Changes

{{Cquote|Xi Jinping now has a command of China's political system unrivaled since Mao with (very) few limits on his ability to advance his statist and nationalist policy agenda. But with no dissenting voices to challenge his views, Xi's ability to make big long-term mistakes is also unrivaled. That's a massive global challenge given China's outsized role in the world economy.

{{Cquote|Xi Jinping now has a command of China's political system unrivaled since Mao with (very) few limits on his ability to advance his statist and nationalist policy agenda. But with no dissenting voices to challenge his views, Xi's ability to make big long-term mistakes is also unrivaled. That's a massive global challenge given China's outsized role in the world economy.

We see risks in three areas this year, all stemming from Maximum Xi. The ill-effects of centralized decision-making on public health will continue with the spread of Covid-19. Xi's drive for state control of China's economy will produce arbitrary decisions, policy volatility, and heightened uncertainty for a country already weakened by two years of extreme pandemic-mitigation efforts. Finally, Xi's nationalist views and assertive foreign policy will increasingly provoke resistance from the West and from China's Asian neighbors.<ref>[https://finance.yahoo.com/news/eurasia-group-publishes-top-risks-110000770.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9yYXRpb25hbHdpa2kub3JnLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAALIHBwLYbh4x1jBSKOHbkFoiqsLaoqhonc8ESijGhCSTqg_4vZPziF7b68IrhJfdPbu8zQhpV1FHlMfmDjbIVCUk41vltMrI-qnet6U19B6k0rM1ah0MBZcwGSJM3T_BaEciT8RielUcHfC6lAyvEptGfEDOvQ0MpXMp8E-DJ9V4 Eurasia Group publishes "Top Risks" predictions for 2023], Yahoo Finance, January 3, 2023 at 6:00 AM EST</ref>}}

We see risks in three areas this year, all stemming from Maximum Xi. The ill-effects of centralized decision-making on public health will continue with the spread of Covid-19. Xi's drive for state control of China's economy will produce arbitrary decisions, policy volatility, and heightened uncertainty for a country already weakened by two years of extreme pandemic-mitigation efforts. Finally, Xi's nationalist views and assertive foreign policy will increasingly provoke resistance from [[the West]] and from China's Asian neighbors.<ref>[https://finance.yahoo.com/news/eurasia-group-publishes-top-risks-110000770.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9yYXRpb25hbHdpa2kub3JnLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAALIHBwLYbh4x1jBSKOHbkFoiqsLaoqhonc8ESijGhCSTqg_4vZPziF7b68IrhJfdPbu8zQhpV1FHlMfmDjbIVCUk41vltMrI-qnet6U19B6k0rM1ah0MBZcwGSJM3T_BaEciT8RielUcHfC6lAyvEptGfEDOvQ0MpXMp8E-DJ9V4 Eurasia Group publishes "Top Risks" predictions for 2023], Yahoo Finance, January 3, 2023 at 6:00 AM EST</ref>}}

A number of [[neoconservative]] analysts are pessimistic about [[China]]'s remaining a global power. [[Stratfor]] pitchman [[Peter Zeihan]] said in 2022, "I do not worry about China at all... I don't think that there is going to be a China for much longer."<ref>[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MKFsn8xwQSw Energy at the End of the World | Part 4 | Demographics | Peter Zeihan]</ref>  

A number of [[neoconservative]] analysts are pessimistic about [[China]]'s remaining a global power. [[Stratfor]] pitchman [[Peter Zeihan]] said in 2022, "I do not worry about China at all... I don't think that there is going to be a China for much longer."<ref>[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MKFsn8xwQSw Energy at the End of the World | Part 4 | Demographics | Peter Zeihan]</ref>