Changes

'''''The [[Iowa caucuses]] will be held January 3, 2012; the next presidential debates are on January 7 & 8 in New Hampshire.'''''  

'''''The New Hampshire primary will be held January 10, 2012; the next presidential debates are on January 7 & 8 in New Hampshire.'''''  

The '''Presidential Election 2012''' is on Tuesday, November 6, 2012.  No incumbent has won reelection in the past 70 years with unemployment above 7.2%; reported unemployment is nearly 9% (and real unemployment much higher) less than 12 months before the election.  [[Barack Obama]] also cannot win reelection unless he carries [[Florida]], where he has a high disapproval rating; he is likewise polling poorly in the key swing states of [[Ohio]], [[Virginia]] and [[North Carolina]].

The '''Presidential Election 2012''' is on Tuesday, November 6, 2012.  No incumbent has won reelection in the past 70 years with unemployment above 7.2%; reported unemployment is nearly 9% (and real unemployment much higher) less than 12 months before the election.  [[Barack Obama]] also cannot win reelection unless he carries [[Florida]], where he has a high disapproval rating; he is likewise polling poorly in the key swing states of [[Ohio]], [[Virginia]] and [[North Carolina]].

For the Republican nomination, in early December it became a two-man race between [[Newt Gingrich]] and [[Mitt Romney]], but the emerging support for [[Ron Paul]] in mid-December increases the likelihood that no candidate will be able to win a majority before the convention.<ref>For the dates of early primaries, see http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/events.phtml?s=c</ref>  About 1,214 delegates<ref>http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/republicanracelateentry/</ref> are needed to win the nomination. Primaries held before April 1, 2012, will award delegates based on the proportionality of the votes (except for Florida, which will be winner-take-all but only half its delegates will count).<ref>Beginning on April 1, the traditional winner-take-all system may be used by states, but Texas is going to be proportional anyway.</ref>  The strength of Newt's campaign is a test of the influence of the [[neoconservative]] "[[Fox News Channel|Fox Newt Channel]]" on [[Republicans]].

For the Republican nomination, in early December it seemed to become a two-man race between [[Newt Gingrich]] and [[Mitt Romney]], but the emerging support for [[Ron Paul]] in mid-December increased the likelihood that no candidate will be able to win a majority before the convention.<ref>For the dates of early primaries, see http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/events.phtml?s=c</ref>  About 1,214 delegates<ref>http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/republicanracelateentry/</ref> are needed to win the nomination. Primaries held before April 1, 2012, will award delegates based on the proportionality of the votes (except for Florida, which will be winner-take-all but only half its delegates will count).<ref>Beginning on April 1, the traditional winner-take-all system may be used by states, but Texas is going to be proportional anyway.</ref>  The strength of Newt's campaign is a test of the influence of the [[neoconservative]] "[[Fox News Channel|Fox Newt Channel]]" on [[Republicans]].

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== Ranking by Likelihood of Winning Republican Nomination ==

== Ranking by Likelihood of Winning Republican Nomination ==

|First runner-up in 2008, business experience, Republican governor of a Democratic state, cut taxes and the deficit, prodigious fundraiser and tireless campaigner, has polled as high as 40% in the key early primary state of [[New Hampshire]], and was credited with helping [[Scott Brown]] win an upset victory for the seat long held by [[Ted Kennedy]].  Only 26% of voters said they would '''''never''''' vote for him, which is the lowest negative of any major Republican candidate.<ref name="Quinnipiac">http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1295.xml?ReleaseID=1595</ref> Has come out with a new jobs plan. Received endorsements from [[Kelly Ayotte]], [[John Thune]], [[Chris Christie]],<ref>[http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/Chris-Christie-Mitt-Romney-Endorse-GOP-Republicans-2012-131530343.html http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/Chris-Christie-Mitt-Romney-Endorse-GOP-Republicans-2012-131530343.html]</ref> [[Dan Quayle]], and South Carolina Governor [[Nikki Haley]].

