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United States presidential election, 2012 (view source)

Revision as of 18:43, August 5, 2012

380 bytes removed , 18:43, August 5, 2012

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|[[Mitt Romney]]

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|Would probably appoint conservative judges to the federal bench, more so than other Republicans would. Has business experience and was a Republican governor of a Democratic state who cut taxes and the deficit. Outraises [[Barack Obama]] in campaign contributions, and [[Super PAC]]s supportive of Romney are likely to spend hundreds of millions of dollars in negative ads against [[Obama]]. In the ~~primary~~ Mitt came in second in [[Iowa]], first in [[New Hampshire]], a distant second in South Carolina, first in Florida, lost three states to Santorum on February 7, but then won in [[Arizona]] and [[Michigan]] on February 28 and in six other states on Super Tuesday, March 6. Has received endorsements from moderate and liberal Republicans such as [[Bob Dole]], [[John McCain]], [[Kelly Ayotte]], [[John Thune]], [[Jon Huntsman]], [[Chris Christie]],<ref>[http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/Chris-Christie-Mitt-Romney-Endorse-GOP-Republicans-2012-131530343.html http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/Chris-Christie-Mitt-Romney-Endorse-GOP-Republicans-2012-131530343.html]</ref> [[Dan Quayle]], [[Nikki Haley]], [[Tim Pawlenty]], [[Jeb Bush]], [[Marco Rubio]], and [[George H. W. Bush]]<ref>[http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/29/its-official-elder-bush-backs-romney/ It's official, elder Bush backs Romney] New York Times 538 election blog. March, 29th 2012</ref>. Won the 2012 [[CPAC]] straw poll.

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|Would probably appoint conservative judges to the federal bench, more so than other Republicans would. Has business experience and was a Republican governor of a Democratic state who cut taxes and the deficit. Outraises [[Barack Obama]] in campaign contributions, and [[Super PAC]]s supportive of Romney are likely to spend hundreds of millions of dollars in negative ads against [[Obama]]. In the primaries Mitt came in second in [[Iowa]], first in [[New Hampshire]], a distant second in South Carolina, first in Florida, lost three states to Santorum on February 7, but then won in [[Arizona]] and [[Michigan]] on February 28 and in six other states on Super Tuesday, March 6. Has received endorsements from moderate and liberal Republicans such as [[Bob Dole]], [[John McCain]], [[Kelly Ayotte]], [[John Thune]], [[Jon Huntsman]], [[Chris Christie]],<ref>[http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/Chris-Christie-Mitt-Romney-Endorse-GOP-Republicans-2012-131530343.html http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/Chris-Christie-Mitt-Romney-Endorse-GOP-Republicans-2012-131530343.html]</ref> [[Dan Quayle]], [[Nikki Haley]], [[Tim Pawlenty]], [[Jeb Bush]], [[Marco Rubio]], and [[George H. W. Bush]]<ref>[http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/29/its-official-elder-bush-backs-romney/ It's official, elder Bush backs Romney] New York Times 538 election blog. March, 29th 2012</ref>. Won the 2012 [[CPAC]] straw poll.

|Has weaknesses with "[[Reagan Democrats]]," making it difficult for Romney to win the general election: Romney has a pro-[[abortion]] record and favors big corporations, continued to believe in [[liberal]] propaganda claiming [[global warming]] long after it was discredited, and is criticized for standing behind his [[ObamaCare]]-like health plan in [[Massachusetts]], which featured "the mandate" and taxpayer-funded abortion. The mostly tepid criticism of Romney by the [[lamestream media]] until they started forcefully attacking him after the voting officially started suggested that they wanted him to win so that they could defeat him in the general election.

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|~~On May 29, 2012, with~~ the Texas primary, Romney reportedly reached the number needed to secure the Republican nomination.

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|With his victory in the Texas primary on May 29, Romney reportedly reached the number needed to secure the Republican nomination.

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|[[Ron Paul]]

|Terrific on economic issues, can raise the money needed to win; people may look to an anti-war Republican; Won the 2011 [[CPAC]] Poll. Appeals to many social liberals. Runs [[pro-life]] ads while Romney says little about the issue. Also, Obama's support in polls is lowest when Paul is his opponent.

