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Line 34: − |- − |[[Newt Gingrich]] − |The [[pro-life]] candidate most opposed by [[liberal]]s due to his political effectiveness in accomplishing [[conservative]] goals. Newt is the only contender who stands up forcefully to liberals and to the [[lamestream media]]. His debate performances have earned him a reputation as the Republican most capable of winning debates against Obama. Newt had the early backing of Fox News before [[John McCain]] backed [[Mitt Romney]] instead, which caused Fox News to switch sides. Newt has by far the strongest record of achievements of any candidate, including passing [[conservative]] legislation that included welfare reform, [[DOMA]], the [[Solomon Amendment]], and even [[term limits]]. Newt also had the courage to shut down the government. His story of overcoming being orphaned is inspirational. Has been endorsed by conservatives such as [[Fred Thompson]], [[Rick Perry]], [[Michael Reagan]], and [[Herman Cain]]. − |His many decades in public life make him vulnerable to negative political ads. His personal life has been criticized: his first marriage was annulled, and he's been married twice since. Ron Paul is particularly critical of Newt, although many of Dr. Paul's supporters are likely to prefer Newt over Mitt Romney. − |Rousing debate performances the week of Jan. 17th in South Carolina led to a landslide victory for Gingrich in the South Carolina primary. Prior to that, his strong debate performances and the weaknesses of other rivals to Romney had already pushed Gingrich up to #2. Despite having led in most polls conducted in late 2011, he lost the #1 spot on Dec. 24th due to the toll taken by attacks from the media and other candidates and his failure to qualify for the ballot in Virginia where he lives. His strategy of criticizing the media in the debates has been brilliant. However, he carried only Georgia on Super Tuesday and lost Tennessee, Alabama, and Mississippi to Santorum. The opportunity for conservatives to rally behind Newt may have slipped away. See: [[Gingrich Administration]] for an analysis of his assumed Cabinet. Line 73:
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United States presidential election, 2012 (view source)
Revision as of 04:32, April 11, 2012
, 04:32, April 11, 2012→Ranking by Likelihood of Winning Republican Nomination: Retakes the #2 spot after Rick Santorum surprisingly quit; this was the ranking Newt had for much of 2011
|Has big weaknesses with "[[Reagan Democrats]]," making it unlikely Romney can win the general election: Romney has a pro-[[abortion]] record and favors big corporations; Romney also continues to believe in [[liberal]] propaganda claiming [[global warming]] and is criticized for standing behind his [[ObamaCare]]-like health plan in [[Massachusetts]], which featured "the mandate" and taxpayer-funded abortion. The tepid criticism of Romney by the [[lamestream media]] suggests that they want him to win so that they can defeat him in the general election.
|Has big weaknesses with "[[Reagan Democrats]]," making it unlikely Romney can win the general election: Romney has a pro-[[abortion]] record and favors big corporations; Romney also continues to believe in [[liberal]] propaganda claiming [[global warming]] and is criticized for standing behind his [[ObamaCare]]-like health plan in [[Massachusetts]], which featured "the mandate" and taxpayer-funded abortion. The tepid criticism of Romney by the [[lamestream media]] suggests that they want him to win so that they can defeat him in the general election.
|Retook the #1 position with his primary victory in [[Illinois]], despite having lost many states in the South. Romney was strong in nearly all of the 20 debates but has struggled to exceed 50% of the vote in most states.
|Retook the #1 position with his primary victory in [[Illinois]], despite having lost many states in the South. Romney was strong in nearly all of the 20 debates but has struggled to exceed 50% of the vote in most states.
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|[[Newt Gingrich]]
|The [[pro-life]] candidate most opposed by [[liberal]]s due to his political effectiveness in accomplishing [[conservative]] goals. Newt is the only contender who stands up forcefully to liberals and to the [[lamestream media]]. His debate performances have earned him a reputation as the Republican most capable of winning debates against Obama. Newt had the early backing of Fox News before [[John McCain]] backed [[Mitt Romney]] instead, which caused Fox News to switch sides. Newt has by far the strongest record of achievements of any candidate, including passing [[conservative]] legislation that included welfare reform, [[DOMA]], the [[Solomon Amendment]], and even [[term limits]]. Newt also had the courage to shut down the government. His story of overcoming being orphaned is inspirational. Has been endorsed by conservatives such as [[Fred Thompson]], [[Rick Perry]], [[Michael Reagan]], and [[Herman Cain]].
|His many decades in public life make him vulnerable to negative political ads. His personal life has been criticized: his first marriage was annulled, and he's been married twice since. Ron Paul is particularly critical of Newt, although many of Dr. Paul's supporters are likely to prefer Newt over Mitt Romney.
|Retakes the #2 spot after [[Rick Santorum]] surprisingly quit; Newt's rousing debate performances the week of Jan. 17th in South Carolina led to a landslide victory for Gingrich in the South Carolina primary. Prior to that, his strong debate performances and the weaknesses of other rivals to Romney had already pushed Gingrich up to #2. Despite having led in most polls conducted in late 2011, he lost the #1 spot on Dec. 24th due to the toll taken by attacks from the media and other candidates and his failure to qualify for the ballot in Virginia where he lives. His strategy of criticizing the media in the debates has been brilliant. However, he carried only Georgia on Super Tuesday and lost Tennessee, Alabama, and Mississippi to Santorum. The opportunity for conservatives to rally behind Newt may have slipped away. See: [[Gingrich Administration]] for an analysis of his assumed Cabinet.
