User:Ferret/2012ElectionOdds

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Probability to end of January 2012

Candidate 11 Dec 2011 17 Dec 2011 26 Dec 2011 1 Jan 2012 5 Jan 2012 11 Jan 2012 18 Jan 2012 23 Jan 2012
Newt Gingrich 20.5% 18.2% 10.5% 5.0% 2.9% 2.7% 2.4% 10.1%
Mitt Romney 20.5% 20.4% 28.0% 34.2% 33.2% 34.1% 36.7% 30.3%
Ron Paul 4.8% 4.8% 4.4% 5.0% 3.7% 3.4% 3.2% 3.1%
Jon Huntsman 3.6% 3.6% 3.2% 2.1% 1.9% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Rick Perry 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.3% 1.2% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0%
Michele Bachmann 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rick Santorum 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 1.7% 4.1% 3.0% 2.1% 1.4%
Rudy Giuliani 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Republican Total 53.0% 50.6% 49.3% 50.3% 47.0% 45.1% 45.1% 44.9%
Barack Obama 44.8% 47.3% 48.5% 47.5% 50.5% 52.7% 52.7% 52.9%
Hilary Clinton 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.7% 2.1% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8%
Joe Biden 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Democrat Total 47.0% 49.4% 50.7% 49.7% 52.6% 54.5% 54.5% 54.7%
Gary Johnson 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
Independent Total 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%

Probability from February 2012

Candidate 1 Feb 2012 8 Feb 2012 11 Feb 2012 20 Feb 2012 29 Feb 2012 9 March 2012 11 April 2012 19 April 2012 12 May 2012
Newt Gingrich 4.3% 2.1% 2.0% 1.7% 1.6% 1.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Mitt Romney 36.4% 33.2% 29.9% 26.7% 27.2% 28.7% 32.1% 34.0% 33.5%
Ron Paul 1.8% 1.6% 1.5% 1.8% 1.7% 1.3% 1.5% 1.8% 1.8%
Rick Santorum 0.9% 5.1% 6.9% 7.8% 5.9% 4.2% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Jeb Bush 1.7% 1.3% 1.0% 1.4% 0.0%
Republican Total 43.4% 42.0% 40.3% 37.9% 38.2% 37.0% 36.6% 37.1% 35.3%
Barack Obama 54.9% 56.3% 57.9% 60.3% 60.1% 61.9% 62.1% 62.9% 62.1%
Hilary Clinton 1.7% 1.7% 1.8% 1.8% 1.7% 1.1% 1.3% 0.0% 2.6%
Democrat Total 56.6% 58.0% 59.7% 62.1% 61.8% 63.0% 63.4% 62.9% 64.7%

Probability from August 2012

Candidate 9 Aug 2012 16 Sept 2012 26 Sept 2012 3 November 2012
Mitt Romney 34.4% 27.7% 21.7% 22.5%
Barack Obama 65.6% 72.3% 78.3% 77.5%


(Source: William Hill, Ladbrokes)