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|Voted twice to repeal [[DADT|Don't Ask, Don't Tell]], which the vast majority of Republican primary voters support; his age (76 in 2012) ~~will be~~ used against him; has never won statewide office; his views on the war on drugs and the military also alienate many Republicans. Other candidates have adopted some of his economic ideas. The media in general ~~treats~~ him as a non-contender despite his performance in polls and the early voting.

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|Voted twice to repeal [[DADT|Don't Ask, Don't Tell]], which the vast majority of Republican primary voters support; his age (76 in 2012) is used against him; has never won statewide office; his views on the war on drugs and the military also alienate many Republicans. Other candidates have adopted some of his economic ideas. The media in general treated him as a non-contender despite his performance in polls and the early voting.

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|Surprisingly, won the Values Voter Summit [[straw poll]] in a landslide in Oct. 2011.

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|Surprisingly, he won the Values Voter Summit [[straw poll]] in a landslide in Oct. 2011.

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Finished a strong third in Iowa's caucuses and second in New Hampshire, Maine, and Washington~~, but has been weaker in the more recent primaries~~. Won a majority of the delegates in state conventions held in Minnesota, Iowa, Maine, and Louisiana.

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Finished a strong third in Iowa's caucuses and second in New Hampshire, Maine, and Washington. Won a majority of the delegates in state conventions held in Minnesota, Iowa, Maine, and Louisiana. Has suspended his campaign without endorsing Romney.

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|[[Newt Gingrich]]

|The [[pro-life]] candidate most opposed by [[liberal]]s due to his political effectiveness in accomplishing [[conservative]] goals. Newt is the only contender who stands up forcefully to liberals and to the [[lamestream media]]. He had the early backing of Fox News before [[John McCain]] backed [[Mitt Romney]] instead, which caused Fox News to switch sides. Newt has by far the strongest record of achievements of any candidate, including passing [[conservative]] legislation that included welfare reform, [[DOMA]], the [[Solomon Amendment]], and even [[term limits]]. Newt also had the courage to shut down the government. His story of overcoming being orphaned is inspirational. Has been endorsed by conservatives such as [[Fred Thompson]], [[Rick Perry]], [[Michael Reagan]], and [[Herman Cain]].

|His many decades in public life make him vulnerable to negative political ads. His personal life has been criticized: his first marriage was annulled, and he's been married twice since. Ron Paul is particularly critical of Newt, although many of Dr. Paul's supporters are likely to prefer Newt over Mitt Romney.

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|Newt's rousing debate performances the week of Jan. 17th in South Carolina led to a landslide victory for him in the South Carolina primary. Prior to that, his strong debate performances and the weaknesses of other rivals to Romney had already pushed Gingrich up to #2. His strategy of criticizing the media in the debates ~~has been~~ brilliant. However, he carried only Georgia on Super Tuesday and lost Tennessee, Alabama, and Mississippi to Santorum. See: [[Gingrich Administration]] for an analysis of his hypothetical Cabinet. Gingrich withdrew from the race during the first week of May.

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|Newt's rousing debate performances the week of Jan. 17th in South Carolina led to a landslide victory for him in the South Carolina primary. Prior to that, his strong debate performances and the weaknesses of other rivals to Romney had already pushed Gingrich up to #2. His strategy of criticizing the media in the debates was brilliant. However, he carried only Georgia on Super Tuesday and lost Tennessee, Alabama, and Mississippi to Santorum. See: [[Gingrich Administration]] for an analysis of his hypothetical Cabinet. Gingrich withdrew from the race during the first week of May.