|First runner-up in 2008, business experience, Republican governor of a Democratic state, cut taxes and the deficit, prodigious fundraiser and tireless campaigner, has polled as high as 40% in the key early primary state of [[New Hampshire]], and was credited with helping [[Scott Brown]] win an upset victory for the seat long held by [[Ted Kennedy]].  Only 26% of voters said they would '''''never''''' vote for him, which is the lowest negative of any major Republican candidate.<ref name="Quinnipiac">http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1295.xml?ReleaseID=1595</ref> Has come out with a new jobs plan. Received endorsements from [[Kelly Ayotte]], [[John Thune]], [[Chris Christie]],<ref>[http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/Chris-Christie-Mitt-Romney-Endorse-GOP-Republicans-2012-131530343.html http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/Chris-Christie-Mitt-Romney-Endorse-GOP-Republicans-2012-131530343.html]</ref> [[Dan Quayle]], and South Carolina Governor [[Nikki Haley]].

|Weak on the pivotal pro-life issue, and even refuses to sign the same [[pro-life]] pledge that all other major [[Republican]] candidates signed;<ref>http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0611/57256.html</ref> continues to believe in [[liberal]] propaganda claiming [[global warming]]; Romney once supported [[abortion]] and [[civil unions]]; is criticized for standing behind his [[ObamaCare]]-like health plan in [[Massachusetts]], which featured "the mandate" and taxpayer-funded abortion. Won only 15% in the South Carolina primary in 2008.  The lack of criticism of Romney by the [[lamestream media]] suggests that they want him to win so that they can defeat him in the general election.

|Weak on the pivotal pro-life issue, and even refuses to sign the same [[pro-life]] pledge that all other major [[Republican]] candidates signed;<ref>http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0611/57256.html</ref> continues to believe in [[liberal]] propaganda claiming [[global warming]]; Romney once supported [[abortion]] and [[civil unions]]; is criticized for standing behind his [[ObamaCare]]-like health plan in [[Massachusetts]], which featured "the mandate" and taxpayer-funded abortion. Won only 15% in the South Carolina primary in 2008.  The lack of criticism of Romney by the [[lamestream media]] suggests that they want him to win so that they can defeat him in the general election.

|Has failed to pick up much additional support, but remains strong in [[New Hampshire]] and [[Nevada]] and has done well in the debates so far.  Yet Romney has done poorly in straw polls, and the vast majority of [[Republican]] voters are apparently looking for an alternative.

|Has failed to pick up much additional support, but won the Iowa caucuses and remains strong in [[New Hampshire]] and [[Nevada]]. He's done well in the debates so far.  Yet Romney has done poorly in straw polls, and the vast majority of [[Republican]] voters are apparently looking for an alternative.

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|[[Jeb Bush]]

|[[Jeb Bush]]

|Has the backing of Fox News and will likely receive the endorsement of those who appear on it:  [[Sarah Palin]], [[John McCain]], [[Mike Huckabee]], [[Lindsey Graham]] (influential in [[South Carolina]]), etc.; Newt has already won the endorsement of the most influential newspaper in [[New Hampshire]] and is likely to obtain endorsement by older "right to life" groups against Mitt; as [[Speaker of the House]] in the 1990s, Gingrich had a strong record of passing [[conservative]] legislation, including welfare reform, [[DOMA]], the [[Solomon Amendment]], and even [[term limits]].  He also had the courage to shut down the government.

|Has the backing of Fox News and will likely receive the endorsement of those who appear on it:  [[Sarah Palin]], [[John McCain]], [[Mike Huckabee]], [[Lindsey Graham]] (influential in [[South Carolina]]), etc.; Newt has already won the endorsement of the most influential newspaper in [[New Hampshire]] and is likely to obtain endorsement by older "right to life" groups against Mitt; as [[Speaker of the House]] in the 1990s, Gingrich had a strong record of passing [[conservative]] legislation, including welfare reform, [[DOMA]], the [[Solomon Amendment]], and even [[term limits]].  He also had the courage to shut down the government.

