View source for Talk:Essay: Why did so many self-declared international relations experts miserably fail concerning their multipolar fantasy?

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==Why this Essay?==
I wrote the essay [[Essay: Why did so many self-declared international relations experts miserably fail concerning their multipolar fantasy?|Why did so many self-declared international relations experts miserably fail concerning their multipolar fantasy?]]

I give 4 major reasons why this happened. 

Can anyone think of any other major reasons? [[User:Conservative|Conservative]] ([[User talk:Conservative|talk]]) 13:42, September 12, 2023 (EDT)

:Out of ideas already, huh? 12,000 bytes of [[spam]] will only get you so far. [[User:RobSmith|RobS]]<sup>[[User talk:RobSmith|''Give Peace a Chance!'']]</sup> 14:08, September 12, 2023 (EDT)

:Here's an idea: demonic possession and the [[Dark Triad personality traits]] is why multipolar fantasies failed. 

:Better yet: [[Essay: Demonic possession and the Dark Triad personality traits will cause self-appointed geopolitics experts to miserably fail concerning their multipolar fantasy]]. [[User:RobSmith|RobS]]<sup>[[User talk:RobSmith|''Give Peace a Chance!'']]</sup> 14:12, September 12, 2023 (EDT)

:Here's an idea: "Neocon neo-Nazi warmonger [[David Brooks]] wrote, ''[https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/07/opinion/economy-china-america-decline.html The American Renaissance Is Already at Hand]'' is evidence the multipolar fantasy has failed." [[User:RobSmith|RobS]]<sup>[[User talk:RobSmith|''Give Peace a Chance!'']]</sup> 14:19, September 12, 2023 (EDT)
[[File:Wager.PNG|1200px]]

Here's the problem as I see it: If you had actually read [[Samuel Huntington]]'s 1996 book, ''[[Clash of Civilizations]]'', you wouldn't have denied on April 17, 2022 that civilization had reached a turning point. But you didn't read the book and form any ideas or opinions of your own. Instead, you came up with Huntington by Googling for a few words and phrases to cherry pick a couple of lines for one of your [[Islamophobic]] screeds, and to make it sound scholarly, authorative, and researched. And you've never stopped. That's your style. And the more you do it, the more it becomes obvious.

It's simply easier to not pretend, keep your nose out of where it does not belong, and admit when you made an error, rather than spend 18 months writing 2 dozen Essays of pure nonsense and crap. "Yah, but Rob, I get page views". Congratulations. I hope you're proud of being deceptive and misleading conservative students. [[User:RobSmith|RobS]]<sup>[[User talk:RobSmith|''Give Peace a Chance!'']]</sup> 16:38, September 12, 2023 (EDT)

:<big>'''My reply:'''</big> [[Essay: The SPECIFIC MONTH OF APRIL 2022 was not a pivotal point in geopolitics that will affect geopolitics for 30 years]]. [[User:Conservative|Conservative]] ([[User talk:Conservative|talk]]) 19:16, September 12, 2023 (EDT)

:Lol. User:Conservative: The damage is done. You already declared yourself an expert in the [[Haushofer school]]. [https://www.conservapedia.com/index.php?title=Talk:Essay:_Why_did_so_many_self-declared_international_relations_experts_miserably_fail_concerning_their_multipolar_fantasy%3F&curid=179132&diff=1995242&oldid=1995233#Geopolitics] You never listen when I try to extend you advice.

:::The etylmology of words certainly has its place. But it's ridiculous to expect someone to know the etymology of all the words they speak.  Also, words have different meanings and also change over time. 

:::More importantly, the Meriam Webster dictionary defines geopolitics as "a study of the influence of such factors as geography, economics, and demography on the politics and especially the foreign policy of a state."[https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/geopolitics]  So I didn't think the essay had the right title so I replaced the word "geopolitics" with international relations.  [[User:Conservative|Conservative]] ([[User talk:Conservative|talk]]) 01:24, October 17, 2023 (EDT)

::::Oh, you would think someone so studied and expert in the field of geopolitics and international relations would have some clue what they were talking and writing about, especially after watching 90 minutes of a Mearsheimer video. I guess not. I guess you simply hadn't a clue, when for some reason you felt compelled to contradict me in April 2022. You should have just left it at that. But the man-child in you felt obsessed to go on an 18 month jihad against another person simply cause you opened your mouth when you should have just let it go and kept it shut. 

