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Line 110: − − == Selection Bias and Proposal for an Unbiased Test == − − ===Selection bias=== − <p>The easiest way to see this is the history of your finds: You have repeatedly achieved what you call a <i>perfect layer</i> (1-2-4-8) of new conservative words, i.e. 1 word of the 17th century, 2 of the 18th century, 4 of the 19th century and 8 of the 20th century.</p> − − <p>What's the probability to get a <i>perfect layer</i>? Here are the probabilities for the century of origin of a random conservative words, assuming that your insight is correct: </p> − − − <table><tr><th>Century</th><th>Probability</th></tr><tr><td>17th</td><td>1/15</td></tr><tr><td>18th</td><td>2/15</td></tr><tr><td>19th</td><td>4/15</td></tr><tr><td>20th</td><td>8/15</td></tr></table> − − <p>For a <i>layer</i>, we have to take 15 words. It's easy to calculate the probability that these 15 words form a <i>perfect layer</i>:</p> − − <p>15!/(8!×4!×2!×1!) × (1/15)<sup>1</sup> × (2/15)<sup>2</sup> × (4/15)<sup>4</sup> × (8/15)<sup>8</sup> = 675675 × 2<sup>34</sup> / 15<sup>15</sup> =0.0265</p> − − <p>2.65% is the probability to chose 15 words and get a <i>perfect layer</i> instead of 2-1-4-8 or 1-2-5-7... And how often was this remarkable deed performed?</p> − − <p>That you were able to repeat this process for a couple of times shows that you were actively (though not necessarily consciously) looking for words to match your pattern, i.e., you showed a selection bias - a kind of affirmative action for newer words...</p> − − ===An unbiased test=== − <p>Andy, f you are interested in testing your insight, I really would like to help you. The hidden table below contains 500 words which - according to the Merriam-Webster - originated between 1600 and 2000. The list was generated by taking words of the ubuntu-dictionary at random and checking their age automatically via the site of Merriam-Webster. This was repeated until 500 feasible words were found. </p> − − <p>If you mark each conservative word with an "r" (and perhaps each liberal word with an "l"), we'll get an estimate of the percentage of conservative words - and a fairly unbiased distribution over the time.</p> − − <p>Please be aware that the distribution of this sample doesn't follow a geometric law. Here are the number of words by century of origin:</p> − <table><tr><th>Century</th><th>Number of Words</th></tr><tr><td>17th</td><td>151</td></tr><tr><td>18th</td><td>84</td></tr><tr><td>19th</td><td>161</td></tr><tr><td>20th</td><td>104</td></tr></table> − − ===Table of random words=== − {|class="collapsible collapsed" − !500 words − |- − |1 economics − 2 storeroom − 3 hunkers − 4 sufficing − 5 coffeehouses − 6 stalagmites − 7 therapy − 8 sanitation − 9 cheapskates − 10 Caesareans − 11 ringmaster − 12 acclimate − 13 penology − 14 verandah − 15 caregivers − 16 fed − 17 disengaged − 18 whitecaps − 19 dissertation − 20 consignment − 21 chainsaws − 22 speeds − 23 kinfolk − 24 caribous − 25 hobbyists − 26 coefficients − 27 protuberance − 28 morphemes − 29 Caroline − 30 millionaires − 31 recyclable − 32 wilts − 33 unreconstructed − 34 chandeliers − 35 palomino − 36 joysticks − 37 volleys − 38 cajoling − 39 bucksaws − 40 spars − 41 portaged − 42 acoustically − 43 humanize − 44 hybridize − 45 tipsters − 46 overprices − 47 marksmanship − 48 fezes − 49 depressant − 50 auctioned − 51 flamethrower − 52 biking − 53 artistic − 54 agribusiness − 55 jottings − 56 pedicures − 57 Cordilleras − 58 slots − 59 recording − 60 unrealistic − 61 rationalism − 62 peacekeeping − 63 aromatherapy − 64 jackknife − 65 champagne − 66 horrendous − 67 Quasimodo − 68 excavator − 69 chowders − 70 arts − 71 configure − 72 civic − 73 telegraphy − 74 sweepstakes − 75 euphoric − 76 strategy − 77 subgroup − 78 shouting − 79 gusher − 80 telemarketing − 81 glucose − 82 booties − 83 preponderated − 84 manures − 85 outspokenness − 86 wiener − 87 embeds − 88 amped − 89 sternums − 90 empathy − 91 cognomina − 92 colitis − 93 kimono − 94 retched − 95 singletons − 96 megaphoned − 97 respelled − 98 Hindus − 99 squiggle − 100 irrigates − 101 reconstructions − 102 deceptiveness − 103 colonialism − 104 missioned − 105 dyes − 106 maladroit − 107 tents − 108 turfs − 109 generalization − 110 seamanship − 111 duffers − 112 scruffier − 113 pollinate − 114 bobcats − 115 achieved − 116 exerted − 117 flapjack − 118 Independence − 119 lucidity − 120 indenturing − 121 enumerable − 122 disenchanted − 123 flashback − 124 trilogies − 125 colloquially − 126 Colby − 127 killjoys − 128 lifelines − 129 hydrotherapy − 130 psychoanalysis − 131 memorializing − 132 bronchitis − 133 rink − 134 automobiles − 135 dandy − 136 schoolmarms − 137 debriefing − 138 glands − 139 oceanography − 140 jetted − 141 hurdler − 142 dependability − 143 tactician − 144 rotor − 145 liturgies − 146 quantified − 147 wests − 148 quitters − 149 ocarinas − 150 betting − 151 apathetically − 152 smoggier − 153 Xenia − 154 saris − 155 dupe − 156 voodooism − 157 optimize − 158 particularization − 159 funereally − 160 masterminding − 161 capsizes − 162 orchestrates − 163 uncivilized − 164 emphasized − 165 skyrocket − 166 plagiarist − 167 politicoes − 168 streptococci − 169 pantsuits − 170 waving − 171 decontaminates − 172 teensy − 173 taxonomy − 174 proselytizes − 175 drollness − 176 expectoration − 177 legmen − 178 modulations − 179 diploma − 180 Brandy − 181 radar − 182 pushiest − 183 drill − 184 lush − 185 temperas − 186 musicals − 187 wheal − 188 horticulture − 189 cancan − 190 jocularity − 191 caramels − 192 bipolar − 193 sophisticated − 194 injudicious − 195 emulsion − 196 ignore − 197 cannonballed − 198 swastika − 199 overachievers − 200 rubella − 201 chuckhole − 202 ersatz − 203 breeziness − 204 climaxes − 205 explosiveness − 206 empathizing − 207 jumps − 208 secularizing − 209 sequoia − 210 bibliography − 211 prettying − 212 bouldered − 213 authorship − 214 vocalizing − 215 tarpons − 216 camisoles − 217 cowpox − 218 tans − 219 breathable − 220 machines − 221 tycoon − 222 flicking − 223 squishes − 224 semiprofessional − 225 feline − 226 seedling − 227 hankie − 228 entitlement − 229 abscissa − 230 derisive − 231 romance − 232 overprice − 233 beads − 234 stipple − 235 Kitty − 236 jewelled − 237 mascaraed − 238 dissociation − 239 moments − 240 Spica − 241 quaking − 242 legislation − 243 wobbly − 244 scorches − 245 books − 246 gastrointestinal − 247 finked − 248 renegotiates − 249 flautists − 250 wrongheadedness − 251 allergenic − 252 squishiest − 253 kickoffs − 254 mecca − 255 disses − 256 woodwinds − 257 discotheques − 258 replacements − 259 tomahawks − 260 voluptuaries − 261 salon − 262 eliciting − 263 resale − 264 soporific − 265 dosage − 266 smokestacks − 267 rationalists − 268 subsumed − 269 futzes − 270 minutemen − 271 stingrays − 272 marathoner − 273 vagina − 274 propellers − 275 rooftops − 276 sensationalist − 277 bluejackets − 278 individualize − 279 hyphenating − 280 Xanthippe − 281 federated − 282 amortize − 283 airfare − 284 hyphenates − 285 syncopates − 286 sermonizing − 287 biochemistry − 288 babysat − 289 yellows − 290 riskier − 291 cassocks − 292 stated − 293 Cordoba − 294 Slinky − 295 eventfully − 296 nines − 297 blabbermouths − 298 fraternizes − 299 bucked − 300 Boolean − 301 bivalve − 302 ricochetted − 303 toys − 304 toted − 305 commissars − 306 cushioning − 307 redeploy − 308 poignancy − 309 variegating − 310 snuffbox − 311 stoplight − 312 biochemists − 313 bicycling − 314 disenfranchised − 315 nosing − 316 enlightenment − 317 knockout − 318 resurgent − 319 pediments − 320 skyscrapers − 321 treatments − 322 polio − 323 flashbulbs − 324 empower − 325 rounding − 326 pervasive − 327 humped − 328 oxymora − 329 freebie − 330 passageway − 331 barfing − 332 motorists − 333 triglycerides − 334 Mayans − 335 stopped − 336 kidnapper − 337 pensioning − 338 foreclosures − 339 Yankees − 340 manifestoing − 341 predictor − 342 Delawares − 343 librettos − 344 panoply − 345 