Optimism bias

Tali Sharot in the journal Current Biology, wrote about optimism bias:

“

The optimism bias is defined as the difference between a person's expectation and the outcome that follows. If expectations are better than reality, the bias is optimistic; if reality is better than expected, the bias is pessimistic. The extent of the optimism bias is thus measured empirically by recording an individual's expectations before an event unfolds and contrasting those with the outcomes that transpire. This methodology reveals, for instance, that students expect to receive higher starting salaries and more job offers than they end up getting. People tend to underestimate how long a project will take to complete and how much it will cost. Most of us predict deriving greater pleasure from a vacation than we subsequently do, and we anticipate encountering more positive events in an upcoming month (such as receiving a gift or enjoying a movie) than we end up experiencing (Figure 1A). Across many different methods and domains, studies consistently report that a large majority of the population (about 80% according to most estimates) display an optimism bias. Optimistic errors seem to be an integral part of human nature, observed across gender, race, nationality and age.

”

Quote

“Never underestimate how wrong you can be!” - Dan Peña, American businessman

See also

• Dunning-Kruger effect
• Optimism
• Attitude

External links

Article:

• Why do we overestimate the probability of success?, Decision Lab

Videos:

• Optimism bias, Video playlist