|Has previously endorsed [[liberal]] ideas like "[[cap-and-trade]]" ([[global warming]] hoax) and a [[Con Con]]. Advocated a limited amnesty for illegal immigrants during the November 22 debate. Resigned as Speaker rather than follow through with the impeachment of [[Bill Clinton]]; divorced twice and married three times, most recently to a woman 23 years younger than he; has never won statewide office. Since 9/11, Newt has come to adopt more big-government and pro-regulatory [[neoconservative]] views, unlike the push for limited-government and [[deregulation]] he spearheaded during the 1990s.

|Has previously endorsed [[liberal]] ideas like "[[cap-and-trade]]" ([[global warming]] hoax) and a [[Con Con]]. Advocated a limited amnesty for illegal immigrants during the November 22 debate. Resigned as Speaker rather than follow through with the impeachment of [[Bill Clinton]]; divorced twice and married three times, most recently to a woman 23 years younger than he; has never won statewide office. Since 9/11, Newt has come to adopt more big-government and pro-regulatory [[neoconservative]] views, unlike the push for limited-government and [[deregulation]] he spearheaded during the 1990s.

|Lost the #1 spot on Dec. 24th due to his failure to qualify for the ballot in Virginia, even though he lives there and is in first place in its polling. Most polls released since early November put Newt in 1st place, but attacks from other candidates and the media have eroded his lead. His debate performances earned him a reputation as the most knowledgeable of the Republican candidates and the one most capable of winning next year's debates against Obama. His strategy of criticizing the media in the debates has been brilliant.  

|Lost the #1 spot on Dec. 24th due to his failure to qualify for the ballot in Virginia, even though he lives there and is in first place in its polling. Most polls released in November and December put Newt in 1st place, but attacks from other candidates and the media have eroded his lead. His debate performances earned him a reputation as the most knowledgeable of the Republican candidates and the one most capable of winning next year's debates against Obama. His strategy of criticizing the media in the debates has been brilliant.  

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|[[Ron Paul]]

|[[Ron Paul]]

|Terrific on economic issues, can raise the money needed to win; people may look to an anti-war Republican; Won the [[CPAC]] Poll. Appeals to many social liberals.  Runs [[pro-life]] ads while Romney says little about the issue.  Also, Obama's support in polls is lowest when Paul is his opponent.  

|Terrific on economic issues, can raise the money needed to win; people may look to an anti-war Republican; Won the [[CPAC]] Poll. Appeals to many social liberals.  Runs [[pro-life]] ads while Romney says little about the issue.  Also, Obama's support in polls is lowest when Paul is his opponent.  

|Voted twice to repeal [[DADT|Don't Ask, Don't Tell]], which the vast majority of Republican primary voters support; his age (76 in 2012) will be used against him; has never won statewide office; his views on the war on drugs and the military also alienate many Republicans. Other candidates have adopted some of his economic ideas. The media in general treats him as a non-contender despite his performance in polls.

|Voted twice to repeal [[DADT|Don't Ask, Don't Tell]], which the vast majority of Republican primary voters support; his age (76 in 2012) will be used against him; has never won statewide office; his views on the war on drugs and the military also alienate many Republicans. Other candidates have adopted some of his economic ideas. The media in general treats him as a non-contender despite his performance in polls.

|Could win a stunning upset victory in Iowa, and is the only candidate other than [[Mitt Romney]] to qualify for the ballot in Virginia; Ron Paul has won at least fifteen regional straw polls and online polls and, surprisingly, won the Values Voter Summit [[straw poll]] in a landslide in Oct. 2011.  Was the clear crowd favorite in the [[Iowa]] debate on Aug. 10. Scientific polls of Republican voters in general, however, have usually shown him running well behind Gingrich and Romney.  

|Finished a strong third in Iowa and is the only candidate other than [[Mitt Romney]] to qualify for the ballot in Virginia; Paul has won at least fifteen regional straw polls and online polls and, surprisingly, won the Values Voter Summit [[straw poll]] in a landslide in Oct. 2011.  Was the clear crowd favorite in the [[Iowa]] debate on Aug. 10. Scientific polls of Republican voters in general, however, have usually shown him running well behind Gingrich and Romney.  

