| | The '''Presidential Election 2012''' is on Tuesday, November 6, 2012. No incumbent has won reelection in the past 70 years with unemployment above 7.2%; reported unemployment is nearly 9% (and real unemployment much higher) less than 12 months before the election. [[Barack Obama]] also cannot win reelection unless he carries [[Florida]], where he has a high disapproval rating; he is likewise polling poorly in the key swing states of [[Ohio]], [[Virginia]] and [[North Carolina]]. | | The '''Presidential Election 2012''' is on Tuesday, November 6, 2012. No incumbent has won reelection in the past 70 years with unemployment above 7.2%; reported unemployment is nearly 9% (and real unemployment much higher) less than 12 months before the election. [[Barack Obama]] also cannot win reelection unless he carries [[Florida]], where he has a high disapproval rating; he is likewise polling poorly in the key swing states of [[Ohio]], [[Virginia]] and [[North Carolina]]. |
| − | It is virtually impossible for a candidate to win a majority of delegates before June 2012, and no candidate has been able to win more than 50% of a primary. Increasingly the race is a two-man contest between [[Newt Gingrich]] and [[Mitt Romney]]. About 1,214 delegates<ref>http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/republicanracelateentry/</ref> are needed to win the nomination. Primaries held before April 1, 2012, will award delegates based on the proportionality of the votes (except Florida seeks winner-take-all, at half the delegate count, for its primary on Jan. 31).<ref>Beginning on April 1, the traditional winner-take-all system may be used by states, but Texas will probably be proportional anyway.</ref><ref>For the dates of early primaries, see http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/events.phtml?s=c</ref> | + | It is virtually impossible for a candidate to win a majority of delegates before June 2012, and no candidate has been able to win more than 50% in a single primary. Increasingly the race is a two-man contest between [[Newt Gingrich]] and [[Mitt Romney]]. About 1,214 delegates<ref>http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/republicanracelateentry/</ref> are needed to win the nomination. Primaries held before April 1, 2012, will award delegates based on the proportionality of the votes (except Florida seeks winner-take-all, at half the delegate count, for its primary on Jan. 31).<ref>Beginning on April 1, the traditional winner-take-all system may be used by states, but Texas will probably be proportional anyway.</ref><ref>For the dates of early primaries, see http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/events.phtml?s=c</ref> |