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Specter barely won the 2004 Republican primary, which allows only registered Republicans to vote, by less than 2% against [[conservative]] challenger [[Pat Toomey]].  [[Rick Santorum]], himself a former Pennsylvania senator, described that "Specter's biggest problem ... may be that thousands of southeastern Pennsylvania Republicans who voted for him in 2004 can't vote for him in the (2010) primary. Why? Because they're no longer Republicans."  In fact, the number of registered Republicans in Pennsylvania decreased by 162,000 between 2004 and 2008.<ref>http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/americandebate/Arlen_Specter_tilting_rightward.html</ref> This is one of the main reasons why Specter switched parties; to get re-elected in 2010, he needs to rely on his left-leaning supporters.

Specter barely won the 2004 Republican primary, which allows only registered Republicans to vote, by less than 2% against [[conservative]] challenger [[Pat Toomey]].  [[Rick Santorum]], himself a former Pennsylvania senator, described that "Specter's biggest problem ... may be that thousands of southeastern Pennsylvania Republicans who voted for him in 2004 can't vote for him in the (2010) primary. Why? Because they're no longer Republicans."  In fact, the number of registered Republicans in Pennsylvania decreased by 162,000 between 2004 and 2008.<ref>http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/americandebate/Arlen_Specter_tilting_rightward.html</ref> This is one of the main reasons why Specter switched parties; to get re-elected in 2010, he needs to rely on his left-leaning supporters.

However, a recent Quinnipiac poll shows the race close at 45% for Specter and 44% for Toomey. <ref>http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1351</ref>

However, a recent [[Rasmussen]] poll shows Pat Toomey leading Specter 48% to 36%. Uncomfortable town hall meetings are just The tip of the iceberg for Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter. Specter has found himself front and center in the health care debate just as support for the reform plan proposed by [[President Obama]] and congressional Democrats has fallen to new lows nationwide.<ref>http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/pennsylvania/election_2010_pennsylvania_senate_election</ref>

==References==

==References==