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|[[Rick Perry]]

|[[Rick Perry]]

|Outspoken supporter of conservative values as a senator, well-received by Iowan evangelicals at campaign-like event in March 2010, strongly conservative across the board.

|Outspoken supporter of conservative values as a senator, well-received by Iowan evangelicals at campaign-like event in March 2010, strongly conservative across the board.

|His all-out support of [[RINO]] and now-Democrat [[Arlen Specter]] prevented [[Pat Toomey]] from defeating him in 2002, although he regretted it at CPAC 2010; endorsed Romney in 2008.

|His all-out support of [[RINO]] and now-Democrat [[Arlen Specter]] prevented [[Pat Toomey]] from defeating him in 2002, although he regretted it at CPAC 2010; endorsed Romney in 2008.

|Did amazingly well in the [[Iowa Caucuses]], is fabulous in debates and television interviews, has been near the bottom in polling in some key states (like [[South Carolina]]). Campaigned relentlessly in Iowa where he succeeded in picking up several important endorsements this fall.

|Did amazingly well in the [[Iowa Caucuses]], is fabulous in debates and television interviews, has been near the bottom in polling in some key states (like [[South Carolina]]). Campaigned relentlessly in Iowa where he succeeded in picking up several important endorsements.

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|[[Michele Bachmann]]

|[[Michele Bachmann]]

|A [[movement conservative]] who "knocked the ball out of the park" with her nationally televised response to Obama's [[State of the Union]] address in January 2011, Bachmann is popular with the [[Tea Party movement]]; she is a strong fundraiser and won a stunning 52-40% landslide in 2010 in a liberal-leaning district in [[Minnesota]].  Did very well at [[CPAC]] in Feb. 2011. Bachmann's beliefs are similar to [[Ron Paul]]'s, but she is more of a conservative than a libertarian and is trying to appeal to Ron Paul fans who agree with him on domestic matters but still want a strong military.<ref>http://www.lewrockwell.com/politicaltheatre/2011/06/dont-read-that-dangerous-mises/</ref> Thus, a Bachmann candidacy could unite Tea Party conservatives.

|A [[movement conservative]] who "knocked the ball out of the park" with her nationally televised response to Obama's [[State of the Union]] address in January 2011, Bachmann is popular with the [[Tea Party movement]]; she is a strong fundraiser and won a stunning 52-40% landslide in 2010 in a liberal-leaning district in [[Minnesota]].  Did very well at [[CPAC]] in Feb. 2011. Bachmann's beliefs are similar to [[Ron Paul]]'s, but she is more of a conservative than a libertarian and is trying to appeal to Ron Paul fans who agree with him on domestic matters but still want a strong military.<ref>http://www.lewrockwell.com/politicaltheatre/2011/06/dont-read-that-dangerous-mises/</ref> Thus, a Bachmann candidacy could unite Tea Party conservatives.

|As with [[Sarah Palin]], [[liberal bias]] is at its worst against her; has never won statewide office.

|As with [[Sarah Palin]], [[liberal bias]] is at its worst against her; has never won statewide office.

|Did extremely well in the first debate and jumped to #1 in Zogby poll of primary voters. Won the [[Ames Straw Poll]] but was upstaged by Rick Perry's declaration of candidacy on the same day. Slipped badly in the polls thereafter. Tireless campaigning and strong debate performances have earned her renewed respect but only small gains in the polls. Bachman withdrew from the race after a poor finish in Iowa.

|Did extremely well in the first debate and jumped to #1 in Zogby poll of primary voters. Won the [[Ames Straw Poll]] but was upstaged by Rick Perry's declaration of candidacy on the same day. Slipped badly in the polls thereafter. Tireless campaigning and strong debate performances earned her renewed respect but only small gains in the polls. Bachman withdrew from the race after a poor finish in Iowa.

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|[[Jon Huntsman, Jr.]]

|[[Jon Huntsman, Jr.]]