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The '''Presidential Election 2012''' is on Tuesday, November 6, 2012.  No incumbent has won reelection in the past 70 years with unemployment above 7.2%; unemployment is at about 9% less than 12 months before the election.  [[Barack Obama]] also cannot win reelection unless he carries [[Florida]], where he has a high disapproval rating; he is likewise polling poorly in the key swing states of [[Ohio]], [[Virginia]] and [[North Carolina]].

The '''Presidential Election 2012''' is on Tuesday, November 6, 2012.  No incumbent has won reelection in the past 70 years with unemployment above 7.2%; unemployment is at about 9% less than 12 months before the election.  [[Barack Obama]] also cannot win reelection unless he carries [[Florida]], where he has a high disapproval rating; he is likewise polling poorly in the key swing states of [[Ohio]], [[Virginia]] and [[North Carolina]].

For the Republican nomination, it is becoming a two-man race between [[Newt Gingrich]] and [[Mitt Romney]].<ref>For the dates of early primaries, see http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/events.phtml?s=c</ref>  For primaries held before April 1, 2012, delegates will be awarded based on proportionality of the votes, except for Florida, which will be winner-take-all. Beginning on April 1, the traditional winner-take-all system prevails for every primary, making it easier then for a candidate to win big.  ''Conservapedia'' ranks Newt as most likely to win because of expected [[Endorsements 2012]] and how the [[Fox News Channel]] favors him.

For the Republican nomination, it is becoming a two-man race between [[Newt Gingrich]] and [[Mitt Romney]].<ref>For the dates of early primaries, see http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/events.phtml?s=c</ref>  About 1,214 delegates needed to win the nomination, and for primaries held before April 1, 2012, delegates will be awarded based on proportionality of the votes (except for Florida, which will be winner-take-all).<ref>Beginning on April 1, the traditional winner-take-all system prevails for every primary, making it easier then for a candidate to win big.</ref> ''Conservapedia'' ranks Newt as most likely to win because of expected [[Endorsements 2012]] and how the [[Fox News Channel]] favors him.

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== Ranking of Potential Republican Candidates by Likelihood of Winning Nomination ==

== Ranking of Potential Republican Candidates by Likelihood of Winning Nomination ==