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|[[Jeb Bush]]

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|Jeb is the most likely to win if ~~none of the final four candidates can gain~~ a ~~majority of~~ the ~~delegates; in~~ the general election, Jeb is sure to win Florida, and Obama cannot win reelection without Florida; [[George W. Bush]]'s book sold far better than expectations, making the name an asset again; Jeb ~~could unite the Republican Party with a late candidacy;~~ is more conservative than his brother [[George W. Bush]]; Jeb has already criticized Palin as a rival candidate might;<ref>In a Newsmax interview in February 2010, Jeb criticized Palin by saying, "my belief is in 2010 and 2012, public leaders need to have intellectual curiosity." [http://www.newser.com/story/81720/jeb-bush-sarah-palin-not-intellectual-enough.html]</ref> Jeb published an editorial on Jan. 3, 2011 taking credit for saving Florida [[public schools]] with vouchers.<ref>http://www.politifact.com/florida/statements/2011/jan/03/jeb-bush/jeb-bush-touts-education-gains-wall-street-journal/</ref>

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|Jeb is the most likely to win if there were a deadlock at the national convention. In the general election, Jeb is sure to win Florida, and Obama cannot win reelection without Florida; [[George W. Bush]]'s book sold far better than expectations, making the name an asset again; Jeb is more conservative than his brother [[George W. Bush]]; Jeb has already criticized Palin as a rival candidate might;<ref>In a Newsmax interview in February 2010, Jeb criticized Palin by saying, "my belief is in 2010 and 2012, public leaders need to have intellectual curiosity." [http://www.newser.com/story/81720/jeb-bush-sarah-palin-not-intellectual-enough.html]</ref> Jeb published an editorial on Jan. 3, 2011 taking credit for saving Florida [[public schools]] with vouchers.<ref>http://www.politifact.com/florida/statements/2011/jan/03/jeb-bush/jeb-bush-touts-education-gains-wall-street-journal/</ref>

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|Jeb's only chance is if there is a deadlock at the [[Republican National Convention]]. ~~Jeb~~ says he does not intend to run in 2012. He knows that he would be viewed negatively by some as the "third" Bush, but everyone expects him to run at some point and he's not getting any younger. Jeb is disliked by some Tea Partiers, but not as disliked as Romney. Endorsed [[Mitt Romney]] <ref>http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/03/21/breaking-jeb-bush-endorses-romney/</ref>.

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|Jeb's only chance is if there is a deadlock at the [[Republican National Convention]]. He says he does not intend to run in 2012. He knows that he would be viewed negatively by some as the "third" Bush, but everyone expects him to run at some point and he's not getting any younger. Jeb is disliked by some Tea Partiers, but not as disliked as Romney. Endorsed [[Mitt Romney]] <ref>http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/03/21/breaking-jeb-bush-endorses-romney/</ref>.

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|Jeb ~~will not want to wait~~ until ~~2020~~ to ~~run, which may~~ be ~~his next opportunity if a Republican wins in 2012 amid the persistent high unemployment~~. He has endorsed Romney for 2012.

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|Jeb may be waiting until 2016, expecting Obama to be re-elected. He has endorsed Romney for 2012.

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|[[Rick Santorum]]

|Stongly conservative across the board, family man, well-received by evangelicals. He has received a 100% rating from the [[National Right to Life Committee]] for his pro-life voting record during his time in the Senate. The [[NRA]] has given him an A+ lifetime rating for protecting 2nd Amendment rights<ref>http://votesmart.org/candidate/evaluations/27054/rick-santorum</ref>.

|Almost certainly began as a [[stalking horse]] for [[Mitt Romney]], hoping Mitt will appoint him to a government position, and may now be seeking to be Romney's VP. Rick's all-out support of [[RINO]] and now-Democrat [[Arlen Specter]] prevented [[Pat Toomey]] from defeating him in 2002, although he regretted it at CPAC 2010; Santorum endorsed Romney in 2008 rather than more conservative candidates. Santorum's tax plan has been criticized for adding even more people to the number not required to pay federal income taxes, and he's been criticized for supporting earmarks while in the Senate.

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|Ohio Attorney General Mike DeWine, a former [[U.S. Senator]], switched his endorsement from Romney to Santorum on Feb. 17, helping lift Santorum to a razor-thin loss to Romney in the Ohio primary. Rick is fabulous in debates and television interviews. Won an upset victory in the [[Iowa Caucuses]], but was an also-ran in the New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida primaries before rebounding to win primaries in Missouri, Minnesota, Colorado, North Dakota, and most of the Southern states.