::::Now you're on record for duplicity of your actions, and you can't live down being a self-declared expert of the Haushofer school of realism, not until you delete all the rot you have written over the past 18 months and step back and away from a field you have no interest or understanding about. It's Charlatans such as yourself who have given the field of international relations a bad reputation for more than a century, and have caused so much devastation and destruction.

::::Remember, your mentors and spirit guides like Haushofer and Brzezinski deserved to be in the docket at Nuremberg, if you wish to continue playing this stupid game with me. [[User:RobSmith|RobS]]<sup>[[User talk:RobSmith|''Give Peace a Chance!'']]</sup> 01:43, October 17, 2023 (EDT)

:::Your stuff I wouldn't rate as high as Haushofer; it's more of the caliber of [[Goebbels]] or [[Julius Streicher]] for the general masses and a less educated audience. So just keep it up. [[User:RobSmith|RobS]]<sup>[[User talk:RobSmith|''Give Peace a Chance!'']]</sup> 01:51, October 17, 2023 (EDT)
::::I have never said I was an expert in international relations. Having greater insight than you on various international relations topics is certainly not a herculean feat. 

::::Furthermore, Mearsheimer is not the end all and be all of scholars/experts in international relations although he makes some legitimate points. 

::::In addition, you are hardly in a position to compare me to Goebbels given your intentionally misleading/false statements in the [[Bill Browder]] and [[Karen Dawisha]] articles that I called you out on as far as the talk pages of those articles. 

::::And as far as your charge of "spirit guides", you are the person who used the crank [[Caitlin Johnstone]] to defend China at [[Talk:Essay: The rising rule of communist idiocracy in China]]. She wrote a book on astrology called ''The Complete Book Of Astrology: Your personal guide to learning, understanding and using Astrology''.  [[User:Conservative|Conservative]] ([[User talk:Conservative|talk]]) 02:42, October 17, 2023 (EDT)
I would also point out that disagreeing with you on various matters is not a jihad or some kind of unpardonable sin. People disagree with me all the time and I certainly don't get upset about it.  That is a reasonable attitude to have. The someone disagrees with me on the internet approach is a very unreasonable attitude to have. 

Stephen Kotkin, who is a very knowledgeable historian, [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qovJZwIVr0 agrees with me] that the world is not multipolar and the notion that it is multipolar is a lot of nonsense. 

I also cite: "We are not in a multipolar world." - International Relations and Security Analyst Mark Sleboda on Brian Berlectic's pro-Russia New Atlas YouTube channel.[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pK4SZ5IzeRE&t=7577s]

Colonel Douglas MacGregor said about China in the video [https://www.youtube.com/shorts/P7V9JdGs76g Why China's Navy is a JOKE]: "China has huge problems just holding itself together. So I think we should set China aside and understand that." [[User:Conservative|Conservative]] ([[User talk:Conservative|talk]]) 03:00, October 17, 2023 (EDT)

:::::(ec) No, I don't go out there trash talking whole societies, peoples, and cultures as is wont to be your habit for a long time.

[[File:China sewage eating.PNG|1100px]]
{{Clear}}
It is true that I have made criticisms of various countries. But given your obsessive criticism of Ukraine, you are hardly in a position to complain. Also, I have complimented various countries as well for various things they have done or do such as Switzerland, Singapore, Finland and the Philippines. [[User:Conservative|Conservative]] ([[User talk:Conservative|talk]]) 03:23, October 17, 2023 (EDT)
:::::I don't spend 15 hours a day for a year and half trying to get even with some stranger I met online, either.

:::::And I don't think you understand what a spirit guide is, anymore than you understand anything about geopolitics or international relations, although in your obsession with trolling strangers you meet online you have allowed certain spirits (like Sun Tzu or Haushofer) to guide you.

::::''When the unclean spirit is gone out of a man, he walketh through dry places, seeking rest; and finding none, he saith, I will return unto my house whence I came out. And when he cometh, he findeth it swept and garnished.  Then goeth he, and taketh to him seven other spirits more wicked than himself; and they enter in, and dwell there: and the last state of that man is worse than the first.''

