*Gerrymandering and voter distribution. There are House seats that are totally safe for Democrats, and some totally safe for Republicans. Charles Rangel’s seat is a perfect example of one the Democrats will not lose for the foreseeable future. With no fear of losing in an election, you only fear is base. There are lots of Republican candidates that could never lose to a Democrat, but could be ousted by the Tea Party. They therefore have to appeal to the Tea Party and not the centrist voter. Same idea with the Democrats. Now, a certain number of these safe seats occur naturally. Cities will tend to be highly Democratic while certain rural areas will always go Republican. Politicians increase the number of these seats through Gerrymandering. It is in a Democrat's best interest to have conservative areas of his district removed and liberal sections added. It is in a Republican’s best interest to go along with it - because his seat becomes safer as well. The Senate is different. You can’t Gerrymander a Senate seat and the laws of probability will give you a much tighter race that is decided by independent voters and not the base. Senators therefore need to appeal to the independent voter over the base. Just look at the last election. The Republicans were supposed to win in Nevada, Delaware and Alaska. In all three cases the candidates focused more on the base than the independent voter and lost. | *Gerrymandering and voter distribution. There are House seats that are totally safe for Democrats, and some totally safe for Republicans. Charles Rangel’s seat is a perfect example of one the Democrats will not lose for the foreseeable future. With no fear of losing in an election, you only fear is base. There are lots of Republican candidates that could never lose to a Democrat, but could be ousted by the Tea Party. They therefore have to appeal to the Tea Party and not the centrist voter. Same idea with the Democrats. Now, a certain number of these safe seats occur naturally. Cities will tend to be highly Democratic while certain rural areas will always go Republican. Politicians increase the number of these seats through Gerrymandering. It is in a Democrat's best interest to have conservative areas of his district removed and liberal sections added. It is in a Republican’s best interest to go along with it - because his seat becomes safer as well. The Senate is different. You can’t Gerrymander a Senate seat and the laws of probability will give you a much tighter race that is decided by independent voters and not the base. Senators therefore need to appeal to the independent voter over the base. Just look at the last election. The Republicans were supposed to win in Nevada, Delaware and Alaska. In all three cases the candidates focused more on the base than the independent voter and lost. |