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|Ohio Attorney General Mike DeWine, a former [[U.S. Senator]], switched his endorsement from Romney to Santorum on Feb. 17, helping lift Santorum to a razor-thin loss to Romney in the Ohio primary. Rick is fabulous in debates and television interviews. Won an upset victory in the [[Iowa Caucuses]], but was an also-ran in the New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida primaries before rebounding to win primaries in Missouri, Minnesota, Colorado, North Dakota, and most of the Southern states. Ended his campaign and endorsed Romney.

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|[[Sarah Palin]]

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|The second most likely to win if ~~neither Mitt, Newt, nor Rick can win a majority of delegates~~. Sarah is empathetic, attracts crowds, is personally [[pro-life]], is a fiscal conservative, and has a record of supporting upset victors in primaries; had a popular television series and book tour that emphasized the grassroots rather than the "inside the Beltway" mentality. Relies heavily on [[Facebook]].

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|The second most likely to win if Romney stumbles. Sarah is empathetic, attracts crowds, is personally [[pro-life]], is a fiscal conservative, and has a record of supporting upset victors in primaries; had a popular television series and book tour that emphasized the grassroots rather than the "inside the Beltway" mentality. Relies heavily on [[Facebook]].

|Her taxation policies were somewhat liberal.<ref>http://community.adn.com/node/112712</ref> Appointed a former [[Planned Parenthood]] board member to the [[Alaska]] Supreme Court and inexplicably resigned early as governor; lagged in fundraising despite publicity, came in a disappointing fifth in the [[Values Voter Summit]] in September 2010 and fared badly at [[CPAC]]. Several of her prominent 2010 candidates (Ken Buck, Joe Miller, Christine O'Donnell) struck out on Nov. 2nd, and many Republicans from [[George W. Bush]] (allegedly) to [[Peggy Noonan]] have been critical of her running for president.<ref>http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Election-2010/Vox-News/2010/1106/Republican-establishment-takes-on-Sarah-Palin</ref> Frequently mocked by the [[liberal media]].

|Announced on October 5 that she would not be a candidate for president in 2012. Marist poll conducted September 13-14, showed that a large majority of Republicans didn't want her to run.

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|[[Rick Perry]]

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|Announced his candidacy late, on August 13. He is a conservative-talking governor who has run [[Texas]] for a decade (since [[George W. Bush]] became president); crushed [[RINO]] [[Kay Bailey Hutchison]] in the 2010 primary and then won a landslide in the general election, carrying others to victory on his strong coattails; has an excellent jobs record in his State and which he can contrast with liberal-run states. Strong religious faith that he is not afraid to show. Understands the concept of [[states' rights]]. Is a formidable fundraiser.

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|Announced his candidacy late, on August 13, 2011. He is a conservative-talking governor who has run [[Texas]] for a decade (since [[George W. Bush]] became president); crushed [[RINO]] [[Kay Bailey Hutchison]] in the 2010 primary and then won a landslide in the general election, carrying others to victory on his strong coattails; has an excellent jobs record in his State and which he can contrast with liberal-run states. Strong religious faith that he is not afraid to show. Understands the concept of [[states' rights]]. Is a formidable fundraiser.

|Pulled out on the eve of the South Carolina primary. He may be more conservative in his rhetoric than his policies; endorsed [[RINO]] [[Rudy Giuliani]] in 2008; tried by executive order to force all schoolgirls (except for parental opt-outs) to receive the [[HPV vaccine]]; raised business taxes while governor; supports exceptions for allowing [[abortion]]; and continues to champion a Texas policy that allows in-state tuition for illegal immigrants. Did poorly in the Values Voter Summit [[straw poll]].

|Stumbled in his first major statements on [[abortion]], [[same-sex marriage]], and illegal immigration. Was ahead in national polls after his declaration of candidacy, then fell dramatically following a series of poor debate performances that raised doubts about his [[electability]]. Suspended his campaign on January 19 and endorsed Gingrich.

