adjust plants to other manufacturers as well.  The biggest problem with the bailout right now is will it work?  Unions have contracts that workers have to be paid even if they are laid off, and their pensions and medical plans are untouchable.  The car companies are bleeding heavily and putting more blood into open wounds won't solve the problem.  Costs are so high that the first slowdown would kill the industry -- and the upcoming slowdown looks to be as bad or worse than what they are going through presently.  With the way books are kept its hard to tell how much money they really lost, but on paper it was almost 20 billion dollars in the last quarter among the three.  With losses like that, apart from helping them to live a bit longer, how is any economic stimulus package going to help them?  Chrysler had a plan when they needed help 30 years ago, and they implemented it to turn themselves around.  Where it the plan among the automakers now other than a call for help? [[User:Learn together|Learn together]] 11:10, 22 November 2008 (EST)
 
::I fear too much attention is given to 100,000 overpaid UAW workers -- there are 1 million OTHER workers who will lose their jobs--at 3600 local dealerships for Chevy, Buick, Pontiac etc. If GM shuts down car sales (including US-made and imports) will fall in half for several years, you will wait 6- 12 months to buy an imported new car, and it will cost 50% more than today. (It will take years for Japan to build new factories to service the USA, and they will charge us 50% more.) Americans will not tolerate that. (and indeed it happened in 1945-47). Furthermore the adjustment costs will be far higher than the bailout costs. The government will have to pay all the pensions of retured GM workers, for example (that's a law signed by Jerry Ford in 1976).[[User:RJJensen|RJJensen]] 18:40, 22 November 2008 (EST)
 
::I fear too much attention is given to 100,000 overpaid UAW workers -- there are 1 million OTHER workers who will lose their jobs--at 3600 local dealerships for Chevy, Buick, Pontiac etc. If GM shuts down car sales (including US-made and imports) will fall in half for several years, you will wait 6- 12 months to buy an imported new car, and it will cost 50% more than today. (It will take years for Japan to build new factories to service the USA, and they will charge us 50% more.) Americans will not tolerate that. (and indeed it happened in 1945-47). Furthermore the adjustment costs will be far higher than the bailout costs. The government will have to pay all the pensions of retured GM workers, for example (that's a law signed by Jerry Ford in 1976).[[User:RJJensen|RJJensen]] 18:40, 22 November 2008 (EST)
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I heard the thoughts of an expert the other day.  (You can dismiss this if you wish, as second-hand information from an anonymous source.  If I was you I would, but them I'm me and I heard it first-hand.)  His predictions were so gloomy that all I could hope was that he was dead wrong.  I couldn't tell you now much detail of what he said, but he indicated that it would be as bad as in the 1930s, world-wide, and would last 25 years!  I got the impression that it would be beyond the capacity of governments to solve (i.e. they wouldn't have enough money to spend their way out of it), and even though Australia (where he lives) is financially very healthy, and our main banks amongst the healthiest in the world, those banks would be in trouble and we would be affected nearly as badly as everyone else.  If you have debts, you will be in trouble.  If you have assets (shares or property), they will drop in value so much it won't be funny.  If you have cash (and presumably not in a bank!), you should be okay.
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Have a nice day!
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[[User:Philip J. Rayment|Philip J. Rayment]] 09:11, 6 December 2008 (EST)
    
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