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Talk:Counterexamples to an Old Earth (view source)
Revision as of 23:10, June 17, 2011
, 23:10, June 17, 2011no edit summary
(unindent)Brad, perhaps some graphs will help. [http://static.inky.ws/image/400/image.jpg this graph] shows liberalism (in red) increasing linearly, conservatism (in green) increasing quadratically. The point is that when we talk about liberalism or conservatism 'increasing', it means the strength and persuasiveness of the ideas; that's how both can be increasing at once. The scope and magnitude of the policies demanded by liberals increases, as does the strength and coherence of the conservative alternative. In the marketplace of ideas, the stronger ideas win out in the long run, so on average the number of adherents of either side will be in the same proportion as the relative strengths of the ideas. I hope that's clear... [http://static.inky.ws/image/401/image.jpg This graph] shows the effect of the previous graph on numbers. Obviously these are just demonstrations of general trends, but it does show how these two effects can be reconciled. In fact, I think the graphs are rather interesting. [[User:Jcw|Jcw]] 18:49, 17 June 2011 (EDT)
(unindent)Brad, perhaps some graphs will help. [http://static.inky.ws/image/400/image.jpg this graph] shows liberalism (in red) increasing linearly, conservatism (in green) increasing quadratically. The point is that when we talk about liberalism or conservatism 'increasing', it means the strength and persuasiveness of the ideas; that's how both can be increasing at once. The scope and magnitude of the policies demanded by liberals increases, as does the strength and coherence of the conservative alternative. In the marketplace of ideas, the stronger ideas win out in the long run, so on average the number of adherents of either side will be in the same proportion as the relative strengths of the ideas. I hope that's clear... [http://static.inky.ws/image/401/image.jpg This graph] shows the effect of the previous graph on numbers. Obviously these are just demonstrations of general trends, but it does show how these two effects can be reconciled. In fact, I think the graphs are rather interesting. [[User:Jcw|Jcw]] 18:49, 17 June 2011 (EDT)
:Thanks, Jcw, the graphs do make it a bit more easy to understand and to digest, although it's a complex matter and I am not sure I grasp it completely still. What do the numbers in the graphs stand for, exactly? Thanks for taking the time to try to explain this, I am feeling really dense now :) --[[User:LeonardO|Leo-from-UK]] 18:55, 17 June 2011 (EDT)
:Thanks, Jcw, the graphs do make it a bit more easy to understand and to digest, although it's a complex matter and I am not sure I grasp it completely still. What do the numbers in the graphs stand for, exactly? Thanks for taking the time to try to explain this, I am feeling really dense now :) --[[User:LeonardO|Leo-from-UK]] 18:55, 17 June 2011 (EDT)
::No problem Leonard. Here's how I interpret it; others may well disagree. As Andy observes, the rate at which new conservative ideas are produced and refined is increasing rapidly. Andy's original observation was of an exponential increase, but I think that's an artifact of the measurement - if you look at the top right part of the green line on the first graph, it looks exponential in that region, but taken as a whole it's a quadratic curve. Likewise, Andy's observation of words since 1600 shows exponential growth, but graphing exponential growth over several thousand years shows that it can't be that fast over the whole period. It has also been observed that liberalism is on the increase. In both cases, what we're talking about is - in my opinion - the relative strength of the two world-views. As humanity develops, ideas are tested against each other, old ideas are tested against new ideas and so on, with the better ideas surviving in the long run. The previous observations about growth of conservatism and liberalism can be reconciled on that assumption; the two sides are both developing their ideas and improving them. Thus the first graph shows how conservative ideas develop faster than liberal ones - liberals merely add more ideas linearly, while conservatives can combine new with old productively, so each year the increase is greater than the year before.
::The second graph shows (again, hypothetical) numbers of conservatively or liberally inclined people, based on the previous graph - the number of adherents of each view is assumed to be proportional to the ratio of the numbers in the previous graph. Again, it's all just a demonstration rather than an assertion about the details of actual politics, but hopefully it illustrates what we're talking about here. [[User:Jcw|Jcw]] 19:10, 17 June 2011 (EDT)