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|Has foreign policy and executive experience. Appealing to moderates, although this is because he holds numerous liberal stances.

|Quit in mid-January 2012. Other negatives include how he worked in the Obama administration; criticized the [[economic stimulus package]] as not being big enough, favors Comprehensive Immigration Reform, supports civil unions, and is a believer in man-made global warming; the "civility" candidate adored by the media for being more willing to attack his fellow Republicans than the Democrats.

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|Garnered little support nationally, except among the media and multiple Democrats. Bypassing Iowa, Huntsman put his all into the New Hampshire primary and finished third. He announced that his candidacy would continue but dropped out of the race less than a week later.

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|Garnered little support nationally, except among the media and multiple Democrats. Bypassing Iowa, Huntsman put his all into the New Hampshire primary and finished third. He announced that his candidacy would continue but dropped out of the race less than a week later. He has not endorsed Romney.

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|[[Herman Cain]]

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|Young; popular in his home state of [[Minnesota]]; Had a surprisingly good record on immigration.

|Still not well known outside of Minnesota; signed $893 million in meddlesome fees/taxes including a "health fee" for cigarette smokers (which was ruled unconstitutional), a harvest fee for farmers, a 9-1-1 fee on all telephone lines, a fee for traditional marriage, and large increase in parking fees; supported the liberal [[cap and trade]]; accepted stimulus funds after arguing against them; lacks a socially conservative base; arranged a meeting with a liberal medical society in 2003 in order to cave into the pro-[[abortion]] side by downplaying medical harm caused by abortion,<ref>http://www.lifenews.com/2003/12/30/state-281/</ref> despite hard-fought passage of the Woman's Right to Know Act mandating disclosure. Came off as drab and uncompelling. He endorsed Mitt Romney after he ended his own bid.<ref>http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/09/12/pawlenty-endorses-romney-for-president/</ref>

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|Lost ground after a perception of underachieving in the first debate June 13; then his criticism of Michele Bachmann seemed to backfire with her rebuttal in the second debate. Pawlenty finished third in the Iowa Straw Poll and quickly announced that he was ending his bid for the nomination.

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|Lost ground after a perception of underachieving in the first debate June 13; then his criticism of Michele Bachmann seemed to backfire with her rebuttal in the second debate. Pawlenty finished third in the Iowa Straw Poll and quickly announced that he was ending his bid for the nomination. He is rumored to be among the two or three finalists for the Vice-Presidential nomination.

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|[[Marco Rubio]]

|A [[movement conservative]] who could unite the Party, he is the most charismatic speaker in politics today; in the general election he would pull [[Florida]] and many Hispanic voters away from the Democrats. Both of his parents were Cuban exiles at the time of his birth in Miami, making his an inspiring, uniquely American success story. Many Republican voters think he would be the ideal candidate for Vice President.

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|Could face the liberal [[double standard]] on three fronts: ~~1) what's OK for Obama (e.g.,~~ inexperience) is somehow not OK for a [[conservative]]. 2) Liberals who have been deriding the strict definition of "natural born citizen" which some conservatives have been applying to Obama might also turn around and use the same logic with Rubio, ~~claiming that~~ his non-~~citizen parents invalidate~~ his ~~natural-born status. 3)~~ Rubio's restatement of the exact year in which his parents arrived in the USA has ~~been seized upon by Democrats hoping to hurt him with Hispanic voters and also get even with Conservatives~~ for ~~questioning Obama's place of birth. Endorsed~~ Mitt Romney <ref>[http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/03/28/rubio-endorses-romney-saying-hes-earned-it/ Rubio endorses Romney, saying he's 'earned' it] March 28th FoxNews.com</ref> <br />

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|Could face the liberal [[double standard]] on three fronts: inexperience, his parents being non-citizens at the time of his birth, and Rubio's restatement of the exact year in which his parents arrived in the USA. Endorsed and has campaigned for Mitt Romney <ref>[http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/03/28/rubio-endorses-romney-saying-hes-earned-it/ Rubio endorses Romney, saying he's 'earned' it] March 28th FoxNews.com</ref> <br />

|Declared on October 5 that he will not be a candidate for Vice President. Won the 2012 CPAC straw poll for Vice President anyway.