:::::: [[User:RobSmith|RobS]]<sup>[[User talk:RobSmith|''Give Peace a Chance!'']]</sup> 03:04, October 17, 2023 (EDT)
First of all, you are the one who let power go to your head and then started treating Conservapedia editors badly (That is why only one person signed up for your [[Team CP]]). So you are hardly in a position to complain about someone attempting to get even. Also, someone merely disagreeing with you is not someone getting even with you. [[User:Conservative|Conservative]] ([[User talk:Conservative|talk]]) 03:14, October 17, 2023 (EDT)
:::::::Well, I think you treated all of China, Russia, the atheist population of the planet, and your fellow Conservapedians badly for a long time. I think you treated me badly, and lied and made things up about me the first time I was desysoped. But I can forgive. It's your obstinacy now (besides your racism aqnd prejudice) that bothers me - especially since you claim to be a conservative Christian Republican. Is that what a conservative Republican is - a petty, vindictive, pretentious and obsessive little bigot? [[User:RobSmith|RobS]]<sup>[[User talk:RobSmith|''Give Peace a Chance!'']]</sup> 03:24, October 17, 2023 (EDT)

I have frequently said you have an obsession with the issue of racism. 

Also, I have had excellent relations with Chinese people in my life and I volunteered for a Christian ministry that largely focused on ministering to Chinese students. In addition, I dated a lovely Chinese lady that my Taiwanese friend introduced me to. I also treat Ukrainians nicer than you and dated a lovely Ukrainian lady. And I have an excellent business relationship and friendly relationship with a very influential atheist/agnostic in the USA (And this person knows about my atheism articles on the internet).  And I think User: ConwayIII, who I believe is a UK atheist, has a higher opinion of me than he has of you. Furthermore, the UK agnostic User: Mercian and I have a cordial relationship (via email) and he also has a higher opinion of me than he has of you. [[User:Conservative|Conservative]] ([[User talk:Conservative|talk]]) 03:37, October 17, 2023 (EDT)

:Yes, I do have an obsession with racism - I don't like being associated with racists. ''Birds of a feather'', as they say.

:Your racist writings speak for themselves. [[User:RobSmith|RobS]]<sup>[[User talk:RobSmith|''Give Peace a Chance!'']]</sup> 03:41, October 17, 2023 (EDT)
::I will also point out that I felt sorry for an old Russian lady who was down on her luck and I let her stay at my residence for a few weeks. Nobody believes that I am a racist - except for you. And to be frank, I am not sure how sincere your allegation of my supposed racism is. [[User:Conservative|Conservative]] ([[User talk:Conservative|talk]]) 03:45, October 17, 2023 (EDT)

:Am I my brother's keeper? Yes. Is it my job to cover your sin? That's between you and [[Jesus]]. [[User:RobSmith|RobS]]<sup>[[User talk:RobSmith|''Give Peace a Chance!'']]</sup> 03:48, October 17, 2023 (EDT)
::Just because you ardently embrace corrupt and authoritarian regimes (namely Russia and China) and I make legitimate criticisms of those countries, that certainly doesn't make me a racist. [[User:Conservative|Conservative]] ([[User talk:Conservative|talk]]) 03:51, October 17, 2023 (EDT)

== Feedback ==

Looks alright to me, Ben. I'd add that it's mostly a product of political extremes: both far-left and far-right actors have their own reasons for promoting a weaker, more fractured international order and more chaos generally.

In terms of how people can so readily ignore so much evidence to the contrary, you should probably have a section on the interplay between motivated reasoning and the Dunning-Kruger effect. [[User:ConwayIII|ConwayIII]] ([[User talk:ConwayIII|talk]]) 18:33, September 12, 2023 (EDT)

:[https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2023/09/chinas-new-satellites-extend-its-militarys-reach-us-says/390223/ China’s new satellites extend its military reach, US says]. Dem [[third world]]ers gettin' a bit [[uppidy]]. [[User:RobSmith|RobS]]<sup>[[User talk:RobSmith|''Give Peace a Chance!'']]</sup> 18:41, September 12, 2023 (EDT)

::The Dunning-Kruger effect especially affects those who don't actively question and try to falsify their ideas. In other words, they do not practice critical thinking. 

