The Sharpshooter Fallacy is a logical fallacy where patterns in random data are used to create hypothesis after the fact. The fallacy gets its name from a hypothetical `sharpshooter` who shoots randomly at a barn. Even though he is shooting randomly, chances are some spots on the barn would be hit more than others. The `sharpshooter` then goes and paints a bulls eye around one of these spots that have received a much higher than average rate of hits. The effect is that he looks like an excellent marksman because so many of his shots are in the target. | The Sharpshooter Fallacy is a logical fallacy where patterns in random data are used to create hypothesis after the fact. The fallacy gets its name from a hypothetical `sharpshooter` who shoots randomly at a barn. Even though he is shooting randomly, chances are some spots on the barn would be hit more than others. The `sharpshooter` then goes and paints a bulls eye around one of these spots that have received a much higher than average rate of hits. The effect is that he looks like an excellent marksman because so many of his shots are in the target. |