Irenaeus, Siteadmin, Check users, oversight, Administrators
351,424
edits
Changes
→Personal characteristics of superforecasters according to the research
== Characteristics of excellent forecasters according to data from the Good Judgement Project ==
== Characteristics of excellent forecasters according to data from the Good Judgement Project ==
[[Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction]] is a 2016 book about [[forecasting]] written by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner.
The book reports on a wealth of data coming from the [https://goodjudgment.com/ The Good Judgment Project] (which started in 2011), which demonstrates that well-chosen selected amateur forecasters who demonstrated their ability to accurately forecast were often more accurate than subject matter experts.<ref>"[https://www.economist.com/news/books-and-arts/21666098-forecasting-talent-luckily-it-can-be-learned-unclouded-vision Unclouded vision]". ''The Economist''. September 26, 2015. Retrieved September 26, 2015.</ref>
Characteristics of "superforecasters":<ref>[https://jaknguyen.medium.com/superforecasting-the-art-and-science-of-prediction-summary-7d2bb0eea2e1 Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction — Summary]</ref><ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20180719205012/https://research-doc.credit-suisse.com/docView?language=ENG&format=PDF&source_id=em&document_id=1053681521&serialid=gRAGx5o9KjpeAGBLPq7bpyJRa6r6fj06KjHB6PGBbGU%3D Sharpening Your Forecasting Skills], Credit Suisse's overview of the Good Judgement Project's research and the work of Philip E. Tetlock</ref>
Characteristics of "superforecasters":<ref>[https://jaknguyen.medium.com/superforecasting-the-art-and-science-of-prediction-summary-7d2bb0eea2e1 Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction — Summary]</ref><ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20180719205012/https://research-doc.credit-suisse.com/docView?language=ENG&format=PDF&source_id=em&document_id=1053681521&serialid=gRAGx5o9KjpeAGBLPq7bpyJRa6r6fj06KjHB6PGBbGU%3D Sharpening Your Forecasting Skills], Credit Suisse's overview of the Good Judgement Project's research and the work of Philip E. Tetlock</ref>
*[https://fs.blog/ten-commandments-for-superforecasters/ Ten Commandments for Aspiring Superforecasters]
*[https://fs.blog/ten-commandments-for-superforecasters/ Ten Commandments for Aspiring Superforecasters]
*[https://goodjudgment.com/superforecasters-toolbox-beliefs/ Superforecasters’ Toolbox: Beliefs as Hypotheses], Good Judgement Project website
*[https://goodjudgment.com/superforecasters-toolbox-beliefs/ Superforecasters’ Toolbox: Beliefs as Hypotheses], Good Judgement Project website
== Weather forecasting ==
== Weather forecasting ==