| Line 1: |
Line 1: |
| − | Currently the election is in the [[2012 Republican Primary|Republican Primary]] phase. It has yet to be decided who will run against [[Barack Hussein Obama]] in November.
| + | '''''The next primary elections are on Tuesday, February 28, in Arizona and Michigan'''''.<ref>For the primary schedule, see http://www.2012presidentialelectionnews.com/2012-republican-primary-schedule/</ref> The next (and as of now last) '''''debate''''' is scheduled for March 19<ref>[http://www.2012presidentialelectionnews.com/2012-debate-schedule/2011-2012-primary-debate-schedule/ 2012 Primary Debate Schedule]</ref>. |
| − | '''''The next primary elections are on Tuesday, February 28, in Arizona and Michigan'''''.<ref>For the primary schedule, see http://www.2012presidentialelectionnews.com/2012-republican-primary-schedule/</ref> The next (and as of now last) '''''debate''''' is scheduled for March 19<ref>[http://www.2012presidentialelectionnews.com/2012-debate-schedule/2011-2012-primary-debate-schedule/ 2012 Primary Debate Schedule]</ref>. '''''The latest delegate totals can be viewed [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/republican_delegate_count.html here]''''' - but beware of tallies that show the Florida delegates as winner-take-all when [[Republican Party]] rules prohibited that prior to April 1 and Gingrich has indicated he will challenge it. | |
| | | | |
| − | The '''Presidential Election 2012''' is on Tuesday, November 6, 2012. No incumbent has won reelection in the past 70 years with unemployment above 7.2%; reported unemployment is over 8% (and real unemployment much higher) only 9 months before the election. [[Barack Obama]] also cannot win reelection unless he carries [[Florida]], where he has a high disapproval rating; he is likewise polling poorly in the key swing states of [[Ohio]], [[Virginia]] and [[North Carolina]]. | + | The '''Presidential Election 2012''' is on Tuesday, November 6, 2012. No incumbent has won reelection in the past 70 years with unemployment above 7.2%; reported unemployment is currently over 8% (and real unemployment much higher) only 9 months before the election. [[Barack Obama]] also cannot win reelection unless he carries [[Florida]], where he has a high disapproval rating; he is likewise polling poorly in the key swing states of [[Ohio]], [[Virginia]] and [[North Carolina]]. |
| | | | |
| − | '''It is virtually impossible for a candidate to win a majority of delegates before June 2012'''. About 1,144 delegates<ref>http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/republicanracelateentry/</ref> are needed to win the nomination. Primaries held before April 1, 2012, will award delegates based on the proportionality of the votes (except Florida claimed to award winner-take-all, at half the delegate count, for its primary on Jan. 31). Beginning on April 1, the traditional winner-take-all system may be used by states, but the second biggest state, Texas (155 delegates), will be proportional, and the biggest state, California (172 delegates), will be winner-take-all by each of its 53 congressional districts.<ref>http://www.contracostatimes.com/california/ci_19843184</ref> '''Only seven primaries totalling a small number of delegates are winner-take-all'''; New York will only be winner take all if one candidate wins more than 50% of the vote.<ref>http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/DC-Decoder/2012/0131/Florida-primary-Why-it-s-one-of-the-last-few-winner-take-all-states</ref> The dates of the primaries are [http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/events.phtml?s=c here]. | + | The [[Republican Party]] is in the process of selecting its nominee, and the latest delegate totals can be viewed [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/republican_delegate_count.html here]''''' - but beware of tallies that show the Florida delegates as winner-take-all when [[Republican Party]] rules prohibited that prior to April 1 and Gingrich has indicated he will challenge it. |
| | + | |
| | + | '''It is virtually impossible for a candidate to win a majority of the Republican delegates before June 2012'''. About 1,144 delegates<ref>http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/republicanracelateentry/</ref> are needed to win the nomination. Primaries held before April 1, 2012, will award delegates based on the proportionality of the votes (except Florida claimed to award winner-take-all, at half the delegate count, for its primary on Jan. 31). Beginning on April 1, the traditional winner-take-all system may be used by states, but the second biggest state, Texas (155 delegates), will be proportional, and the biggest state, California (172 delegates), will be winner-take-all by each of its 53 congressional districts.<ref>http://www.contracostatimes.com/california/ci_19843184</ref> '''Only seven primaries totalling a small number of delegates are winner-take-all'''; New York will only be winner take all if one candidate wins more than 50% of the vote.<ref>http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/DC-Decoder/2012/0131/Florida-primary-Why-it-s-one-of-the-last-few-winner-take-all-states</ref> The dates of the primaries are [http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/events.phtml?s=c here]. |
| | __NOTOC__ | | __NOTOC__ |
| | == Ranking by Likelihood of Winning Republican Nomination == | | == Ranking by Likelihood of Winning Republican Nomination == |