Changes

Democratic loses could be attributed to public rejection of the socialistic policies of the [[Obama administration]]. The public disapproved of [[President Obama]]'s economic policies. In the days leading up to the election, a majority of voters supported repealing/replacing [[Obamacare|The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act]], sixty-five percent of voters said that the [[economic stimulus package]] either hurt the economy or did no good <ref>http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20021591-503544.html</ref>, and fifty-four percent of those voting said they were dissatisfied with the performance of [[Barack Obama]]. Given the high level of Democratic success in the 2006 and 2008 elections, they were also put in the position of having to defend a large number of seats.

Democratic loses could be attributed to public rejection of the socialistic policies of the [[Obama administration]]. The public disapproved of [[President Obama]]'s economic policies. In the days leading up to the election, a majority of voters supported repealing/replacing [[Obamacare|The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act]], sixty-five percent of voters said that the [[economic stimulus package]] either hurt the economy or did no good <ref>http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20021591-503544.html</ref>, and fifty-four percent of those voting said they were dissatisfied with the performance of [[Barack Obama]]. Given the high level of Democratic success in the 2006 and 2008 elections, they were also put in the position of having to defend a large number of seats.

It is likely that [[John Boehner]] (R-Ohio), will become [[Speaker of the House]] in the 112th Congress, exchanging places with [[Nancy Pelosi]] (D-California).  By tradition Pelosi would be expected to resign her leadership position after such a stunning repudiation by the electorate, but as a self-centered [[liberal]] she insists on becoming the next Minority Leader.  

[[John Boehner]] (R-Ohio), will become [[Speaker of the House]] in the 112th Congress, exchanging places with [[Nancy Pelosi]] (D-California).  By tradition Pelosi would be expected to resign her leadership position after such a stunning repudiation by the electorate, but as a self-centered [[liberal]] she insists on becoming the next Minority Leader.  

 

===2009 elections===

===2009 elections===

In the Nov. 3, 2009, off-year elections, defeat was the fate of Democrats in [[New York City]], [[New Jersey]] and [[Virginia]]. Mayor [[Michael Bloomberg]], an independent, spent his way to a third term in New York City while Republican [[Bob McDonnell]] won in a landslide for governor of Virginia; in New Jersey Republican [[Christopher Christie]] ousted the incumbent Democrat [[Jon Corzine]] despite his millions and Obama's campaigning.

In the Nov. 3, 2009, off-year elections, defeat was the fate of Democrats in [[New York City]], [[New Jersey]] and [[Virginia]]. Mayor [[Michael Bloomberg]], an independent, spent his way to a third term in New York City while Republican [[Bob McDonnell]] won in a landslide for governor of Virginia; in New Jersey Republican [[Christopher Christie]] ousted the incumbent Democrat [[Jon Corzine]] despite his millions and Obama's campaigning.

Conservatives scored a major internal party victory in Oct. 2009 by forcing the Republican candidate [[Dede Scozzafava]] out of a House race in New York's 23rd district, for being too liberal. The Conservative Party candidate was defeated by the Democrat, however, opening up recriminations between GOP officials and conservatives on why the district was lost for the first time in a century. Already, conservative activists have zeroed in on the 2010 race for Florida's open Senate seat, in which the Republican party Senate campaign committee has endorsed moderate Gov. [[Charlie Crist]] but the more conservative [[Marco Rubio]] is mounting a strong challenge. "If I were Charlie Crist in Florida, what's happening in New York 23 would make me extremely nervous," GOP strategist Todd Harris said. "A lot of the establishment Republicans underestimated the grass-roots anger across the country about spending and the expansion of the federal government. The anger is boiling over now, but a lot of the seeds of discontent were planted over the last five to six years."<ref>Karl Vick and Philip Rucker, [http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/10/31/AR2009103102219.html "In a war within GOP, the right wins a battle," ''Washington Post'' Nov. 1, 2009]</ref>

Conservatives scored a major internal party victory in Oct. 2009 by forcing the Republican candidate [[Dede Scozzafava]] out of a House race in New York's 23rd district, for being too liberal. The Conservative Party candidate was defeated by the Democrat, however, opening up recriminations between GOP officials and conservatives on why the district was lost for the first time since 1992. Conservative activists zeroed in on the 2010 race for Florida's open Senate seat, in which the Republican party Senate campaign committee endorsed moderate Gov. [[Charlie Crist]] but the more conservative [[Marco Rubio]] mounted a successful challenge. "If I were Charlie Crist in Florida, what's happening in New York 23 would make me extremely nervous," GOP strategist Todd Harris said. "A lot of the establishment Republicans underestimated the grass-roots anger across the country about spending and the expansion of the federal government. The anger is boiling over now, but a lot of the seeds of discontent were planted over the last five to six years."<ref>Karl Vick and Philip Rucker, [http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/10/31/AR2009103102219.html "In a war within GOP, the right wins a battle," ''Washington Post'' Nov. 1, 2009]</ref>

===Ad campaigns===

===Ad campaigns===

Jacob Sullum, Reason.com, October 13, 2010.</ref>}}

Jacob Sullum, Reason.com, October 13, 2010.</ref>}}

==Forecasts==

==Pre-election Forecasts==

In recent years, as the chart shows, the incumbent party loses an average of 16 House seats.  The GOP needs 40 seats to win back the House. [[File:Midterm.jpg|thumb|390px]]

In recent years, as the chart shows, the incumbent party loses an average of 16 House seats.  The GOP needed 39 seats to win back the House. [[File:Midterm.jpg|thumb|390px]]

Democrats must defend about 60 marginal House seats in 2010, as opposed to about 40 for Republicans. At high risk are 27 Democratic seats and just 13 Republican seats that may see a party switch.

Democrats had to defend about 60 marginal House seats in 2010, as opposed to about 40 for Republicans. At high risk were 27 Democratic seats and just 13 Republican seats that may see a party switch.

Election forecasters in September 2009 were revising their predictions downward for the Democrats, as Obama's popularity continues to plunge. From April to August, Obama lost 10 points across the board--suffering losses in every group except blacks, who remain loyal to him.<ref> For details see [http://pewresearch.org/assets/pdf/1333.pdf Pew Report, Sept. 2009]</ref> The popularity of Congress remains low. Starting in January 2010 the number of Americans who identify themselves as Democrats was at a seven year low. <ref>http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/partisan_trends</ref>The Republican party, however, suffers from a lack of leaders and its own poor reputation in voter esteem.

Election forecasters in September 2009 were revising their predictions downward for the Democrats, as Obama's popularity continues to plunge. From April to August, Obama lost 10 points across the board--suffering losses in every group except blacks, who remain loyal to him.<ref> For details see [http://pewresearch.org/assets/pdf/1333.pdf Pew Report, Sept. 2009]</ref> The popularity of Congress remains low. Starting in January 2010 the number of Americans who identify themselves as Democrats was at a seven year low. <ref>http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/partisan_trends</ref>The Republican party, however, suffers from a lack of leaders and its own poor reputation in voter esteem.