| | The '''Presidential Election 2012''' is on Tuesday, November 6, 2012. No incumbent has won reelection in the past 70 years with unemployment above 7.2%; reported unemployment is nearly 9% (and real unemployment much higher) less than 12 months before the election. [[Barack Obama]] also cannot win reelection unless he carries [[Florida]], where he has a high disapproval rating; he is likewise polling poorly in the key swing states of [[Ohio]], [[Virginia]] and [[North Carolina]]. | | The '''Presidential Election 2012''' is on Tuesday, November 6, 2012. No incumbent has won reelection in the past 70 years with unemployment above 7.2%; reported unemployment is nearly 9% (and real unemployment much higher) less than 12 months before the election. [[Barack Obama]] also cannot win reelection unless he carries [[Florida]], where he has a high disapproval rating; he is likewise polling poorly in the key swing states of [[Ohio]], [[Virginia]] and [[North Carolina]]. |
| − | For the Republican nomination, it was becoming a two-man race between [[Newt Gingrich]] and [[Mitt Romney]], but additional candidates like [[Ron Paul]] are now improving. Strong third candidates, along with the new proportional assignment of delegates for many states, increases the likelihood that no candidate will be able to win a majority before the convention.<ref>For the dates of early primaries, see http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/events.phtml?s=c</ref> About 1,214 delegates<ref>http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/republicanracelateentry/</ref> are needed to win the nomination, and for primaries held before April 1, 2012, delegates will be awarded based on the proportionality of the votes (except for Florida, which will be winner-take-all but only half its delegates will count).<ref>Beginning on April 1, the traditional winner-take-all system could be used by states, but Texas is going to be proportional anyway.</ref> ''Conservapedia'' ranks Newt as most likely to win because of expected [[Endorsements 2012]] and how the [[Fox News Channel]] favors him. | + | For the Republican nomination, in early December it became a two-man race between [[Newt Gingrich]] and [[Mitt Romney]], but the emerging support for [[Ron Paul]] in mid-December increases the likelihood that no candidate will be able to win a majority before the convention.<ref>For the dates of early primaries, see http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/events.phtml?s=c</ref> About 1,214 delegates<ref>http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/republicanracelateentry/</ref> are needed to win the nomination. Primaries held before April 1, 2012, delegates will be awarded based on the proportionality of the votes (except for Florida, which will be winner-take-all but only half its delegates will count).<ref>Beginning on April 1, the traditional winner-take-all system may be used by states, but Texas is going to be proportional anyway.</ref> ''Conservapedia'' ranks Newt as most likely to win because of expected [[Endorsements 2012]] and how the [[Fox News Channel]] favors him. |