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|[[Rand Paul]]

|Could be the next [[Ronald Reagan]]; is the heir-apparent to massive support for [[Ron Paul]]; won the [[U.S. Senate]] seat by a 56-44% landslide in 2010, despite an intense effort by [[liberals]] to smear and defeat him; is 100% [[pro-life]]. Failure of Congress to cut spending enhances likelihood that voters will turn to someone strong on reducing government.

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|Rand, immensely popular after his landslide victory for Senate, ~~will not~~ run ~~for president unless his dad drops his own campaign~~ for the ~~same office~~.

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|Rand, immensely popular after his landslide victory for Senate, showed no interest in a run for the Presidential nomination.

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|Supporting his dad's run for President.

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|Supporting his dad's run for President but did express support for Romney after his nomination seemed secure.

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|[[Allen West]]

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|[[Jim DeMint]]

|Strong support by social conservatives, libertarians,<ref>Jim Demint has the best favorable-unfavorable rating of anyone at CPAC 2010.</ref> Tea Party, and evangelicals; a tenacious advocate willing to criticize Obama

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|Stated at a conservative conference in July 2010 that he is not running for president, but ~~after [[Mike Pence]] pulled out in Jan. 2011 Jim DeMint appeared to show interest again, before announcing~~ in late March 2011 that he was not running.

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|Stated at a conservative conference in July 2010 that he was not running for president. Later showed hints that he might reconsider, but announced in late March 2011 that he was not running.

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|Definitely ~~not running now~~.

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|Definitely a future prospect.

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|[[Ken Cuccinelli]]

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|[[Bobby Jindal]]

|Conservative Governor of [[Louisiana]], strong critic of [[Obama]]'s handling of the [[Gulf oil spill]] in the summer of 2010.

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|Says he's not running for president or vice-president.

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|Says he's not running for president or vice-president, but has been called one of the top half-dozen Presidential possibilities.

|Made a good statement on birth certificate issue

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|Defeated [[Tom Daschle]], relatively conservative voting record for a senator; also taller than Obama, and enjoys broad support

|Announced on Feb. 22, 2011 that he's not running; may lack an essential "fire in the belly";<ref>http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/eye-on-2012/assessing-john-thunes-2012-cha.html?referrer=emaillink</ref> voted for TARP financial bailout<ref>http://hoghouseblog.com/2009/09/01/thune-wants-to-end-bailout-he-voted-for/</ref> and McCain-Feingold campaign finance; no-show at some conservative events; hasn't effectively criticized Obama; could simply become a stalking horse candidate for Gingrich, brought 100 million worth of earmarks in a spending bill, then awkwardly claimed he backed the projects but opposed the bill.

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|Not running

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|Not running, but is thought by some to be among Romney's finalists for Vice-President.

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|[[Jan Brewer]]

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The short form analysis is this: it probably requires a minimum of $25 million in campaign funds to win the nomination, and more if the candidate lacks a strong [[conservative]] base. Many of the candidates are probably looking to big fundraisers for support, but they are unsure of whom to back. Karl Rove, with all of his contacts from the Bush years, may be able to raise $20 million for a candidate; Haley Barbour might be able to raise even more. Fox News and its allies can raise eight figures also, as they helped reelect [[John McCain]] as senator in 2010.

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The fundraising obstacle is no problem for Mitt Romney. Ron Paul could sustain his campaign as he did in 2008, relying heavily on the internet. Rick Perry has some fundraising strength. Newt Gingrich ~~may be~~ able to raise funds if promoted by the [[Fox News Channel]]. But others lacking in a strong base ~~will struggle~~ unless they can obtain the support of either the Bush/Rove group, or Barbour's network, or Fox News and its allies.

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The fundraising obstacle is no problem for Mitt Romney. Ron Paul could sustain his campaign as he did in 2008, relying heavily on the internet. Rick Perry has some fundraising strength. Newt Gingrich is able to raise funds if promoted by the [[Fox News Channel]]. But others lacking a strong base have little chance unless they can obtain the support of either the Bush/Rove group, or Barbour's network, or Fox News and its allies.

