Changes

''This article is about '''United States Presidential Election 2012'''. For other Presidential Election 2012, see [[Presidential Election 2012 (disambiguation)]].''

''This article is about the '''United States Presidential Election 2012'''. See [[Presidential Election 2012 (disambiguation)]]'' for presidential elections in other countries.

'''''The next presidential debate is on Sept. 22, 2011, in [[Florida]]'''''.

'''''The next presidential debate is on October 11, 2011, in [[New Hampshire]]'''''.

For the Republican nomination, the leaders are [[Mitt Romney]] (likely to win [[New Hampshire]]), [[Michele Bachmann]] (likely to win [[Iowa]]), and [[Rick Perry]] (likely to win the South).<ref>The order of the early primaries is not yet finally determined as of the end of 2010.  For estimated dates, see http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/events.phtml?s=c</ref>  Neither seem to have broad enough support to win the nomination.  [[Ron Paul]] has a solid base of about 10% and his ideas are being adopted by other candidates.  Additional candidates (perhaps [[Jeb Bush]]?) are possible.

 

For the Republican nomination, the leaders are [[Mitt Romney]] (likely to win [[New Hampshire]]) and [[Rick Perry]] (likely to win the South).<ref>The order of the early primaries is not yet finally determined.  For estimated dates, see http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/events.phtml?s=c</ref>  Neither seems to have broad enough support to win the nomination.  [[Ron Paul]] has a solid base of about 10% and his ideas are being adopted by other candidates.  Additional candidates (perhaps [[Jeb Bush]] or [[Chris Christie]]?) are possible.

__NOTOC__

__NOTOC__

== Ranking of Potential Republican Candidates by Likelihood of Winning Nomination ==

== Ranking of Potential Republican Candidates by Likelihood of Winning Nomination ==

|First runner-up in 2008, business experience, Republican governor of a Democratic state, cut taxes and the deficit, prodigious fundraiser and tireless campaigner, polling at 40% in the key early primary state of [[New Hampshire]], credited for helping [[Scott Brown]] win an upset victory for the seat long held by [[Ted Kennedy]].  Likely to be endorsed by [[Chris Christie]], [[Marsha Blackburn]], [[Jim Talent]], etc.  Only 26% of voters said they would '''''never''''' vote for him, which is the lowest negative of any major Republican candidate.<ref name="Quinnipiac">http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1295.xml?ReleaseID=1595</ref> Out with a new jobs plan.

|First runner-up in 2008, business experience, Republican governor of a Democratic state, cut taxes and the deficit, prodigious fundraiser and tireless campaigner, polling at 40% in the key early primary state of [[New Hampshire]], credited for helping [[Scott Brown]] win an upset victory for the seat long held by [[Ted Kennedy]].  Likely to be endorsed by [[Chris Christie]], [[Marsha Blackburn]], [[Jim Talent]], etc.  Only 26% of voters said they would '''''never''''' vote for him, which is the lowest negative of any major Republican candidate.<ref name="Quinnipiac">http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1295.xml?ReleaseID=1595</ref> Out with a new jobs plan.

|Refuses to sign the same [[pro-life]] pledge that all other major [[Republican]] candidates signed;<ref>http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0611/57256.html</ref> continues to believe in [[liberal]] propaganda claiming [[global warming]]; Romney once supported [[abortion]] and [[civil unions]], criticized by the [[Tea Party Express]] chairwoman and others due to his [[ObamaCare]]-like health plan in [[Massachusetts]], which featured "the mandate" and taxpayer-funded abortion; struggles in Iowa and won only 15% in the South Carolina primary in 2008.

|Refuses to sign the same [[pro-life]] pledge that all other major [[Republican]] candidates signed;<ref>http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0611/57256.html</ref> continues to believe in [[liberal]] propaganda claiming [[global warming]]; Romney once supported [[abortion]] and [[civil unions]], criticized by the [[Tea Party Express]] chairwoman and others due to his [[ObamaCare]]-like health plan in [[Massachusetts]], which featured "the mandate" and taxpayer-funded abortion; struggles in Iowa and won only 15% in the South Carolina primary in 2008.

|Doubts are growing that someone as weak as Romney on pro-life can win the nomination.  He is losing ground despite winning his first debate, and finished only 5th in the straw poll at the Republican Leadership Conference; disappointed pro-lifers by failing to take a pro-life pledge. He did win the Florida debate against Perry, however.

|Doubts are growing that someone as weak as Romney on pro-life can win the nomination.  He has lost ground despite winning his first debate, and finished only 5th in the straw poll at the Republican Leadership Conference; disappointed pro-lifers by failing to take a pro-life pledge. He did win the two Florida debates against Perry, however.

|-

|-

|[[Jeb Bush]]

|[[Jeb Bush]]

|A [[movement conservative]] who "knocked the ball out of the park" with her nationally televised response to Obama's [[State of the Union]] address in January 2011, Bachmann is popular with the [[Tea Party movement]]; she is a strong fundraiser and won a stunning 52-40% landslide in 2010 in a liberal-leaning district in [[Minnesota]].  Did very well at [[CPAC]] in Feb. 2011. Bachmann's beliefs are similar to [[Ron Paul]]'s, but she is more of a conservative than libertarian, and is trying to appeal to Ron Paul's fanbase<ref>http://www.lewrockwell.com/politicaltheatre/2011/06/dont-read-that-dangerous-mises/</ref>, thus a Bachmann candidacy could unite Tea Party conservatives.

