Changes

After the [[Democratic Party]] successes in the 2006 off-year election (when they recaptured Congress), augmented by more gains in the [[United States Presidential Election, 2008|Presidential Election of 2008]], the question is whether the Democrats will hold their gains or slip back.  Since the Democrats have an advantage of 257-178 in the House, the GOP must gain 40 seats to recapture control. Since the Democrats control the Senate 60-40 (counting two independents and the vacant Massachusetts seat), the GOP needs to gain 11 seats in the Senate to retake control<ref>A 50-50 tie would be broken by the vice president in favor of the Democrats.</ref>; but even a one-seat gain would allow the GOP to filibuster obnoxious bills, for 60 votes are needed to break a filibuster.

After the [[Democratic Party]] successes in the 2006 off-year election (when they recaptured Congress), augmented by more gains in the [[United States Presidential Election, 2008|Presidential Election of 2008]], the question is whether the Democrats will hold their gains or slip back.  Since the Democrats have an advantage of 257-178 in the House, the GOP must gain 40 seats to recapture control. Since the Democrats control the Senate 60-40 (counting two independents and the vacant Massachusetts seat), the GOP needs to gain 11 seats in the Senate to retake control<ref>A 50-50 tie would be broken by the vice president in favor of the Democrats.</ref>; but even a one-seat gain would allow the GOP to filibuster obnoxious bills, for 60 votes are needed to break a filibuster.

==Forecasts==

==Forecasts==

Election forecasters in September 2009 were revising their predictions downward for the Democrats, as Obama's popularity continues to plunge, and the popularity of Congress remains low. Fewer people are calling themselves Democrats.  The Republican party, however, suffers from a lack of leaders and its own poor reputation in voter esteem.

Election forecasters in September 2009 were revising their predictions downward for the Democrats, as Obama's popularity continues to plunge. From April to August, Obama lost 10 points across the board--suffering losses in every group except blacks, who remain loyal to him.<ref> For details see [http://pewresearch.org/assets/pdf/1333.pdf Pew Report, Sept. 2009]</ref> The popularity of Congress remains low. Fewer people are calling themselves Democrats.  The Republican party, however, suffers from a lack of leaders and its own poor reputation in voter esteem.

"No question, August proved cathartic for voters and chaotic for congressional Democrats. But way before the town hall meetings during recess, there were ample signs for Democrats to fear for their careers in 2010," concluded Cook Political Report House analyst David Wasserman, who predicts the Democrats will lose 20 seats in the House, but retain control.<ref>See [http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/0909/Cook_Political_Report_A_dangerous_slide_for_Democrats.html Politico, "Cook Political Report: ‘A dangerous slide’ for Democrats" Sept 3, 2009 online] </ref>  Wasserman concludes that a major shift has been underway among "angry white seniors" (over age 60), who strongly dislike the Obama health care proposals because they fear they will lose benefits they now have.  

"No question, August proved cathartic for voters and chaotic for congressional Democrats. But way before the town hall meetings during recess, there were ample signs for Democrats to fear for their careers in 2010," concluded Cook Political Report House analyst David Wasserman, who predicts the Democrats will lose 20 seats in the House, but retain control.<ref>See [http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/0909/Cook_Political_Report_A_dangerous_slide_for_Democrats.html Politico, "Cook Political Report: ‘A dangerous slide’ for Democrats" Sept 3, 2009 online] </ref>  Wasserman concludes that a major shift has been underway among "angry white seniors" (over age 60), who strongly dislike the Obama health care proposals because they fear they will lose benefits they now have.