====Long form====

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A Quinnipiac University survey released after the [[2010 Midterm elections]] indicated that a plurality of Americans don't think Obama deserves to be re-elected to a second term, and an Associated Press-GfK survey in the same time span indicates that 54% believe Obama should be voted out of office in 2012.<ref>http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2010/11/24/poll-democrats-split-on-2012-obama-primary-challenge/</ref> Former DNC chairman [[Ed Rendell]] suggested on [[MSNBC]], liberal anger over Obama's escalation of the war in Afghanistan could lead to a primary challenge.<ref>http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20011923-503544.html</ref>

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More recent polls ~~show~~ Obama running close to even with his most likely opponents. <ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll]</ref>

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More recent polls showed Obama running close to even with his most likely opponents. <ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll]</ref>

The ''[[New York Times]]'' reported many [[liberal]]s are so upset over recommendations by the Deficit Reduction Commission which President Obama himself created after the Democratic controlled Congress voted the idea down,<ref>http://peoplesworld.org/senate-defeats-deficit-commission/</ref> "if Mr. Obama were to embrace its major parts, he would invite a primary challenge in 2012."<ref>http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/12/us/politics/12fiscal.html</ref> Clarence B. Jones, who was a personal advisor, legal counsel, and close friend of Dr. [[Martin Luther King, Jr.]], has called for a primary challenge to President Obama.<ref>http://crooksandliars.com/susie-madrak/former-mlk-advisor-calls-primary-chal</ref>

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Also Obama's [[Libya#Libyan_uprising_2011|Libyan intervention]] has raised the ire of many prominent leftists who question the [[wisdom]] and [[legal]]ity of the president's actions.<ref>http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0311/51595.html</ref>

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Also, Obama's [[Libya#Libyan_uprising_2011|Libyan intervention]] has raised the ire of many prominent leftists who question the [[wisdom]] and [[legal]]ity of the president's actions.<ref>http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0311/51595.html</ref>

{| class="wikitable"

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|[[Randall Terry]]

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|Pro-life, and ardently so, unlike most Democrats. ~~Will make~~ this issue, which most Americans agree with, the cornerstone of his campaign. Is a conservative, and argued in favor of Terri Schavio's family in the case to allow her to live.

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|Pro-life, and ardently so, unlike most Democrats. Has made this issue, which most Americans agree with, the cornerstone of his campaign. Is a conservative, and argued in favor of Terri Schavio's family in the case to allow her to live.

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|Only recently joined the Democrats, in order to run against Obama in the primary; largely seen as a 'joke' candidate by most people; no media attention~~, and he likely will never get a chance to go up against Obama in a debate~~.

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|Only recently joined the Democrats, in order to run against Obama in the primary; largely seen as a 'joke' candidate by most people; no media attention.

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|Disfavored on MSNBC, on the rare ~~occasion~~ he's mentioned

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|Disfavored on MSNBC, on the rare occasions he's mentioned.

|}

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|[[Hillary Clinton]]

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|Her criticism of Obama's massive deficits hinted at a possible run against him in 2012, and [[Ted Kennedy]] cannot interfere with her nomination this time; moreover, waiting until 2016 is unattractive because she will be 71 then. A recent Bloomberg poll shows she has a 64% approval rating, higher than any other national political figure.<ref>[http://yourjewishnews.com/11198.aspx Hillary Clinton approval rating jumps to 64%.], September 17, 2011. October 1, 2011.</ref> Tested the waters with Bill backing a challenger to Obama's Colorado Senate candidate (who then lost), and by Hillary saying she won't serve a second term as Obama's Secretary of State. The chances of Hillary running and winning the nomination ~~increase~~ with every decline in Obama's approval ratings.

