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'''''The next [[GOP]] [[primary|primaries]] will be on April 24 in [[Connecticut]], [[Delaware]], [[New York]], [[Pennsylvania]], and [[Rhode Island]]'''.<ref>For the primary schedule, see http://www.2012presidentialelectionnews.com/2012-republican-primary-schedule/</ref> Currently no additional Republican debates are scheduled.<ref>[http://www.2012presidentialelectionnews.com/2012-debate-schedule/2011-2012-primary-debate-schedule/ 2012 Primary Debate Schedule]</ref>  For an analysis of the likely nominees for [[Vice President]], see [[Vice President 2012|here]].

'''''The latest [[GOP]] [[primary|primaries]] were held on April 24 in [[Connecticut]], [[Delaware]], [[New York]], [[Pennsylvania]], and [[Rhode Island]]'''.<ref>For the primary schedule, see http://www.2012presidentialelectionnews.com/2012-republican-primary-schedule/</ref> Currently no additional Republican debates are scheduled.<ref>[http://www.2012presidentialelectionnews.com/2012-debate-schedule/2011-2012-primary-debate-schedule/ 2012 Primary Debate Schedule]</ref>  For an analysis of the likely nominees for [[Vice President]], see [[Vice President 2012|here]].

The '''Presidential Election 2012''' is on Tuesday, November 6, 2012.  No incumbent has won reelection in the past 70 years with unemployment above 7.2%; reported unemployment is currently more than 8% (and real unemployment much higher) less than 7 months before the election.  [[Barack Obama]] also cannot win reelection unless he carries [[Florida]], where he has a high disapproval rating; he is likewise polling poorly in the key swing states of [[Ohio]], [[Virginia]] and [[North Carolina]].

The '''Presidential Election 2012''' is on Tuesday, November 6, 2012.  No incumbent has won reelection in the past 70 years with unemployment above 7.2%; reported unemployment is currently more than 8% (and real unemployment much higher) less than 7 months before the election.  [[Barack Obama]] also cannot win reelection unless he carries [[Florida]], where he has a high disapproval rating; he is likewise polling poorly in the key swing states of [[Ohio]], [[Virginia]] and [[North Carolina]].

The [[Republican Party]] is in the process of selecting its nominee through the [[2012 Republican Primary]]; the latest delegate totals are [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/republican_delegate_count.html here] and [http://www.politico.com/2012-election/delegate-tracker/ here]''''' - but beware of tallies that show the Florida delegates as winner-take-all when [[Republican Party]] rules prohibited that prior to April 1 and Gingrich has indicated he will challenge it, and which include uncommitted or unbound delegates.

The [[Republican Party]] is in the process of selecting its nominee through the [[2012 Republican Primary]]; the latest delegate totals are [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/republican_delegate_count.html here] and [http://www.politico.com/2012-election/delegate-tracker/ here]''''' - but beware of tallies that show the Florida delegates as winner-take-all when [[Republican Party]] rules prohibited that prior to April 1 and Gingrich has indicated he will challenge it, and which include uncommitted or unbound delegates.

'''It is virtually impossible for a candidate to win a majority of the Republican delegates before June 2012'''.  About 1,144 delegates<ref>http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/republicanracelateentry/</ref> are needed to win the nomination. Primaries held before April 1, 2012, will award delegates based on the proportionality of the votes (except Florida claimed to award winner-take-all, at half the delegate count, for its primary on Jan. 31). However, some early states are winner-take-all by Congressional district, sometimes leading to a single candidate taking a large majority of the delegates. For instance, in South Carolina, the winner of each district got 2 delegates (for a total of 14), and the winner of the state got 11. This was permissible because less than 50% of the delegates were awarded to the state winner automatically. Newt Gingrich won all but one Congressional district, as well as the state overall, earning him 23 delegates to Mitt Romney's 2.  Beginning on April 1, the traditional winner-take-all system may be used by states, but the second biggest state, Texas (155 delegates), will be proportional, and the biggest state, California (172 delegates), will be winner-take-all by each of its 53 congressional districts.<ref>http://www.contracostatimes.com/california/ci_19843184</ref>  '''Only seven primaries totalling a small number of delegates are winner-take-all'''; New York will only be winner take all if one candidate wins more than 50% of the vote.<ref>http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/DC-Decoder/2012/0131/Florida-primary-Why-it-s-one-of-the-last-few-winner-take-all-states</ref>  The dates of the primaries are [http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/events.phtml?s=c here].

About 1,144 delegates<ref>http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/republicanracelateentry/</ref> are needed to win the nomination. Primaries held before April 1, 2012, awarded delegates based on the proportionality of the votes (except Florida claimed to award winner-take-all, at half the delegate count, for its primary on Jan. 31). However, some early states are winner-take-all by Congressional district, sometimes leading to a single candidate taking a large majority of the delegates. For instance, in South Carolina, the winner of each district got 2 delegates (for a total of 14), and the winner of the state got 11. This was permissible because less than 50% of the delegates were awarded to the state winner automatically. Newt Gingrich won all but one Congressional district, as well as the state overall, earning him 23 delegates to Mitt Romney's 2.  Beginning on April 1, the traditional winner-take-all system may be used by states, but the second biggest state, Texas (155 delegates), will be proportional, and the biggest state, California (172 delegates), will be winner-take-all by each of its 53 congressional districts.<ref>http://www.contracostatimes.com/california/ci_19843184</ref>  '''Only seven primaries totalling a small number of delegates are winner-take-all'''; New York will only be winner take all if one candidate wins more than 50% of the vote.<ref>http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/DC-Decoder/2012/0131/Florida-primary-Why-it-s-one-of-the-last-few-winner-take-all-states</ref>  The dates of the primaries are [http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/events.phtml?s=c here].

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== Ranking by Likelihood of Winning Republican Nomination ==

== Ranking by Likelihood of Winning Republican Nomination ==