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|[[Jeb Bush]]
|[[Jeb Bush]]
|Almost certainly began as a [[stalking horse]] for [[Mitt Romney]], hoping Mitt will appoint him to a government position, and may now be seeking to be Romney's VP. Rick's all-out support of [[RINO]] and now-Democrat [[Arlen Specter]] prevented [[Pat Toomey]] from defeating him in 2002, although he regretted it at CPAC 2010; Santorum endorsed Romney in 2008 rather than more conservative candidates. Santorum's tax plan has been criticized for adding even more people to the number not required to pay federal income taxes, and he's been criticized for supporting earmarks while in the Senate.
|Almost certainly began as a [[stalking horse]] for [[Mitt Romney]], hoping Mitt will appoint him to a government position, and may now be seeking to be Romney's VP. Rick's all-out support of [[RINO]] and now-Democrat [[Arlen Specter]] prevented [[Pat Toomey]] from defeating him in 2002, although he regretted it at CPAC 2010; Santorum endorsed Romney in 2008 rather than more conservative candidates. Santorum's tax plan has been criticized for adding even more people to the number not required to pay federal income taxes, and he's been criticized for supporting earmarks while in the Senate.
|Ohio Attorney General Mike DeWine, a former [[U.S. Senator]], switched his endorsement from Romney to Santorum on Feb. 17. Rick is fabulous in debates and television interviews. Won an upset victory in the [[Iowa Caucuses]], but was an also-ran in the New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida primaries before rebounding to win Missouri, Minnesota, Colorado, North Dakota, and most of the Southern states.
|Ohio Attorney General Mike DeWine, a former [[U.S. Senator]], switched his endorsement from Romney to Santorum on Feb. 17. Rick is fabulous in debates and television interviews. Won an upset victory in the [[Iowa Caucuses]], but was an also-ran in the New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida primaries before rebounding to win Missouri, Minnesota, Colorado, North Dakota, and most of the Southern states.
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|[[Sarah Palin]]
|[[Sarah Palin]]
|[[Tim Pawlenty]]
|[[Tim Pawlenty]]
|Young; popular in his home state of [[Minnesota]]; Had a surprisingly good record on immigration.
|Young; popular in his home state of [[Minnesota]]; Had a surprisingly good record on immigration.
|Still not well known outside of Minnesota; signed $893 million in meddlesome fees/taxes including a "health fee" for cigarette smokers (which was ruled unconstitutional), a harvest fee for farmers, a 9-1-1 fee on all telephone lines, a fee for traditional marriage, and large increase in parking fees;<ref>[http://tinyurl.com/3k4p8jf ''Duluth News Tribune'': Fees soar as state taxes hold steady] (2006)</ref> supported the liberal [[cap and trade]]; accepted stimulus funds after arguing against them; lacks a socially conservative base; arranged a meeting with a liberal medical society in 2003 in order to cave into the pro-[[abortion]] side by downplaying medical harm caused by abortion,<ref>http://www.lifenews.com/2003/12/30/state-281/</ref> despite hard-fought passage of the Woman's Right to Know Act mandating disclosure. Came off as drab and uncompelling. He endorsed Mitt Romney after he ended his own bid.<ref>http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/09/12/pawlenty-endorses-romney-for-president/</ref>
|Still not well known outside of Minnesota; signed $893 million in meddlesome fees/taxes including a "health fee" for cigarette smokers (which was ruled unconstitutional), a harvest fee for farmers, a 9-1-1 fee on all telephone lines, a fee for traditional marriage, and large increase in parking fees; supported the liberal [[cap and trade]]; accepted stimulus funds after arguing against them; lacks a socially conservative base; arranged a meeting with a liberal medical society in 2003 in order to cave into the pro-[[abortion]] side by downplaying medical harm caused by abortion,<ref>http://www.lifenews.com/2003/12/30/state-281/</ref> despite hard-fought passage of the Woman's Right to Know Act mandating disclosure. Came off as drab and uncompelling. He endorsed Mitt Romney after he ended his own bid.<ref>http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/09/12/pawlenty-endorses-romney-for-president/</ref>
|Lost ground after a perception of underachieving in the first debate June 13; then his criticism of Michele Bachmann seemed to backfire with her rebuttal in the second debate. Pawlenty finished third in the Iowa Straw Poll and quickly announced that he was ending his bid for the nomination.
|Lost ground after a perception of underachieving in the first debate June 13; then his criticism of Michele Bachmann seemed to backfire with her rebuttal in the second debate. Pawlenty finished third in the Iowa Straw Poll and quickly announced that he was ending his bid for the nomination.
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