::Below are some great resources on how political experts and other experts who actively try to falsify their notions/theories achieve superior results and it is based on a significant body of research:

::*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kcnj61KSOhM Professor Philip Tetlock on His Groundbreaking Research About 'Expert Judgment'] - video

::*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f73A-HB-08M Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?] by Philip Tetlock - video

::*[https://www.amazon.com/Expert-Political-Judgment-Good-Know/dp/0691128715/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1256588850&sr=8-1 Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?] by Philip E. Tetlock, Princeton University Press; New Ed edition (August 20, 2006) [[User:Conservative|Conservative]] ([[User talk:Conservative|talk]]) 18:47, September 12, 2023 (EDT)

:::OMG. I'm talking to a [[Trent Toulouse]] clone now. [[User:RobSmith|RobS]]<sup>[[User talk:RobSmith|''Give Peace a Chance!'']]</sup> 18:53, September 12, 2023 (EDT)

::::Take heart, my man. The D-K effect is what allows you to sincerely imagine yourself as a historian and scholar of note. [[User:ConwayIII|ConwayIII]] ([[User talk:ConwayIII|talk]]) 18:58, September 12, 2023 (EDT)

:::::Not of note. I'm just a chronicler writing a diary. [[User:RobSmith|RobS]]<sup>[[User talk:RobSmith|''Give Peace a Chance!'']]</sup> 18:59, September 12, 2023 (EDT)

::::::Great stuff. ''The Chronicles of Captain Cauldron: Gentleman & Diarist'' [[User:ConwayIII|ConwayIII]] ([[User talk:ConwayIII|talk]]) 19:14, September 12, 2023 (EDT)
ConwayIII, read [https://www.conservapedia.com/Essay:_Why_did_so_many_self-appointed_geopolitics_experts_miserably_fail_concerning_their_multipolar_fantasy%3F#A_major_ego-deflating_bonanza_of_self-appointed_geopolitics_experts_is_going_to_occur._It_will_be_a_popping_of_their_huge_egos_of_biblical_proportions.21 THIS].

I am looking forward to the year 2030. Watch the irrational rationalizations of Captain Cauldron then. [[User:Conservative|Conservative]] ([[User talk:Conservative|talk]]) 19:25, September 12, 2023 (EDT)

:Haven't you been forecasting the poop hitting the fan in the US of [[Great Depression]] proportions in 2030 for some time now? [[User:RobSmith|RobS]]<sup>[[User talk:RobSmith|''Give Peace a Chance!'']]</sup> 21:22, September 12, 2023 (EDT)

:'''[https://rumble.com/v3gdkor-president-trump-says-were-probably-heading-into-a-great-depression.-.html President Trump says “we’re probably heading into a Great Depression now.”] [[User:RobSmith|RobS]]<sup>[[User talk:RobSmith|''Give Peace a Chance!'']]</sup> 13:12, September 13, 2023 (EDT)
::Yes, I have said that the USA may have a Great Depression 2.0 in 2030 or the 2030s.  But I also said that the USA has a history of bouncing back from difficulties.  Furthermore, the issue of multipolarity involves relative strengths and I am assuming that is the USA experiences an economic recession it very well may be a global depression given the size of the USA economy and given the economic problems that I expect China to have during the 2030s. [[User:Conservative|Conservative]] ([[User talk:Conservative|talk]]) 03:06, October 17, 2023 (EDT)

==Geopolitics==
[[File:Doggie Doo Alert.jpg|left|150px|thumb|'''Doo-Doo Alert!''']]
User:Conservative proudly has a series he labels: [[User:Conservative%27s_essays#Geopolitics|User:Conservative Essays: Geopolitics]]. Let's see how studied and knowledgeable he is to lay claim to use of that term. Using 2 articles from Wikipedia (yes, as a member of WP's Copy Editor's Guild I found a glaring error in one article, but that section won't be cited here), I will produce a simple narrative,

:''Haushofer ... specialty was to combine the fields of geography, history, economics, demography, political science, and anthropology into a new discipline that came to be called Geopolitik.

:''Geopolitik is a branch of 19th-century German statecraft, foreign policy and geostrategy. It developed from the writings of various German philosophers, geographers and thinkers, including Oswald Spengler (1880-1936), Alexander Humboldt (1769-1859), Karl Ritter (1779-1859), Friedrich Ratzel (1844-1904), the Swede Rudolf Kjellén (1864-1922), and Karl Haushofer (1869-1946).

So obviously Haushofer coined the term.