|A [[movement conservative]] who "knocked the ball out of the park" with her nationally televised response to Obama's [[State of the Union]] address in January 2011, Bachmann is popular with the [[Tea Party movement]]; she is a strong fundraiser and won a stunning 52-40% landslide in 2010 in a liberal-leaning district in [[Minnesota]].  Did very well at [[CPAC]] in Feb. 2011. Bachmann's beliefs are similar to [[Ron Paul]]'s, but she is more of a conservative than libertarian, and is trying to appeal to Ron Paul's fanbase<ref>http://www.lewrockwell.com/politicaltheatre/2011/06/dont-read-that-dangerous-mises/</ref>, thus a Bachmann candidacy could unite Tea Party conservatives.

|As with [[Ronald Reagan]], [[liberal bias]] is at its worst against her; has never won statewide office; [[Ron Paul]] did not support her for a House leadership position and did not join her [[Tea Party]] caucus.

|As with [[Ronald Reagan]], [[liberal bias]] is at its worst against her; has never won statewide office; [[Ron Paul]] did not support her for a House leadership position and did not join her [[Tea Party]] caucus.

|Did extremely well in the first debate and jumped to #1 in Zogby poll of primary voters; took a sterner approach in the second and third debates, perhaps to appeal more to angry voters currently supporting [[Ron Paul]]. Won the [[Ames Straw Poll]] but was upstaged by Rick Perry's declaration of candidacy on the same day. Has slipped in the polls since Perry's entrance.

|Did extremely well in the first debate and jumped to #1 in Zogby poll of primary voters; took a sterner approach in the second and third debates, perhaps to appeal more to angry voters currently supporting [[Ron Paul]]. Won the [[Ames Straw Poll]] but was upstaged by Rick Perry's declaration of candidacy on the same day. Has slipped badly in the polls since Perry's entrance.

|-

|-

|[[Ron Paul]]

|[[Ron Paul]]

|[[Herman Cain]]

|[[Herman Cain]]

|Former successful Godfathers Pizza CEO, conservative radio host, Tea Party favorite, tremendous speaker, triumphed over a health problem, is making himself known, won a stunning landslide victory in the Florida [[straw poll]] on September 24.

|Former successful Godfathers Pizza CEO, conservative radio host, Tea Party favorite, tremendous speaker, triumphed over a health problem, is making himself known, won a stunning landslide victory in the Florida [[straw poll]] on September 24.

|Still not very well known by people but is getting more recognition.  

|Still not very well known nationally but is getting more recognition.  

|Improving in his ranking

|Improving in his ranking

|-

|-

|Outspoken supporter of conservative values as a senator, well-received by Iowan evangelicals at campaign-like event in March 2010, strongly socially conservative.

|Outspoken supporter of conservative values as a senator, well-received by Iowan evangelicals at campaign-like event in March 2010, strongly socially conservative.

|His all-out support of [[RINO]] and now-Democrat [[Arlen Specter]] prevented [[Pat Toomey]] from defeating him in 2002, although he has regretted it at CPAC 2010; could simply be a [[stalking horse]] for Romney, who he endorsed in 2008.

|His all-out support of [[RINO]] and now-Democrat [[Arlen Specter]] prevented [[Pat Toomey]] from defeating him in 2002, although he has regretted it at CPAC 2010; could simply be a [[stalking horse]] for Romney, who he endorsed in 2008.

|Was fabulous in the Iowa debate August 10th, and has won praise for his performance in more recent debates, but has been unable to climb in the polls

|Was fabulous in the Iowa debate August 10th, and has won praise for his performance in more recent debates, but has been slow to climb in the polls

|-

|-

|[[Jon Huntsman, Jr.]]

|[[Jon Huntsman, Jr.]]

|Leads [[Barack Obama]] in Zogby's polling (January 2011), takes on the [[public school]] teachers' unions and is a fiscal reformer who puts liberals in their place, has an unscripted style and appearance that is a refreshing alternative to the Teleprompter President.

|Leads [[Barack Obama]] in Zogby's polling (January 2011), takes on the [[public school]] teachers' unions and is a fiscal reformer who puts liberals in their place, has an unscripted style and appearance that is a refreshing alternative to the Teleprompter President.

|Significantly overweight, Picked a [[pro-abortion]] running mate when he ran for governor, and has little experience with national issues; repeatedly says he is not running; campaigned for [[RINO]] [[Mike Castle]] in [[Delaware]] who was then defeated; neither added [[New Jersey]] to one of the lawsuits against [[ObamaCare]] nor joined an [[amicus brief]] against it; ''will probably support [[Mitt Romney]]''.

|Significantly overweight, Picked a [[pro-abortion]] running mate when he ran for governor, and has little experience with national issues; repeatedly says he is not running; campaigned for [[RINO]] [[Mike Castle]] in [[Delaware]] who was then defeated; neither added [[New Jersey]] to one of the lawsuits against [[ObamaCare]] nor joined an [[amicus brief]] against it; ''will probably support [[Mitt Romney]]''.

|Attaining budget cuts, particularly to [[Planned Parenthood]], Christie has become the leading contender for Vice President

|Attaining budget cuts, particularly to [[Planned Parenthood]], Christie has become a leading contender for Vice President

|-

|-

|[[Marco Rubio]]

|[[Marco Rubio]]