angstroms − 346 jodhpurs − 347 backpedal − 348 sugars − 349 preclude − 350 unravelling − 351 Lilliput − 352 motivator − 353 enslavement − 354 pencilling − 355 flukey − 356 amoral − 357 depository − 358 unemotional − 359 stumpy − 360 cartons − 361 gal − 362 ignitions − 363 malingered − 364 spotlighted − 365 photographic − 366 abnegated − 367 dashing − 368 atrocious − 369 inanities − 370 derricks − 371 mountaineer − 372 inseminate − 373 sacrosanct − 374 modernize − 375 specializations − 376 obliging − 377 heckles − 378 baccalaureates − 379 bluebirds − 380 lengthiest − 381 octets − 382 physiotherapist − 383 disorganizing − 384 toffees − 385 unfurling − 386 abnegate − 387 bathrobe − 388 socked − 389 crepe − 390 polkas − 391 overwriting − 392 punned − 393 platoons − 394 infrared − 395 ensuring − 396 decimate − 397 baggiest − 398 plungers − 399 trampolining − 400 centigram − 401 Topsy − 402 epochal − 403 boogies − 404 showrooms − 405 pianofortes − 406 Orphic − 407 logbooks − 408 amphibious − 409 rapprochements − 410 terms − 411 Kalmyk − 412 petering − 413 geocentric − 414 stills − 415 ethnologist − 416 exec − 417 flairs − 418 likableness − 419 rods − 420 melange − 421 graduated − 422 ante − 423 voluminously − 424 impaled − 425 cognacs − 426 yups − 427 comfiest − 428 strychnine − 429 subsoiled − 430 conics − 431 Salish − 432 windsocks − 433 rutabaga − 434 vacuumed − 435 maestri − 436 podiatrist − 437 restructured − 438 metrically − 439 motorcade − 440 zipping − 441 unmoral − 442 electioneered − 443 minibikes − 444 trillion − 445 sudsier − 446 actuator − 447 acing − 448 masochism − 449 softeners − 450 cocksucker − 451 brig − 452 verbs − 453 buccaneer − 454 confessed − 455 filibustered − 456 rearmed − 457 melodramatics − 458 swivelled − 459 veggies − 460 monochrome − 461 hellos − 462 escalators − 463 Seyfert − 464 bushwhack − 465 encapsulation − 466 combining − 467 realists − 468 playgrounds − 469 teenage − 470 glandular − 471 tot − 472 cyclical − 473 tinsmith − 474 commitment − 475 undersells − 476 orthopaedics − 477 yardstick − 478 Vivian − 479 peppy − 480 swatted − 481 earlobes − 482 snapshots − 483 nitpicker − 484 unities − 485 depressants − 486 briefing − 487 halo − 488 watermarking − 489 electronics − 490 inadequates − 491 ghosted − 492 rapscallions − 493 snorkeler − 494 percentages − 495 relapsing − 496 facet − 497 inconsistently − 498 takeout − 499 acidify − 500 password − |} − [[User:RonLar|RonLar]] 09:15, 25 July 2010 (EDT)
Talk:Essay:Best New Conservative Words (view source)
Revision as of 13:53, July 25, 2010
, 13:53, July 25, 2010Undo revision 797454 by RonLar (Talk) undoing trolling. what a diatribe...
What does everyone else think about ''militant atheist''? I had to listen to someone rail at me for being a Christian on the train this morning '''for an hour''' and it got me thinking. I've been hearing the term since I was a kid, but that would probably fall into the 20th century. William Ayers anyone? My argument in favor is that most of them try to pass themselves off as peaceful, tolerant, etc, when (only my opinion here) that isn't really the case. We should call it as we see it here. I can't provide a year, but maybe someone with more experience can? What do you think? [[User:Tzoran|Tyler Zoran]] <sup>[[User talk:Tzoran|Talk]]</sup> 13:23, 20 July 2010 (EDT)
What does everyone else think about ''militant atheist''? I had to listen to someone rail at me for being a Christian on the train this morning '''for an hour''' and it got me thinking. I've been hearing the term since I was a kid, but that would probably fall into the 20th century. William Ayers anyone? My argument in favor is that most of them try to pass themselves off as peaceful, tolerant, etc, when (only my opinion here) that isn't really the case. We should call it as we see it here. I can't provide a year, but maybe someone with more experience can? What do you think? [[User:Tzoran|Tyler Zoran]] <sup>[[User talk:Tzoran|Talk]]</sup> 13:23, 20 July 2010 (EDT)