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|Her criticism of Obama's massive deficits hinted at a possible run against him in 2012, and [[Ted Kennedy]] cannot interfere with her nomination this time; moreover, waiting until 2016 is unattractive because she will be 71 then. A recent Bloomberg poll shows she has a 64% approval rating, higher than any other national political figure.<ref>[http://yourjewishnews.com/11198.aspx Hillary Clinton approval rating jumps to 64%.], September 17, 2011. October 1, 2011.</ref> Tested the waters with Bill backing a challenger to Obama's Colorado Senate candidate (who then lost), and by Hillary saying she won't serve a second term as Obama's Secretary of State. The chances of Hillary running and winning the nomination increased with every decline in Obama's approval ratings.

|Has stated numerous times that she will not seek an elected position once she leaves her current position as Secretary of State. Her [[feminism]] is disliked by conservatives, but is popular with liberal women. She'd lose the general election as [[Martha Coakley]] did.

|Disfavored on MSNBC.

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== Independent Candidacies -- Mike Bloomberg or Donald Trump ==

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The man who spent $185 per vote to garner 51% of the vote to remain as Mayor of [[New York City]] in 2009, [[Mike Bloomberg]], ~~is increasingly looking~~ like an independent, self-funded candidate for president in 2012.

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The man who spent $185 per vote to garner 51% of the vote to remain as Mayor of [[New York City]] in 2009, [[Mike Bloomberg]], looked for a time like an independent, self-funded candidate for president in 2012.

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$185 per vote times 50 million voters equals $9.25 billion, which Bloomberg can easily afford as one of the richest men in the world. The catch is that 50 million Americans are not as likely to be persuaded by self-funded campaign ads as 51% of New Yorkers were. Also, it is possible that money is becoming ''less influential'' in campaigns, not more so. The most likely result from a Bloomberg candidacy would be a split in the [[pro-abortion]], pro-[[homosexual agenda]] vote with the [[Democratic]] nominee, facilitating election of the Republican nominee.

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$185 per vote times 50 million voters equals $9.25 billion, which Bloomberg can easily afford as one of the richest men in the world. The catch is that 50 million Americans are not as likely to be persuaded by self-funded campaign ads as 51% of New Yorkers were. Also, it is possible that money is becoming ''less influential'' in campaigns, not more so. The most likely result from a Bloomberg candidacy would be to split the [[pro-abortion]], pro-[[homosexual agenda]] vote with the [[Democratic]] nominee, facilitating election of the Republican nominee.

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Donald Trump is also ~~considering~~ an independent bid for president, particularly after he changed is party affiliation in December 2011 to "unaffiliated". What a difference a few months make. In April 2011, Trump was tied for first in the [[Gallup Poll]] among Republican contenders.<ref>As of April 22, 2011.</ref> He forced Obama to take seriously voters' concerns over his birth certificate, and was willing to criticize liberal media; he has business savvy and resources as a billionaire and is well-known.<ref>[http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/10/05/trump-seriously-considering-presidential-bid/?test=latestnews Trump 'Seriously Considering' 2012 Presidential Bid, FOXNews, October 5, 2010]</ref> His unscripted, abrasive and arrogant style may be just what voters want, and not being a career politician helps his cause. But he is rightly criticized for his ego and has never held elected office. He would ~~needs~~ to explain his previous support of liberal policies such as socialized medicine,<ref>http://www.slate.com/id/2291263/</ref> as well as donating to various Democrats including [[Harry Reid]] in the past.

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Donald Trump has also considered an independent bid for president, particularly after he changed his party affiliation in December 2011 to "unaffiliated". What a difference a few months make. In April 2011, Trump was tied for first in the [[Gallup Poll]] among Republican contenders.<ref>As of April 22, 2011.</ref> He forced Obama to take seriously voters' concerns over his birth certificate, and was willing to criticize liberal media; he has business savvy and resources as a billionaire and is well-known.<ref>[http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/10/05/trump-seriously-considering-presidential-bid/?test=latestnews Trump 'Seriously Considering' 2012 Presidential Bid, FOXNews, October 5, 2010]</ref> His unscripted, abrasive and arrogant style may be just what voters want, and not being a career politician helps his cause. But he is rightly criticized for his ego and has never held elected office. He would need to explain his previous support of liberal policies such as socialized medicine,<ref>http://www.slate.com/id/2291263/</ref> as well as donating to various Democrats including [[Harry Reid]] in the past.

== Minor Parties ==

Wycliffe

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United States presidential election, 2012 (view source)

Revision as of 18:43, August 5, 2012

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