:''Haushofer was informally interrogated by Fr. Edmund A. Walsh on behalf of [[Nuremberg Trials]] prosecutor [[Robert H. Jackson]] to determine whether Haushofer should also stand trial. Fr. Walsh ultimately reported to Jackson that Haushofer was both legally and morally guilty of complicity in Nazi [[war crimes]]. Citing, "the role of [[geopolitics]] in corrupting education into a preparation for war", Walsh accused Haushofer and his associates of being, "basically as guilty as the better-known war criminals."[11] In his later memoir of the Nuremberg Trials, Walsh further alleged that, "The tragedy of Karl Haushofer", was his participation in the, "nationalizing", of academic scholarship and of turning Geopolitik into a weapon supplying, "an allegedly scientific basis and justification for international brigandage."[12]

But User:Conservative proudly wears the title of geopolitical expert.

:''Karl and Martha Haushofer died together in a suicide pact''

Just like Adolf and Eva or Magda and Joseph Goebbels (romantic suicide pacts were all the rage in those days). But these are the people User:Conservative claims intellectual kinship or being an heir. Need I go on?

:''Haushofer visited Landsberg prison [in 1927] to teach and mentor both [Rudolph] Hess and Hitler.''

:''Haushofer also coined the political use of the term [[Lebensraum]], which Hitler also used to justify both crimes against peace and [[genocide]].

But there is no indication User:Conservative is bothered by any of this in his [[Russophobic]] 'intellectual' pursuit.

:''in 1919, he forged a friendship with the young [[Rudolf Hess]], who became his scientific assistant and later rose to be the deputy leader of the Nazi Party, second in authority only to Hitler. In 1919, Haushofer successfully defended his second dissertation, and became Privatdozent for political geography at Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich, and was made a professor in 1933''

There was no such thing as "geopolitics" in 1933. Haushofer, Hess, and Hitler made it popular and successful. But User:Conservative is oblivious to facts or history. The Russians aren't. [[User:RobSmith|RobS]]<sup>[[User talk:RobSmith|''Give Peace a Chance!'']]</sup> 00:13, September 24, 2023 (EDT)

::This is the No. 1 issue facing the planet right now, and we need to hear from our resident Geopolitical expert, whether MPR should be pro-Nazi or anti-Nazi, pro-[[global fascism]] or anti-[[globalist|global fascism]]. This is the purpose of talk/MPR. [[User:RobSmith|RobS]]<sup>[[User talk:RobSmith|''Give Peace a Chance!'']]</sup> 00:42, September 24, 2023 (EDT)

:See, if our resident Geopolitical expert were a [[Team CP|Cooperative Editor]] who didn't have his user page locked all the time or goes crying to Andy everytime someone tries to talk to him, he could have been warned about the big pile of doggie doo laying in the middle of the street he was walking into. But no, he has been more consumed with his Russophobic screeds the past year and a half. [[User:RobSmith|RobS]]<sup>[[User talk:RobSmith|''Give Peace a Chance!'']]</sup> 01:10, September 24, 2023 (EDT)

::Now, one can argue that the priest who "informally" interrogated Haushofer broke the priest-penitent privilege recognized under the law, but that's neither here nor there, as far as our resident expert is concerned. He don't care. Why should he be troubled or concerned about such trivial things as facts?  :::[[User:RobSmith|RobS]]<sup>[[User talk:RobSmith|''Give Peace a Chance!'']]</sup>

Rereading Haushofer's WP bio today, there is all sorts of very interesting information there (I wish User:Geoplitican were here right now). For example,

:''Haushofer developed Geopolitik from widely varied sources, including the writings of [[Oswald Spengler]], Alexander Humboldt, Karl Ritter, Friedrich Ratzel, Rudolf Kjellén, and [[Halford J. Mackinder]]

Mackinder makes a reappearance in our day today, driving the current US policy in [[Ukraine]] as outlined by User:Geopolitician in his article on [[Zbigniew Brzezinski]]'s, ''[[The Grand Chessboard]]''. User:Geo is the one who alerted me to this, cause I never paid much attention to anything coming from Brzezinski, the [[Truman Institute]], or any other Democrat so-called "foreign policy" experts. I never even imagined they took themselves seriously, until now. While I recognized Brzezinski as a vehement [[Russophobe]], I had no idea he held such power and influence  over [[leftist]]s and the [[CFR]] nearly 20 years after his disastrous tenure as [[National Security Advisor]] until User:Geo produced the factual evidence. [[User:RobSmith|RobS]]<sup>[[User talk:RobSmith|''Give Peace a Chance!'']]</sup> 23:52, September 24, 2023 (EDT)